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TWO WEEK NOTICE
Coming soon: The Atlantic Hurricane Season 2006
The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicks off another busy year on June 1st. While hopes are high that the waves will be better and destruction will be less than last year, Surfline's East Coast Forcaster - Mike Watson - still wanted to give us all a heads up for what's in store. - Ed
So hurricane season is just around the corner. The season that can either make or break us has come around with so much hype after the last two years I am ready to sell of my stuff and move to Kansas. Here in Florida, things have just gone haywire. We have spent millions of dollars replacing beaches and dunes; insurance premiums are on the rise with State Farm pushing for a 70% rate hike. Other insurance companies have fled the state - what a mess.
With that, I wanted to add a little perspective on where just to look for storm formation in the Atlantic ocean as we move through the season - a little insight on what to look for and where as we mover through what hopefully will be a quieter year landfall wise from these gyrating beasts.
The first couple months of the season are usually very quiet with only one or two systems showing up. These are generally very weak and usually will only make it to weak tropical storm status - enough to provide some rain. But these systems can sometimes wreak havoc in other ways - recall Allison in 2001 as the remnants of this system dumped a couple of feet of rain in the Houston area causing massive and widespread flooding. We look for June storms to form in the Gulf of Mexico or NW Caribbean and usually these systems will form along the tail end of a stalled frontal boundary. We very rarely see a storm for outside of this region.
July is also not a very big storm producing month but we again focus on the Gulf o Mexico for storm formation. We also begin to look for storm formation at spots along the warm Gulf Stream waters. We can get storm formation east of the Windward Islands but this generally only occurs about once every 3 or 4 years on average.
August and September arrive and it is on. Waters are becoming warmer and easterly waves coming off of the African coast become more frequent as both the low level and upper level jet streams become better established over Africa. Believe it or not, it is the yearly northern progression of the Asian monsoon over the Indian Ocean that brings us into the heart of our season over here in the Atlantic.
As this large gyrating system reaches its northern most location towards the end of August and early September, the mid/upper level jet streams that produce the conditionally unstable easterly waves of low pressure in the Atlantic are in place. This is when the Cape Verde season really kicks in and tropical waves leave the African coast every 3 to 4 days.
On average, we also see the strongest storms of the season form. A strong category five storm slowly progressing W/WNW can light up reefs and points from the Caribbean all the way up into New England. Unfortunately much of the SE coast in to Florida is blocked off from swell coming from this low latitude.
Right around the middle of September is when the season begins its trend downward. The Asian Monsoon begins its southerly retreat in the Indian Ocean and Cape Verde storms become more infrequent. However, we still need to look throughout the entire Atlantic Basin for storm formation but as we move towards the end of the month, we begin looking closer to home.
October brings the onset of fall and the Caribbean becomes a prime focal point for storm formation. We are also looking at spots north of the Leeward and Windward Islands for storm formation as well but the Caribbean basin is largely the biggest producer of storms in October.
By the end of October and into November the season is all but done. By November, if a storm does form it usually occurs in the Caribbean. There are some exceptions - one will occasionally pop up in the Central Atlantic but by and large the season is done.
There you go - 2 weeks notice has been served. Be ready, stay tuned to Surfline and our free hurricane tracking tool HurricaneTrak containing the latest NHC updates and forecast throughout the season. Finally, make sure you can survive at least three days on your own with no outside help especially if a macker like Katrina hits your area. Happy Hurricane Season!
RELATED LINKS:
2006 Hurricane Prognosis
2005 Hurricane Wrap Up
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Mike Watson
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