TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA

Former tropical storm Priscilla dwindles to a depression today

UPDATE EFFECTIVE: TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15TH at 2:50PM PST


Image 1 above: Surfline's HurricaneTrak showing the wave heights around Priscilla and the projected track.

CURRENT STATUS: (17.7N, 117.5W, as of 2PM PDT) Tropical Depression PRISCILLA is located roughly 610 miles SW of the southern tip of Baja and tracking WNW (300°) at 7kts with max sustained winds of 30kts. Central low pressure is at 1006mb.

STORM FORECAST: Priscilla has weakened to a depression today while tracking slowly to the WNW. This storm is not expected to restrengthen at this time, but may linger as a depression over the next couple days as it meanders westward. This is the last update on Priscilla, unless it ends up restrengthening.

Check the SoCal Forecast for details on swell action from Priscilla.


- Jonathan Warren and the Surfline Forecast Team
Follow us on Twitter @SLForecast.

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UPDATE EFFECTIVE: MONDAY, OCTOBER 14TH at 4PM PST


Image 1 above: Water vapor satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Priscilla, as well as Tropical Storm Octave, and the projected track of each storm.

CURRENT STATUS: (15.7N, 115.8W, as of 2PM PDT) Tropical Storm PRISCILLA is located roughly 630 miles SW of the southern tip of Baja and tracking North (360°) at 8kts with max sustained winds of 40kts. Central low pressure is at 1001mb.

STORM FORECAST: Priscilla is not expected to strengthen much (if at all) over the next couple days, and will likely be weakening by Thursday, if not sooner. This storm is small in size, not well organized, and experiencing considerable wind shear. Priscilla is currently tracking slowly to the north, but is expected to eventually turn NW after about 12hrs or so.

Some bad things about Priscilla for Southern California swell
1) Small size. Tropical storm force winds extend out about 70 miles from the center.
2) Not well organized.
3) Not expected to reach hurricane status, with a weakening trend likely to start by Thursday, if not sooner.
4) Expected to start turning more westerly after about 12hrs or so.

A few good things about Priscilla
1) It is in the SoCal swell window and currently taking a slow track right at us.
2) The strongest section of the storm is on the eastern side of the system, with those winds pointed northward.
3) Not much opposing NW wind/windswell running down the coast of Baja right now.

SOCAL SWELL POTENTIAL
At this point, if Priscilla continues as forecast, we're looking for a small dose of shorter period SSE shifting South swell (167-180°) to follow Wednesday's OCTAVE swell for Thurs/Fri (17th-18th). Well exposed breaks (primarily of North OC) will continue to see mainly 1-2'+ waves off the Priscilla energy over Thurs/Fri, with occasional 3' sets for select magnets. This will then drop out going into the weekend.

NOTE: Any areas without an excellent view to this SSE-South Priscilla swell will see less (most areas none) of this energy. For example - Santa Barbara, parts of Ventura, much of LA (South Bay), and much of San Diego County.


- Jonathan Warren and the Surfline Forecast Team
Follow us on Twitter @SLForecast.

Next Update: Tuesday, October 15th



Image 2 above: Surfline's HurricaneTrak showing the wave heights around Priscilla, the projected track, and the cutoff line for the SoCal swell window out to the east of the storm.

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Category: Hurricanes