TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE

Octave nears the coast of south-central Baja.

UPDATE EFFECTIVE: MONDAY, OCTOBER 14TH at 3:50PM PST


Image 1 above: Water vapor satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Octave, as well as newly developed Tropical Storm Priscilla, and the projected track of each storm.

CURRENT STATUS: (24.1N, 113.4W, as of 2PM PDT) Tropical Storm OCTAVE is located roughly 85 miles SW of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico and tracking NNE (15°) at 8kts with max sustained winds of 45kts. Central low pressure is at 999mb.

STORM FORECAST: Octave is expected to slowly weaken and move toward the NE into the coast of south-central Baja over Tuesday.

Some bad things about Octave for Southern California swell
1) Small size. Tropical storm force winds only extend about 70 miles from the center during its reign.
2) Tracked along the edge of the SoCal swell window the past couple days, with about half of the northerly aimed wind-fetch of tropical storm force wind to the east of the cutoff line for the SoCal swell window. Storm is now east of this line.
3) Expected to fall apart over south-central Baja on Tuesday.
4) The steep angled little SSE swell (156-161°) that will spawn from Octave will be limited to select locations of SoCal, while most areas will not see any of this energy.

Some good things about Octave
1) It was in the SoCal swell window (just barely) and took a northerly track right at us.
2) The strongest section of the storm had been on the eastern side of the system, with those winds pointed northward.
3) Not much opposing NW wind/windswell running down the coast of Baja right now.
4) Baja Sur is getting plenty of waves from Octave, but with variable conditions throughout the region (definitely lots of rain), as the storm is moving in.

SOCAL SWELL POTENTIAL
A small, shorter period SSE swell (156-161°) will move into Southern CA over Tuesday night into Wednesday. Well exposed breaks (primarily of North OC) will only see 1-2'+ waves off this energy on Wednesday, with select tropical swell magnets of North OC occasionally hitting 3'. This will then drop out going into Thursday, but reinforcing tropical swell from PRISCILLA is due to move in.

NOTE: Any areas without an excellent view to this SSE Octave swell will see less (most areas none) of this energy. For example - Santa Barbara, parts of Ventura, much of LA (South Bay), and much of San Diego County.


- Jonathan Warren and the Surfline Forecast Team
Follow us on Twitter @SLForecast.

Next Update: No more updates, unless Octave changes course.



Image 2 above: Surfline's HurricaneTrak showing the wave heights around Octave, the projected track, and the cutoff line for the SoCal swell window.

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UPDATE EFFECTIVE: SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13TH at 2PM PST


Image 1 above: Water vapor satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Octave, as well as the projected track of the storm.

CURRENT STATUS: (19.2N, 112.7W, as of 2PM PDT) Tropical Storm OCTAVE is located roughly 315 miles SW of the southern tip of Baja and tracking NNW (335°) at 12kts with max sustained winds of 55kts. Central low pressure is at 995mb.

STORM FORECAST: Octave may strengthen a little over the next 12hrs, as it is still over warm water. However, any significant strengthening is not likely, as the storm has recently been ingesting cooler/drier air and shear is gradually increasing. After 12hrs; Octave will be moving over progressively cooler waters, shear will continue, and forward speed will be slowing down. The forecast storm track will have Octave turn North then eventually NNE-NE over the next few days. Possibly hitting south-central Baja as a depression by Thursday the 17th.

Some bad things about Octave for Southern California swell
1) Small size. Tropical storm force winds extend out only 45 miles from the center.
2) On the edge of the SoCal swell window. About half of the northerly aimed wind-fetch of tropical storm force wind is still east of the cutoff line for the SoCal swell window.
3) Expected to start a weakening trend by Monday.
4) The steep angled little SSE swell (156-161°) that will spawn from Octave will be limited to select locations of SoCal, while most areas will not see any of this energy.

Some good things about Octave
1) It is in the SoCal swell window (just barely) and taking a track right at us.
2) The strongest section of the storm is on the eastern side of the system, with those winds pointed northward.
3) Not much opposing NW wind/windswell running down the coast of Baja right now.
4) Baja Sur will get plenty of waves from Octave, but may get the storm as well.

SOCAL SWELL POTENTIAL
At this point, if Octave continues as forecast, we're looking for a small (likely very small to minimal traces) of shorter period SSE swell (156-161°) to move into Southern CA over Tuesday night into Wednesday the 16th. Top exposed breaks (primarily of North OC) will see 1-2' off this energy on Wednesday, possibly hitting waist high (3') on occasion for select magnets. This will then drop out going into Thursday.

NOTE: Any areas without an excellent view to this SSE swell will see less (most areas none) of this energy. For example - Santa Barbara, parts of Ventura, much of LA (South Bay), and much of San Diego County.


- Jonathan Warren and the Surfline Forecast Team
Follow us on Twitter @SLForecast.

Next Update: Monday, October 14th



Image 2 above: Surfline's HurricaneTrak showing the wave heights around Octave, the projected track, and the cutoff line for the SoCal swell window.

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Category: Hurricanes