Registered or Premium Member? LOG IN | Not a Premium Member? TRY PREMIUM FREE NOW
|
EL NIÑO ATLANTIC OUTLOOK
Breaking down the fall/winter Atlantic season
|
|
In the first part of our El Niño Outlook
we discussed the current state of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how this is likely to impact our storm track and the resulting swell for spots across the Pacific. Here, in part two, we'll take a look at how El Niño could potentially impact the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico over the fall and winter of 2009/2010. [Click here for NOAA's 10/8/09 update.]
|
|
This winter, current model and forecast projections suggest we will see a moderate strength El Niño which historically means a change in the typical wintertime storm track over the eastern half of the US. This does not necessarily mean several powerful nor'easters or consistent pumping surf. However, assuming we will see a moderate El Niño event as expected, it allows us to look at the climatology of past El Niño winters of similar strength and note the typical patterns and trends we see. Once we have an idea of the typical weather patterns and trends, we can apply this knowledge to present a general outlook for the surf in the coming fall and winter months. Check out the regions below as we discuss the potential impacts of the current warm phase of ENSO over the next couple of months. "In conclusion, it appears this winter has the potential to be a good one for spots across the western half of the Atlantic basin."
Research over the past several decades has shown a marked decrease in tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic basin during El Niño events due to an increase in unfavorable westerly wind shear in the tropics. This year is no different. As we close out the month of September, typically the peak of the Atlantic tropical cyclone season, we have notched only 6 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes - below the historical averages through this part of the season and significantly lower than the average over the past 14 years when the recent upswing in tropical activity began. The outlook heading into the ten days of October does not look any more promising. Historically, as we head into the middle and second half of October, our attention turns into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, along with off the SE US coastline for tropical cyclone development. We continue to see very warm SSTs and high tropical cyclone heat potential values in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico which would be conducive for storm development. It is likely we will see another system or two develop before the season ends on November 30th, but it appears our window for long-lived, Cape Verde type systems has closed for this year. US East Coast The storm track during moderate El Niño events is typically from southeastern US towards the Canadian Maritimes. This is favorable for breaks in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast regions, where we may see a return of the nor'easter as opposed to the repeating S windswell events we saw last winter when the primarily storm track was inland over the Great Lakes. Also, for the snowboarders out there, recent research suggest an increase in the frequency of occurrence of heavy snowfall events for the northeastern US, associated with the increased EC storm track during an El Niño episode. The east coast of Florida is hit or miss depending on the storm track for each specific system - a favorably placed nor'easter can send down quality N/NE swells or we may watching out for the notorious 'NW windswell' events for the South FL region. Gulf Coast El Niño episodes historically tend to feature a strong subtropical jet stream over the southern portion of the country from late fall through winter and much of the following spring. This supplies energy and moisture to storms crossing the Gulf of Mexico which is a good thing. We see a lot of storm activity and as a result an increased frequency of pre-frontal S and SE windswell for Texas and the Florida Panhandle. Because of the southern storm track, West Florida can expect more pre-frontal S/SSW windswell events followed by post-frontal NW/WNW windswell. Overall, an El Niño pattern usually bodes well for surf for the Gulf Coast States. Caribbean With the jet stream and associated storm track at a lower latitude during an El Niño event, we typically see low pressure systems track northward along/just offshore of the US East Coast. Gusty NW winds behind these exiting systems means the Caribbean region will generally see a rather consistent run of NW swells. As a result, the cards are lining up for this to be a good winter for the breaks in the Caribbean that like NW swell. In conclusion, it appears this winter has the potential to be a good one for spots across the western half of the Atlantic basin. Keep an eye on the forecasts as we'll certainly dial you into and help you score the best surf conditions possible wherever you may be. MORE FORECAST SURFLINE HOME PAGE |
|
Comments: (11) Add Your Comment
Bru Pearce 10/27/2009 05:58 AM
Thanks very much for the forecast, great implications for some of the Windward Islands west coast breaks but also may have significant implications for some of unprotected docks and for beach erosion. Can you point me in the direction of the historical data? Previous El Niño years and accompanying swell records please.
Best regards Bru Pearce
R. Mills 10/16/2009 01:54 AM
Ok,but what about the eastern half of the Atlantic basin? Europe? More waves for Morocco, less waves for France??
editor reply:
Since we have more frequent storm activity in the North Atlantic, this would imply that there is a greater chance than normal for more swell in the eastern portion of the Atlantic. However we need to watch and see. We simply have not seen many El Nino events so this is a learning lesson for everyone.
Jay 10/14/2009 03:02 PM
Already booked for the Carribean. Hope your forecast holds.
editor reply:
we hope it holds too...
chuck allison 10/08/2009 05:30 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
I was just talking to my wife at dinner that maybe i needed to get some better wetsuit boots and gloves for this winter season and also snow boots since i think we'll be digging out more often this year---hummm, winter swells!
D. Stizzle 10/08/2009 12:25 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Nickname
This summer has sucked so bad and last winter wasnt all that great. So stoked to hear this. Bring on the NorEasters and Refracto Swells!!!!!!!
townboi 10/08/2009 10:48 AM
i didn't say el nino wasn't felt globally.. mahalo for putting words in my mouf
how is your conclusion not what I said three weeks ago? the countless dynamic variables combined with our current understandin of El nino gives us only general trends to ocean and atmospheric systems.. and you highlighted this in your "conclusion" .."Appears to be potential to be a good one.." quite a few supposed's.
i see how could be useful and enlightening to the everyday surfer but conclusion just a general trend
Chrissa 10/07/2009 11:52 AM
please let there be waves soon. this flat spell in trinidad is killing me!! :'(
Steven 10/07/2009 10:32 AM
Finally some optomisticly (postive) outlooks for us florida surfers. I live near mayport so Bring on the
Noreasters! We are done with the northwest to west winds. It has been years MAN!!!! We need Juice! Freshly squeezed winter juice.
Nick Danger 10/07/2009 10:16 AM
Yeah baby...yeah!!!!!!!!!!! We love NW swell!!!!!
New Yorker 10/07/2009 08:28 AM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Nickname
Thanks for the info and some hope !! Maybe this winter will make up for the lack of swells we are currently experiencing in the northeast.
peter flintoft 10/06/2009 02:02 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
I am confused. Are East coasters more or less likely to get Noreaster swell? So far this El Nino stuff has sucked for surfing Bah.
editor reply:
Based on the investigation of previous El Niño events, it does appear we have a greater chance for nor'easter type systems this fall and winter.
Add Your Comment:
ABOUT SURFLINE'S COMMENTS: Surfline comments are intended to foster and continue a community discussion and/or debate on the topic brought up by the feature above. We encourage you to comment and express your opinion. Before commenting, you should know that Surfline Comments are moderated, which means that comments containing personal attacks, excessive profanity, or off-topic remarks may not be posted. Also, 'EDITOR'S PICKS' are comments that we feel capture points-of-view from all sides of the issue at hand, not necessarily the comments Surfline most agrees with. Thanks. --the editors
|