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While summer is still technically a few weeks away
- the solstice is June 21st - surfers, especially West Coast surfers, are already thinking about the Easy Season. They've already enjoyed a couple solid Southern Hemisphere swells in the last couple weeks.
Of course even as this current swell is starting to fade, everyone's already asking about the next one. And the one after that. And the rest of summer. Such is the nature of riding waves. |
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We figured it was time to bring in the forecast expert down the hall. Sean Collins has been studying summer swells for the West Coast since the sixties. First, here's a concise, easy- to-reference overview for the coming season. June-August '11 ~ Surfline Ratings (1-10 scale) California/Central Baja = 5 (Average) The Good: -Continuing local northwest wind swell creates more surf -Moderate+ southern hemisphere south swell activity in June and August but slow in July The Bad: -Cold water until mid August -Stronger onshore winds and south wind eddies thru July -Cloudy cool beach weather thru July -Likely increased red tide plankton blooms into July -Very little hurricane swell likely until mid August and September Mainland Mexico/Cabo/Baja = 7 (Good) The Good: -Moderate+ southern hemisphere south swell activity June and August, average July -Moderate tropical storm/hurricane swell activity June thru September The Bad: -July could be slow for southern hemisphere swells -June tropical storms/hurricanes could turn north quickly into Mainland Mexico Hawaii = 6 (Average) The Good: -Continuing strong northeast trade swell through June with some late northwest swell pulses -Moderate+ southern hemisphere south swell activity June, and just average in July and August -Moderate tropical storm/hurricane swell activity possible in Central Pacific tropics in July thru September The Bad: -Strong northeast trades could be a little too much at times -July thru September could be slow for southern hemisphere swells -Large area of extra warm water near Hawaii could help to pull tropical storm activity too close to Hawaii with unstable conditions (*These extended seasonal ratings are based on multiple variables -- including Pacific and Atlantic Ocean water temperatures, oceanic winds, high pressure system locations and development, upper-level wind patterns, weakening La Nina patterns, more than 35 years of record-keeping -- and some sort of secret crystal ball weather contraption hidden in Sean's office.) PACIFIC SUMMARY North Pacific: A strong eastern Pacific high-pressure system has generated strong northwesterly winds along the Pacific West Coast throughout most of the spring, and will continue this pattern throughout much of June. On the west coast, areas with good west and northwest exposure will continue to see on and off local short-period windswell activity throughout all of June and even into July. Typically, the northwest windswell activity falls off in May. The same high-pressure system will continue to generate strong northeasterly trades for Hawaii, along with strong trade swell on the windward sides. Along the Pacific West Coast, the strong northwesterly winds in the outer waters have created cold-water upwelling along most of the coast and have fueled a stronger California current running from north to south. As a result, ocean water temperatures are much cooler than normal all the way down through Baja California and into the tropics off Mexico. During recent south swells in May, surfers traveling to Southern Baja have reported gale force northwesterly winds and water temps that have dropped all the way down to the low to mid 50's in many areas. Clearly the coldest water temps of the entire year. The colder water temperatures along the coast will naturally create a greater variance in air temperatures between the land and ocean, and this will fuel more marine layer and clouds along the coast, as well as stronger afternoon onshore winds. Coastal eddy weather patterns will also appear occasionally in June and July with clouds and southerly winds, and on those days the afternoon glass offs will be the call. The June gloom phenomenon will likely last well into July until the water temperatures warm up in August. Tropics: Springtime weather along the Pacific West Coast often dictates what kind of hurricane season we might encounter in the Eastern Pacific Tropics. Hurricanes need water temperatures of 80 degrees Fahrenheit or more to develop into swell-generating storms. Water temps are still very cool off Baja, and all of that cold water will drift farther south to develop a large cold-water barrier in the tropics south of Baja. Recent satellite SST measurements have reported water temperatures 5 degrees (F) lower than normal just south of Baja. Water temps in the tropics off Mainland Mexico are actually a few degrees warmer than normal so we will see more typical development of tropical storms and hurricanes further south in June and July, and the tip of Baja and south-facing spots along northern mainland Mexico will pick up most of this swell activity. Once the hurricanes begin to approach California's swell window south of Baja, they'll run into the cold water and weaken before they can send swell to California or many of the spots in Central Baja. At this point it will be unlikely for California or Central Baja spots to receive significant hurricane swell activity until later in the season after the water temps south of Baja warm up in august and September. In the Central Pacific, there is an extra warm area of water above Hawaii that is 7 degrees warmer than normal. If this warm water moves down into the tropics just east of Hawaii it may help to fuel tropical development in the Central Pacific in July through September. South Pacific: Early season storm activity has been above average in the southern hemisphere and the Pacific West Coast has received a number of significant south swells from Down Under through the end of May. Once again, high-pressure systems can make or break a good swell season, and the location and strength of the South Pacific highs opened up a great swell window during our 2011 spring. We expect this trend to continue with more good south swells through most of June. By July however, blocking high-pressure is likely to develop over much of the South Pacific, so we may go through some small periods of surf in California and Central Baja in July and early August. California and Baja surf should improve throughout August and September as the high-pressure swell window opens up again in the South Pacific; along with more hurricane swell activity. MORE FORECAST SURFLINE HOME PAGE |
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Comments: (35) Add Your Comment
Eric Schuff 06/11/2011 03:25 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
sure frances or should i say..florida- i agree all about board selection and a positive outlook. waves will come so be ready
Frances Dash 06/11/2011 09:06 AM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
Stop your bitching!! We've had epic weather and super fun surf since January until yesterday!! I live 1 block from da beach and see it everyday!! There was not one day under waste high in south S.D. Since last October!!! So stop whining and order a fish!!!
Gary Jacobson 06/09/2011 09:13 AM ** EDITOR'S PICK
Any comment on how the NPDO affected this La Nina?
editor reply:
More likely how the La Nina has affected the NPDO? (NPDO is the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation that represents cold or warm water anomalies in the California Current off Oregon/Washington. It can be used to forecast Salmon runs 2-3 years later and is fascinating work.) The NPDO is driven by winds in the North Pacific. Strong NW winds create colder water and upwelling, SW winds create warmer water. The NPDO is also greatly influenced by El Nino and La Nina episodes. Wind is driven by high pressure, and the location and strength of high pressure systems can therefore greatly influence seasonal swells, water/air temperatures, and the NPDO. Once we can forecast the long term location and strength of high pressure systems, we'll be able to increase our forecasting accuracy for waves, weather, the NPDO, and Salmon much farther out in advance. There is also some thought that solar activity might influence the location of high and low pressures on the Earth's surface. There sure is a lot we don't know. Sean... PS. Here's a good link for more info on the NPDO. http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/a-ecinhome.cfm
Wayno 06/08/2011 09:11 AM
In 2008 & 2009 we had 2 super warm non-gloomy wave-filled summers in a row. Makes sense were having 2 bummer summers in a row. I think the weather goes in cycles. Maybe we should succumb to the fact that this is what is being served & we should make the best of it. Keeps the crowds down.
dickhaloren 06/07/2011 10:41 AM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Nickname
Not once last summer was I able to shed my fullsuit. Looks like more of the same for this summer in SoCal? Endless Bummer II?
B-Ray 06/05/2011 01:59 PM
Last year was the coldest Summer time water temps I can remember in North SD county (and I've surfed here for over 30 years) I sure hope you are wrong about your cold water predictions, but I trust your opinion over most, and I just hope that this time, you will be wrong.
max acosta 06/05/2011 09:44 AM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
I don't get it. We had 5 months of June gloom last year cause the water was warm, and now we're gonna get it again cause the water is cold? I hope, for once, that you're wrong.
editor reply:
I don't know where you were at, but the water was pretty cold in most of California during 2010 spring and summer. Lots of wind and cold water upwelling during spring 2010 too, but 2011 has been windier and colder. Once the wind stops we'll begin to warm up and if we get a long hot period with no winds everything may improve faster.
Will 06/05/2011 09:39 AM
Didn't realize the east coast was in the north pacific
Scott 06/05/2011 07:15 AM
Nice of ol' Seany boy to give us his opinion, only one problem. He forgot the entire eastern seaboard.
editor reply:
Notice the title: "North Pacific Summer Outlook". The Atlantic Summer Outlook will launch this week.
Putzy 06/05/2011 05:17 AM
I'm tired of shrinkage after all the cold water sessions
Roberte 06/04/2011 10:45 PM
You know what I'm with you michael cozad I think its gonna be an awesome summer and you know what else the waters got to warm up sometime and I got some rad AI trunks and O'neil boardshorts for christmas that I gotta break in!
Peter Radford 06/04/2011 08:13 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name ** EDITOR'S PICK
The "Weather Guys" were wrong about how wet the winter of 2010-2011 was to be in SoCal: They predicted dry, high pressure, a typical La Nina. However, it was wetter than normal in SoCal; we got a bomb Pineapple Express and some other great rains, and here in O-side we've done well with rain. I read that the models will be re-evaluated now with this new data (a wet La Nina). But, Surfline was spot-on. They have pointed out that La Nina years can deliver strong storms and good swell, sometimes...
editor reply:
Agreed. Quite honestly, weather can be harder to predict than swells and NOAA and the NWS guys really do a good job IMO. Last season was a typical La Nina until the high pressure shifted and we did get that short period of tropical moisture that fed the rain. Good thing too, because the snow in the mountains went off! Did you hear they're calling for possible snow in the local mountains again tomorrow? In June? Geez...
Loungedaddy 06/04/2011 08:08 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Nickname
I'm a first year subscriber to Surfline and I must say this is terrific work - even if it's off, it's better than what most TV weatherman/women have done. They typically can't get the next day's weather right - only 12 months away!
Cole Phelps 06/04/2011 04:29 PM
Dammit, I was hoping the wedge would be good this year :(
Kevin 06/04/2011 03:04 PM
View All Comments (35 comments)
killer article guys. If it wasn't for you guys, and super articles like this. I would still think that waves will be good from low to incoming high tide (as I did when I was a kid). How else could the waves pick up? Hahaha. Thanks guys.!
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ABOUT SURFLINE'S COMMENTS: Surfline comments are intended to foster and continue a community discussion and/or debate on the topic brought up by the feature above. We encourage you to comment and express your opinion. Before commenting, you should know that Surfline Comments are moderated, which means that comments containing personal attacks, excessive profanity, or off-topic remarks may not be posted. Also, 'EDITOR'S PICKS' are comments that we feel capture points-of-view from all sides of the issue at hand, not necessarily the comments Surfline most agrees with. Thanks. --the editors
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