Hurricane Hilary

Update: 9/24/11 at 4:00PM, PDT.

Hurricane Hilary remains a Category 4 storm located off the coast of northern/central Mexico and moving slowly to the west.

Current forecast tracks have her entering the SoCal swell window sometime on Monday the 26th.

Hurricane Hillary has held her strength as a Cat 4 storm with sustained wind of 115 knots. We're expecting Hilary to maintain a similar level of intensity for roughly the next day or so and then slowly start to weaken later this weekend/early next week as she moves over cooling water and an overall environment that is less favorable for maintaining strength.

At this point, Hilary maintains the typical characteristics of small but intense storm, with very limited wind/fetch on her eastern side. However, that most likely has to do with her interaction with land (Mexico) and forecast models show that her wind field will expand during the next few days as she moves away from Mainland Mex (a good thing as far as producing surf for us).

There are still some uncertainties in her track starting late this weekend/early next week but, at this point, it does look like she will move into the Southern California swell window on Monday and then take on a favorable northward heading as she slowly weakens. If that occurs as forecast, we're still looking for SSE swell from her for the middle to second half of next week. Stay tuned, this will be very dependent on how Hilary actually behaves in the next few days!


Other Useful Resources:
HurricaneTrak

How to Score Waves with HurricaneTrak

Southern California forecast

Recent satellite image of Cat 4 Hurricane Hilary off the Mexico coast.


The path that Hurricane Hilary is expected to take over the next few days, from Surfline's HurricaneTrak. At this point it looks like Hilary could move into the SoCal swell window early next week and take on a favorable northward track. Stay tuned!


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Update: 9/23/11 at 6:00PM, PDT.

Hurricane Hilary is a Category 4 storm located off the coast of Southern Mexico and moving slowly to the west-northwest.

Current forecast tracks have her entering the SoCal swell window sometime on Monday the 26th.

Hurricane Hillary has strengthened further in the past 24 hours and is now a Cat 4 storm with sustained wind of 125 knots. We're expecting Hilary to maintain a similar level of intensity for roughly the next day or so and then slowly start to weaken later this weekend/early next week as she moves over cooling water and an overall environment that is less favorable for maintaining strength.

At this point, Hilary is a fairly small storm, with very limited wind/fetch on her eastern side. However, that most likely has to do with her interaction with land (Mexico) and forecast models show that her wind field will expand during the next few days as she moves away from Mainland Mex (a good thing as far as producing surf for us).

There are still some uncertainties in her track starting late this weekend/early next week but, at this point, it does look like she will move into the Southern California swell window on Monday and then take on a favorable northward heading as she slowly weakens. If that occurs as forecast, we're still looking for SSE swell from her for the middle to second half of next week. Stay tuned, this will be very dependent on how Hilary actually behaves in the next few days!

Other Useful Resources:
HurricaneTrak

How to Score Waves with HurricaneTrak

Southern California forecast

Recent satellite image of Cat 4 Hurricane Hilary off the Mexico coast.


The path that Hurricane Hilary is expected to take over the next few days, from Surfline's HurricaneTrak. At this point it looks like Hilary could move into the SoCal swell window early next week and take on a favorable northward track. Stay tuned!


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Update: 9/22/11 at 2:30PM, PDT.

Hurricane Hilary has rapidly strengthened into a Cat 2 hurricane this afternoon and could become a Cat 4 hurricane within the next 24 hours.

Hilary could possibly enter the Southern California swell window early next week.

As of 2PM Pacific Time on Thursday afternoon (9/22), Hurricane Hilary is located roughly 100 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. The environment remains very favorable for further strengthening, with very warm water and low shear, and Hilary could become the fourth major hurricane of the 2011 Eastern Pacific tropical season in the next 24 hours.

Hilary is skirting the Southern Mexico coastline and is on a slow track to the northwest (300 degrees, true) at just under ten knots. Most forecast models have her maintaining this track for the next 48 hours or so and then there are some uncertainties and how she might behave as we move through the weekend. The official track from the National Hurricane Center is for her to maintain a general west-northwest heading for the next several days, although some models indicate that she could recurve back toward Baja later this weekend (and statistically, we see the most hurricanes move back toward Baja at this time of year).

At this point, it still appears that Hurricane Hilary will enter the Southern California swell window sometime on Monday. It does appear that she'll be entering a more stable environment with increased wind shear and cooling waters (although still at least 80 degrees F, the minimum temp needed to sustain a tropical storm) right as she enters said swell window, so we'll likely see a weakening trend at that time.

Overall we're watching for potential south-southeast swell from her around the middle of next week (Wed/Thur), but that will depend greatly on how she actually behaves in the next few days. We'll continue to update this blog at least once a day as log as it appears that Hilary could produce swell for us. Stay tuned!

Other Useful Resources:
HurricaneTrak

How to Score Waves with HurricaneTrak

Southern California Forecast

Recent satellite image of Hurricane Hilary off the Southern Mexico coast. Notice the very distinct eye that has taken form.


The path that Hurricane Hilary is expected to take over the next few days, from Surfline's HurricaneTrak. At this point it looks like Hilray could move into the SoCal swell window early next week. Stay tuned!


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Update: 9/21/11 at 5:30PM, PDT

Tropical Storm Hilary as formed off the Southern Mainland Mexico coast today, roughly 100 miles south of Puerto Escondido. Hilary is in an environment that is favorable for strengthening, with warm sea surface temps of 85+ degrees fahrenheit and low upper level wind shear. Most forecast models indicate Hilary will steadily strengthen over the next couple to few days; she should be a category 1 hurricane by late Thursday evening and could be a category 2 hurricane with 90 knot sustained wind by this weekend.

Hilary is slowly moving to the northwest at around 5 knots and should enter the Southern California swell window early next week, possibly sometime on Monday. If she behaves as currently forecast, there is certainly the possibility that we'll see some surf from her starting around the middle part of next week (Wed/Thur). This is very dependent on how Hilary actually behaves in the next several days, so be sure to stay tuned to HurricaneTrak, the Southern California forecast and this blog for further info (we'll try and update this blog at least once a day as long as Hilary remains active).

The forecast track of Tropical Storm Hilary, from the National Hurricane Center.


Notice how Hilary will be over warm 80+++ degree water over the next few days, which will allow here to steadily strengthen.


Recent satellite image of TS Hilary off the Southern Mexico coast.

Category: Hurricanes