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California and Hawaii long-range forecast
The following is taken from WAVETRAKS, Surfline's free monthly newsletter. Check it out. Subscribe.
I love October. The weather gets colder, it's football season, Halloween costumes rock, and the surf gets really good. Usually when an average person thinks about surfing they almost always associate summer into the mix. The reality is that fall almost always has better surf than the summer. This is due to the fact it that fall is the portion of the year where consistent swell energy and good weather conditions collide, particularly along the U.S. West Coast. After looking at the long-range models and some of the current weather patterns that the North Pacific regions are slipping into, I don't think this fall will be any different.
The South Pacific will stay active throughout the month but may start to slow down a touch as we head toward November and the Southern Hemisphere starts to move further into its springtime. We can expect at least a couple of decent, playful sized Southern Hemi swells over the next few weeks. Those swells won't be as big as what we saw in September but they should do a decent job of keeping waves at the S-SW facing breaks.
The tropics will continue to see some action as well, particularly through the beginning of the month. Water temps in the EPAC tropical region are still pretty warm, but the cooler water along the Pacific side of Baja will continue to be a TS killer. One of the differences in this period of our Tropical Season is that the tropical systems have more of a tendency to start to "recurve" like a wobbly boomerang back toward the West Coast (and Baja) if they move into the mid-latitudes. This recurve sometimes can put us directly along the movement path of the storm, which means we would likely see a much better swell than if the storm was moving at a more oblique angle. Unfortunately the recurve also takes the storm into the colder water in the mid-latitudes so it would fall apart quickly. Cross your fingers that we get at least one good-sized Hurricane to form in the California swell window at the lower latitudes before the season ends.
The North Pacific is already starting to grind to life and its pulse is going to get stronger as we move throughout the month. For the first part of the month expect most of the storm track to stay in the upper latitudes as high-pressure holds through the middle of the NPAC. This means most of the swell energy will be aimed at the Pacific NW, Northern, and Central California but we can still expect some of the more energetic storms to send some waves to both Hawaii and Southern California as well. As we move towards the end of October high-pressure will start to lose its grip on the mid-latitudes and NPAC storm track will widen enough to get some decent-sized NW swells into the lesser-exposed regions. The NPAC is a very active storm region and we can usually count on at least one large NW swell for Northern/Central California before we hit November.
Weather-wise, Hawaii will be able to count on consistent tradewinds with a chance for a few passing tropical waves to move in from the east. California will be pretty nice overall with high-pressure sitting over most of the State. This high will shift from time to time and we will see some periods of offshore winds (Santa Ana winds in SoCal). With a little luck those winds will manage to time it right and match up with a good swell.
--
Adam Wright
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