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(Previous) 10/24/2005 (Next)
Did LOLA Overcall the NW Swell?.
The Southern California LOLA Swell Tracking Map is calling for 13-14' of swell today, how come my winter break isn't blowing up?
Continued below...
LOLA, like all females, can sometimes be complicated and confusing, (but of course we love her anyways). This HotSpot should help to clear up some of the confusion. If you look at this Swell Tracking Map you see 13-14' of deepwater swell showing at 17-second periods...at first glance it makes you go "holy c*%p it is going to be huge on Monday". Unfortunately this isn't always the case...in fact the swell she is calling for right now is a pretty good example of what can happen when the incoming swell starts to send in energy above the 300-degree swell angle.

The problem breaks down like this: To get an accurate forecast of all of the "pure" incoming swell heading into Southern California before it gets chewed up by local islands and headlands, we had to put the LOLA focal point OUTSIDE of the Southern California Bight. What this means is the LOLA forecast focal point is exposed to a steeper NW swell angle than the local beaches are able to pull in. So the current NW swell, while wrapping some OK sized waves into SoCal beaches, is actually waaaaaay bigger out in the outer waters westward of Point Conception. Once you realize that you will notice that LOLA was very accurate on this swell. In fact check out the Point Conception Buoy it matches up with the Swell Tracking Map almost dead-on.

So just a general rule of thumb...In the LOLA SoCal Forecast swells over 300-degrees will show big on the LOLA Swell Tracking Map but will be shadowed on the beach. Make sure to always use the Surfline written forecasts and the LOLA Local Animations to see how each swell will affect your favorite spots.

Like what you see here? Want to get this type of detailed forecast information on a daily basis, for every major surf region on earth? Then SIGN UP NOW for a Surfline Premium Membership. (First month's free.)

WHAT IS LOLA?

LOLA is the world's only automated global surf forecasting tool. LOLA can forecast waves right down the street, or it can predict surf conditions at the top spots around the globe - breaks like Tavarua, Tahiti and Jeffrey's Bay.

LOLA uses the NOAA Wavewatch III engine (running on our own computers) with Surfline-modified data from various wind models (AVN, GFS, MRF). Then LOLA combines this information with empirical data we've programmed into her gained from over 30 years of surf and weather analysis here at Surfline.

LOLA also gathers real-time data from offshore buoys to measure wave pulses from storms around the world every hour. She taps into orbiting satellites to measure hurricane-force winds and tremendous wave heights in the heart of raging storms when huge ships are running for cover. She computes near-shore wave animations measuring detailed wave heights along the coast, taking into account how swells are distorted by offshore islands and the continental shelf.

When you add it all up, LOLA is the ultimate forecasting tool for surfers looking for timely, accurate and comprehensive information about waves.

Initially, we created LOLA as a proprietary tool for Surfline forecasters. But we decided to share the knowledge and give Surfline's Premium Members the chance to use LOLA themselves, to give them the best chance to score more good surf more often.

Not a Premium Member? Then CLICK HERE for a free LOLA demo.

If you are already a Premium Member, please proceed straight to the LOLA home page.