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What's up with the Gloom?
Breaking down the cool, cloudy California summer
By:
Kevin Wallis
Photos: NCEP Reanalysis Derived data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/
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We've been in a pretty stagnant weather pattern this summer; our normally gloomy June continued throughout much of July and even into early August
(save for a brief few days in mid July when we had clear skies all day and warm weather, at least in Southern California, as high pressure expanded westward from the Central US). Even on those days when it wasn't gloomy all day, beach temps have been a little cooler than normal.
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In a 'normal' or average summer, the semi permanent ridge of high pressure in the North Pacific (named appropriately, the Semi Permanent North Pacific High ) is located to the northeast of Hawaii and in the southwest part of the Gulf of Alaska. At the same time, thermal low pressure is located in the southwest United States (local low pressure areas due to very warm air rising, as it is less dense/more buoyant than the surrounding slighter cooler/more dense air). Our pattern for this summer has been a bit different. The semi permanent North Pacific High has been located deeper in the Gulf of Alaska (ie., more to the north and east than what we normally see). At the same time, we've had what meteorologists call rather persistent 'troughing' over the Western US and East Pacific (primarily over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California). This basically means that low pressure, at either the surface or upper levels of the atmosphere, was over that region, promoting onshore flow and cool, cloudy weather along the west coast. This troughing pattern was coupled with cooler than normal water temps along the coast, thanks to consistent upwelling due to northwest wind, which helped to further enhance our marine layer and lead to a cloudier, cooler and gloomier July and now August than what we experience on average. "This troughing pattern was coupled with cooler than normal water temps along the coast, thanks to consistent upwelling due to northwest wind, which helped to further enhance our marine layer and lead to a cloudier, cooler and gloomier July and now August than what we experience on average. "
This pattern may be attributed to the lingering effects of the moderate El Nino we experienced in early 2010, although it is tough to definitively pin it on that. What we do know is that we are trending toward a La Nina pattern in late 2010 and most climate models continue that trend into early 2011. We won't get into a detailed seasonal forecast and what that means for the West Coast at this time, but we'll likely see more Santa Ana days develop this year as compared to the fall and winter of 2009-2010; cooler than normal weather, especially in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California; less precipitation than normal, especially through Southern California; and, most important of all, our swells will tend to be more northwest in direction, versus west-northwest or west, which can really have a drastic effect on the size of surf in Southern California and spots further south. Stay tuned, we'll have further details and likely a much more in depth North Pacific and West Coast seasonal forecast as we move into the Fall. MORE FORECAST SURFLINE HOME PAGE |
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Comments: (26) Add Your Comment
Timothy Ross 08/20/2010 10:39 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
I love the cold water and clouds...keeps the crowds down. keep on complainin'
Alan Reynolsa 08/20/2010 10:16 AM
James'I trying to NOT get people that surf huntington,to go to Rj's soory u misunderstood me Bro.
Alan Gillies 08/18/2010 11:01 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
You can see the larger scale cold water event in animation at this site. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?climate_sst160+/100d/5d
Alan Gillies 08/18/2010 11:00 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
Don't bother digging for the data. Just put your toes in the water. Today's water temps: Newport 59, Solana Beach 58, Zuma 57, Ventura 59, Malibu 58, San Onofre 58. Mike Dippel posted he surfed southern ventura county this weekend and it was 51. Normal summer temps are about 15+ degrees warmer than today's temps. Which spots have only been 1-3 degrees off normal? BTW Thanks for doing these type of scientific articles. They're always interesting.
editor reply:
Yes, I'm very aware that the water is quite cold right now. By 'normal' I mean the longer term monthly and seasonal average water temp, and not the day to day fluctuations due to a current or recent upwelling event. Water temps, on a long term average, are not 15 degrees colder than normal. I was probably a little low in my comment of 1-3 degrees too low; it's probably closer to 3-5 degrees. The link to the animation you sent actually illustrates that well.
Derek Drinan 08/18/2010 04:31 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
uhhhhh...what?
James Strothen 08/18/2010 11:22 AM
don't listen to Alan I think he's trying to send people to RJ's so better spots, like goldenwest, are uncrowded. The RJ's will make you very sick, the water is filthy.
Tyler Jones 08/17/2010 10:18 PM
A little to scientific for me but overall nice article
Mike Dippel 08/17/2010 09:00 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
Kevin, nice article!
I surfed in southern ventura county this weekend and it was 51...
Alan Reynolds 08/17/2010 03:59 PM
Hey the RJ's will be going off,just wait for summer crap to turn to fall perfection,but it might justt be too fast and hollow for an HB regular,,LoL,it usually starts breaking the correct way from mid sept-november,back-door bowls>>>see ya in the TUBE !!!
weatherman 08/17/2010 03:14 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Nickname
Won't mention the forecasters name, but I sent an email to Surfline back on 7/28 asking about the cold water. His reply was the water temps are "not too far off the mark". When I'm grabbing my 4/3 full instead my trunks in summer, seems like that's way off the mark. Glad to see you agree Kevin
editor reply:
On average and across the summer, we have been a little cooler than normal; off the top of my head I'd say 1-3 degrees, depending on location, but would need to dig further to truly verify. This latest upwelling event definitely has us even cooler and we'll have to see if/how temps rebound for the second half of the month.
Alexander Jelinek 08/17/2010 02:55 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
Phillipe, you've smoked one too many joints my friend. The weather is what creates the surf.
Phillipe Ramirez 08/17/2010 10:26 AM
My God who cares about the weather, If your a real surfer it shouldn't matter. The sun is for the ladies on the beach and their the one's who should be bummed.Have Fun at all cost.Zoo Port Westside RJ Kicks ass..
eric 08/16/2010 11:01 PM
I'm with you Gary. Cool? It's been hot as hell all summer in the E.C. (El Cajon)
Willliam 08/16/2010 09:49 PM
No kidding TT the river jetties have been horrible and the water is gross. It made me have a fever with orange snot in my nose...I'll surf 17th st HB instead, or maybe Bolsa
Spencer Lillywhite 08/16/2010 08:48 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
View All Comments (26 comments)
As a central california surfer, the more northly swells sound absolutely delightful. El Nino winter sucked up here with too much rain. Some nice NW swell is very welcome news.
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