Swell Rolls on Quiksilver/Roxy Pro Gold Coast
Winds becoming dicey
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BRIEF OVERVIEW: The interaction between high pressure over New Zealand and a trough of low pressure east of the Gold Coast has set up the start of a prolonged run of trade windswell/swell that will continue through early next week. Trend to ENE to NE winds expected for Sunday/Monday.
SUNDAY 19TH: 4-6 E swell. ENE winds. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: E trade windswell/swell holds in the head/head+ range.
WIND/WEATHER: Mainly ENE winds 6-12kts through the day. Might be a touch lighter first thing. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
MONDAY 20TH: 4-6 E swell. NE/ENE winds. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: E trade windswell/swell holds in the chest/shoulder to head/head+ range. Bumpy/textured to semi choppy with the onshore wind.
WIND/WEATHER: Mainly NE/ENE winds 6-13kts through the day. Potential notch stronger winds PM. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
TUESDAY 21st: 4-5 E windswell/swell. NE winds. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: E trade windswell/swell holds in the head/head+ range. Bumpy/textured to semi choppy with the onshore wind.
WIND/WEATHER: Mainly NE winds 6-13kts through the day. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
WEDNESDAY 22nd: 3-5 E windswell/swell with bigger sets possible. NNE/NE winds. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: E trade windswell/swell easing some.
WIND/WEATHER: NNW/N breezes AM. Mainly NNE/NE winds 6-13kts for the PM. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
THURSDAY 23rd: 2-4 ENE windswell/leftover E swell mix. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: Small ENE windswell/leftover E swell mix.
WIND/WEATHER: S breezes expected. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
OUTLOOK
We have seen the low shift a little further south than the thinking earlier this week. This has led to a slight downward trend in expected surf heights but fun/good size surf continues. Similar wave heights are expected for Sunday with surf in the head/head+ range. Monday is still solid with head/head+ surf expected. In the longer range we will see surf heights trend down into the middle/back half of next week.
Further out, models have trended off the low in the Tasman Sea late week. Right now mainly looking at another ridge of high pressure building in late next week with another trough starting to take shape offshore of the coast. We would be looking at surf impacts from this toward the last day of the waiting period.
WIND
We are in good agreement among our trusted models that winds will bend more ENE behind the trough moving inland as we move through Sunday into Monday. NE/ENE winds around the NW portion of the Tasman Sea high pressure are expected for Tuesdsay/Wednesday.
NEXT UPDATE: Sunday evening, March 19th (local time)
- Mike Watson
Proprietary Surfline Resources for Australia's Gold Coast:
Expert analysis/written forecast
17-Day Forecast for Snapper Rocks
High resolution wind models for East Oz and the Gold Coast
SUNDAY 19TH: 4-6 E swell. ENE winds. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: E trade windswell/swell holds in the head/head+ range.
WIND/WEATHER: Mainly ENE winds 6-12kts through the day. Might be a touch lighter first thing. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
MONDAY 20TH: 4-6 E swell. NE/ENE winds. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: E trade windswell/swell holds in the chest/shoulder to head/head+ range. Bumpy/textured to semi choppy with the onshore wind.
WIND/WEATHER: Mainly NE/ENE winds 6-13kts through the day. Potential notch stronger winds PM. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
TUESDAY 21st: 4-5 E windswell/swell. NE winds. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: E trade windswell/swell holds in the head/head+ range. Bumpy/textured to semi choppy with the onshore wind.
WIND/WEATHER: Mainly NE winds 6-13kts through the day. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
WEDNESDAY 22nd: 3-5 E windswell/swell with bigger sets possible. NNE/NE winds. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: E trade windswell/swell easing some.
WIND/WEATHER: NNW/N breezes AM. Mainly NNE/NE winds 6-13kts for the PM. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
THURSDAY 23rd: 2-4 ENE windswell/leftover E swell mix. POOR-FAIR.
SWELL/SURF: Small ENE windswell/leftover E swell mix.
WIND/WEATHER: S breezes expected. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers.
OUTLOOK
We have seen the low shift a little further south than the thinking earlier this week. This has led to a slight downward trend in expected surf heights but fun/good size surf continues. Similar wave heights are expected for Sunday with surf in the head/head+ range. Monday is still solid with head/head+ surf expected. In the longer range we will see surf heights trend down into the middle/back half of next week.
Further out, models have trended off the low in the Tasman Sea late week. Right now mainly looking at another ridge of high pressure building in late next week with another trough starting to take shape offshore of the coast. We would be looking at surf impacts from this toward the last day of the waiting period.
WIND
We are in good agreement among our trusted models that winds will bend more ENE behind the trough moving inland as we move through Sunday into Monday. NE/ENE winds around the NW portion of the Tasman Sea high pressure are expected for Tuesdsay/Wednesday.
NEXT UPDATE: Sunday evening, March 19th (local time)
- Mike Watson
Proprietary Surfline Resources for Australia's Gold Coast:
Expert analysis/written forecast
17-Day Forecast for Snapper Rocks
High resolution wind models for East Oz and the Gold Coast
Category:
Special Event Forecasting