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REPEAT PERFORMANCE
Another above average Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2005
Sorry Florida, we have another above-average hurricane season coming. This year's outlook, believe it or not, is almost identical to what the Climate Prediction Center was calling for last May. In fact, they're actually calling for a little more activity than what was expected a year ago.
Does that mean we are going to see another bastard of a year, which'll ram five named storms -- including 3 major, CAT 3 hurricanes -- into the Sunshine State as in '04?
Does that mean that I'll average 3 hours of sleep during September and October -- mainly due to photog DJ Struntz's frantic, late-night calls? Well, I'd say the probability of the latter is pretty high but we are all praying the former doesn't happen. And statistically it's not that likely Florida will get tagged as bad in '05.
The Climate Prediction Center is calling for 12-15 tropical storms of which 7-9 are expected to become hurricanes and 3-5 of those becoming major hurricanes. Meanwhile, Dr. Gray over at Colorado State is calling for 13 named storms, 7 of which will be hurricanes, and 3 of those major hurricanes. An average hurricane season based on data from 1950-2000 is 11 named storms, 6 of those becoming hurricanes, and 3 becoming major hurricanes.
So, why is '05 gonna be another above average year? Um, well, persistence seems like as good of a forecast tool as ever: it's been above average pretty much every year since the epic '95 season -- so this year's gotta be too, right? It's not quite that simple -- it never is. Don't forget that '97 and '02 weren't above normal because those were El Nino years. El Nino years tend to favor less Atlantic basin hurricane activity, namely because of unfavorable upper level winds and shear. This season we are expected to see El Nino-neutral conditions (no El Nino or La Nina).
Arguably of bigger influence to this year's expected high activity is the continuation of conditions associated with the "tropics-wide multi-decadal signal". What the heck is that? Well, it's the reason why we've had so many above average hurricane seasons (and more waves) since 1995. The signal is related to typical parameters such as high sea surface temps (SST's), favorable upper level winds, higher pressure in the upper atmosphere, and other less obvious things that you can read about here. This year's SST's in the Tropical Atlantic are expected to be exceptionally warmer than normal which just throws a bunch more lighter fluid on the "above average season" prediction fire.
Surfwise, this above average expectation also means there is a good shot we could see several tropical swells this season. Look for the majority of this year's tropical cyclone swells, as usual, to come from mid August through October. A couple, however, will occur outside of this time frame. Remember that the best surf producing storms are those that have large and intense wind fields, move towards us, and perhaps most importantly recurve before we get in the direct wind flow of the storm. We like strong storms that recurve (or stall) out at sea so we get swell and not the bad weather.
You can learn all about this by picking up the most useful hurricane surf prediction tool ever made -- Surfline's Hurricanetrak Poster.
And as hurricane season swings into gear, stay tuned to Surfline's free comprehensive hurricane resource -- Hurricanetrak. We've updated it this year to include an archive so you can go back years and compare seasons yourself.
Happy tracking, a
nd let the games begin.
--
Mark Willis
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