SO...HOW DOES IT WORK?
Enough with the venting already! In fact, I think the changes are all really good for surfing, the ASP and for the surfers. What we now have is an elite World Tour, a series of high profile Prime events and a series of Minor League Star events incorporating 1-6 star levels. The World Champion will be selected from just the WT events -- but qualification will come from the ASP World Rankings that combines a surfer's best eight WT, Prime and Star event points.

The key qualification issues are three-fold this year:

-The WT Top 44 will be cut to 32 following the fifth event, Teahupoo. This means that rookies have only five events to learn the ropes on the WT before they're cut and sent packing. Harsh treatment for one of the better qualifying classes in history -- and the way the results have played out so far, it's also possible that some of the WT stalwarts will be out as well.
-Only 22 -- not 27 -- WT surfers will return to the tour in 2011 and this cut-off will eliminate some historical big names.
-Only 10 -- not 15 -- Prime/WQS surfers will Qualify for the 2011 WT and this means that some very good surfers will miss out.

The resulting reduction in numbers will enable WT events to be run in one less day, probably resulting in better waves for each event. The increase in prizemoney is solid. Before the cut-off, the WT surfers are making more money than in 2009, but after the cut-off first place increases from $50,000 to $75,000. Not quite golf numbers, but we're surfers after all and it sounds pretty good to me.

The points scales in 2010 are really different with WT and Prime events having the greatest impact on qualification, as a win in a WT event is worth 10,000 points, a win in a Prime 6,500 points and a win in 6-Star event 3,000 points. The points breakdowns mean that a rising surfer, planning on a WT qualification will need solid results in all Prime events and only a semifinal or final in a 6-Star will be a keeper result. All other Star results will be about building points to improve your seeding in 6-Star and Prime events.

A key factor in all the points breakdowns for the WT is how low 33rds and 17ths are scoring. A WT 17th is just better than a Prime 17th and a WT 33rd is barely better than a Prime 65th. Clearly you are not lasting long on the WT scoring 17th's and 33rd's.

(Go to aspworldtour.com/2010 and the points are detailed in the Rule Book PDF located in the "About ASP" tab.)

A key by-product of these new points is that over 30 WT surfers competed at the Margaret River Prime and are planning to compete at Nike 6.0 Prime at Lowers in May. This means that the status of these events is radically improved and the Primes are now being asked to sign 3-year contracts with seriously escalating prizemoney from 2011 onwards. It is a worthwhile trade-off for these events as they now have a bigger story, with all the higher level talent competing.
In the WT, a big change will occur in 2011 when the World Rankings will periodically -- three or four times through the year (yet to be decided) -- select who is competing in the next segment of WT events, with the Top 32 from the World Rankings surfing the next WT event series. This Top 32 may be the same group, based on WT and Prime results, but it could very easily include five or six new faces who have burst onto the scene with great Prime results.

Communicating the details of this idea to the surfers, the surfing world, media and all other interested parties will be a big challenge, as it alters almost 20 years of operations in a profound way. I am just beginning to see it clearly myself but I instinctively like the way it looks, as it rewards current accomplishment (within the last 12 months), not historical success and both the reduction of numbers and this periodic qualification will weed out deadwood on the WT.

So, now it appears that we get what is happening with ASP this year and into the future and I sense that with the results of the early 2010 events and the rollout of the World Rankings, the many constituencies that needed to be brought on board are now OK with the results of the points changes and the World Rankings ideas. This appears to be a vindication of the "staged rollout" that ASP CEO Brodie Carr has spoken about and it is in line with his effective strategy of cooperative non-confrontational evolution. It is not my way, but I can see that it has been a good way to balance the interests of the various ASP stakeholder groups.

A TOTALLY NEW MINDSET
OK, so we have new terminology. Out is WCT and WQS, in is WT, Prime and Star. The competitor numbers are fewer in both WT and Prime events so it is both more elite and therefore more difficult to rise to the next higher plateau: from Junior to Star, from Star to Prime and from Prime to WT. The points are radically altered to reward high level success, so surfers will need to focus on winning, not chasing a year's worth of OK WQS results. The current crop of WT surfers get to experience a mid-year relegation and the stresses that that creates, but the Prime surfers do not get a chance for elevation until next year. There is a mad scramble for World Rankings places from both the WT and the old WQS competitors and the competition for the WT 22 and the next WR 10 will be huge in 2010. Then, in 2011 and into the future, it becomes a whole new and much more intense flurry of activity for qualification into each of the three or four WT segments. The new mind-set will be high stress for WT and Prime competitors alike, with no room for a slow start to any segment of the season. A highly interesting pressure cooker of ongoing stories of woe and success.

SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN TO STAKEHOLDERS?
WT Surfers will have to be really serious about cracking the Top 22 on the 2010 World Title Rankings. And with the talent this year, this will be a huge challenge. Many will also need to compete in Prime events to ensure re-qualification through the addition of Prime results to their WT results. This means a significant increase in the number of events that these surfers will need to compete in over past years campaigns, but a single huge result in a WT event will have a profound impact on their World Ranking.

Prime/Star Qualifiers are at a huge disadvantage to WT surfers in the race for the next 10 qualification spots as the WT events score a massive 10,000 points, so major results -- semis or better -- in the Prime and 6-Star events are certainly going to be necessary to secure one of the 10 slots available.

Star Surfers are going to have to score well in 6- and 5-Star events to get their overall World Ranking up very high to even have a chance to compete in Primes in 2011, as there is talk of reducing the Prime fields to a 96-man format from the current 128. This is going to significantly narrow the WT qualification pipe for new mid-level improving surfers.

Junior surfers will now need to focus on making the top slots in the new multi-event Junior World Title as these spots earn a coveted Prime and 6-Star event Wildcard, bypassing the need to build Star rankings over time. The details of how this will be done are not yet available from ASP but will be key qualification information for super-hot junior surfers like Kolohe Andino, Gabriel Medina, John John Florence, Garrett Parkes, Shaun Joubert, etc.

Event sponsors are stoked that these changes are in place as the quality of the competitor fields will improve, the time available to run an event in great waves will increase, the buzz about the changes and re-qualification adds to the drama and media angles, every surfer will need to be on his game and therefore the surfing and passion will improve. All told, this is a good time to be an event owner as the value of the ASP Event Franchise will increase with these changes.
The ASP has dodged a huge bullet with these changes as they address most of the critical points that Kelly and his cohorts at the Champions Tour were able to score points on. The changes will create a much more vibrant and and modern tour with great media coverage and better sponsor value. These changes are a great platform for ASP to launch into the new decade and should provide it with a stronger platform to seek outside sponsorship.

Not really a stakeholder but indicative of some outside interests, the Champions Tour is just another from a long list of pretenders who have tried to syphon off the goodwill that ASP has created in its 30 years of developing professional surfing across the globe. Although there is still talk of trying to put something together it's unlikely, as they don't have the necessary funding. Maybe, if their ideas are so new and fresh they can seek an ASP Sanction for a Specialty Series and then we all win.

QUALIFICATION STRATEGIES
How does one of these young hopefuls: Kolohe Andino, Gabriel Medina, John Florence, Garrett Parkes, Shaun Joubert, etc. get a crack at being the Owen Wright of his peer group? Clearly it is about chasing multiple strategies; high level results in the ASP Jr series, building as many points as possible in the Star series, earning Wildcards into as many Prime events as possible (these results count in their World Ranking), earning Wildcards into as many WT events as possible (These results do not count in their World Ranking but should.) These surfers and all other youngsters out there aspiring to be Mick Fanning must quickly align their career paths down this ASP highway to succeed and it cannot be too early to start. I have my PacSun USA Surf Team Juniors lined up as alternates in every US Jr event as we speak.

Two key thoughts need to be thought about here:

Which companies can provide the most WT and Prime Wildcards?
How can we get ASP to allow WT Wildcard points to count in the World Rankings?

WRAPUP:
In overview, I think that these changes are all good news and what is evolving is a very solid re-vamp of both the WT and Prime/Star qualification series that will stand the test of time for another decade or so. One question that was raised by the Champions Tour campaign and heavily reiterated by Kelly was the issue of surf industry domination of ASP event sponsorship and the subsequent control that this gives these companies in ASP affairs.

This is still a valid issue, but at this point in time, the surf industry has been the best and only consistent supporter of both the ASP events and its surfers, so it's a little rude to be critical of their involvement. And besides, right now, most of the ASP events are sponsored by the surf industry -- so there's immediate extra cash flowing from the surf industry companies to the surfers via the increases in prizemoney. What I would suggest is that ASP come up with ideas that tie major external companies, with global marketing budgets, to the ongoing event promotions that the surf industry is currently running, as this will provide win-win-win situations for the ASP, surf industry and those outside companies and provide a potentially huge platform for ASP to bring new outside money to the tour.

One key component in this whole equation that has not been fixed is the state of the media rights. Currently each of the major events has a license from ASP to manage the production and distribution of their own webcasts and television programming. The current interest by FuelTV in Australia to broadcast the WT events live, by taking the webfeed, has been a massive improvement of the value package for the event sponsors and is a welcome advancement for surfing. If FuelTV USA would also take this live feed we'd really be in business and I understand that ESPN Brazil is now taking the feed as well.

To have Australia, USA, Brazil and Europe taking the web feed for live TV broadcast would be a huge improvement of the ASP media package but the problem is that these deals are done individually with each event, not through the ASP. Centralized media distribution is the key to controlling the long term destiny of ASP, but that cat is out of the bag and it will be really hard to stuff it back in, as each brand: Quiksilver, Rip Curl and Billabong covets its independence and brand management ferociously.

So, we have huge change in the structure of the ASP Tour, new challenges and opportunities for the contestants, new opportunities for event operators and some remaining challenges for the brands and ASP to resolve. The key to this all is that significant change is being made and it will probably be good for the state of professional surfing and will again serve to keep outside operators like the Champions Tour at bay for another ten years.

The key for ASP's long term prospects will be to establish a checklist of key short/medium/long term growth targets, so that it can check the boxes as it evolves gradually. In that way ASP will keep future pretenders at bay, keep the ASP tours fresh, interesting and relevant and make sure that the ASP remains in the hands of the surfers.