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The swell that rocked the entire Pacific Ocean -- explained

Read all about it!: Huge spring storm off Antarctica and New Zealand roars to life in late April with hurricane force winds and combined seas in excess of 50 feet in the midst of the storm, generating amazing surf all over the Pacific Ocean.

While this is swell-of-the-decade news, it shouldn't really come as that big of a surprise. We actually had a very similar storm and swell like this one in early May '96, which also produced epic surf just about everywhere. And practically every year over the past 20 years, our Surfline records indicate an amazing trend of significant Southern Hemisphere swells generated during the spring months between April and June. (Click here for a springtime '01 wrap-up.)

Why in the heck? First, some background Surfology:

As we know, wind creates waves. The harder the wind blows, over the greatest distance, and for the longest time, the bigger the waves will be. In the Northern Hemisphere Spring, the folks Down Under are just finishing up with their summer. So that means less of an ice pack extending off Antarctica, which means more distance of "fetch" of ocean for the wind to blow over. About an extra 1,000 miles to be exact. That's a lot of extra ocean compared to August or September when that same ocean is covered over with a lot of ice.

Another HUGE factor enhancing the April through June storms in the Southern Hemisphere is the extra-tropical influence. The remnants of warm core tropical storms and typhoons left over from late summer often flow down into the machinery of huge "cold core" storms coming off the cold continent of Antarctica. Whenever you mix that big contrast of warm tropical air with cold Antarctic air, it creates a combustible type of atmosphere with greatly enhanced and radical wind speeds with deep low-pressure systems. Kind of like throwing gasoline on a fire. We very typically see hurricane force winds well in excess of 50 knots and huge seas in these extra-tropical storms.

Our April 19th, 2004 storm benefited from both of these factors: a minimal ice pack off Antarctica which set up a very long fetch, and a substantial influx of warm tropical air into a very large cold core storm which developed off Antarctica. Most good swell producing storms have a central low air pressure of about 965 millibars, while this storm dropped to an amazing 948 millibars. As a result, this storm has a very long and very "wide" fetch, which was able to transfer a huge amount of energy into the ocean.

As you might expect, this storm was pretty much in a "no man's land" area so we didn't have any confirmed observations from any land based stations, and all of the ships previously in the area had long since scattered. As part of our forecasting procedure, Surfline did tap into real time satellite data that confirmed wave heights near 50 feet in the storm driven by 40-60 knots of wind over an extremely large area.

After assimilating all of the factual observational data from the satellite and inputting it into Surfline's LOLA Swell Model, we were able view the forecasted results of this incredible swell as it would propagate across the Pacific.

First on the schedule was Tahiti. After tipping off Laird, Dorian, Parsons, Gerlach, and others, there was an impressive crew of extreme big wave riders on the way to meet the swell at Teahupo'o. The swell began to fill in on Wednesday afternoon, April 21st, and the deep-water swell peaked in the 10- to 15-foot range (15- to 25-foot faces) on Thursday the 22nd.

Unfortunately, weather and wind conditions weren't super clean but there were some incredible waves ridden. The bigger sets were also a little inconsistent because the center of the maximum swell energy was aimed more toward Central America.

Next up was Hawaii. Like Tahiti, Hawaii was a little out on the edge of the maximum swell energy so the larger sets were a little inconsistent -- but really good when they came. The swell began to fill into South Shore spots three or four days after Tahiti, and peaked between Sunday and Monday, April 25th-26th with 4- to 6-foot waves (8- to 12-foot faces at the best spots). Rarely-breaking
Malaaea on Maui was also good with solid overhead waves.

On the other side of the swell, Peru and Chile in South America also benefited with great waves. The better southwest exposed surf breaks enjoyed a peaking swell in the 5- to 8-foot range (8- to 15-foot+ faces), which peaked around Saturday, April 24th.

Further up the coast in Central America, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Mainland Mexico spots peaked on Sunday and Monday, April 25-26th, also with solid 8- to 15-foot faces. Some of the premier long-swell period spots like Puerto Escondido were ridiculously big with 20- to 25-foot faces or more.

Baja enjoyed epic waves on this swell with 8- to 12-foot faces in many areas and sets up to 15-foot+ on the faces at some of the deep-water breaks down around Cabo. Many spots were out of control and the south facing points and reefs were the call. Most spots in Southern Baja peaked on Monday, April 26th, while those in northern Baja peaked on Tuesday the 27th.

Southern California also peaked on Tuesday, April 27th with 6- to 8-foot faces in most areas and sets over 12-feet on the face at the best southwest exposed areas. Pointbreaks were again the call with Malibu enjoying solid double overhead waves and the best swell in years. Newport Wedge had some macking sets over 20 feet on the face. San Diego, Southern Orange County, and Northern LA county spots grabbed most of the southwest swell through the offshore islands but it was solid just about everywhere. A coastal eddy with variable south winds put a damper on conditions in many areas but it cleaned up throughout the week.

Nine days after the peak of the storm down off Antarctica on April 19th, our swell continued fan out, peaking at Northern and Central California spots on Wednesday the 28th. Most spots open to the southwest were in the 5-8 foot range on the face but with solid double overhead+ sets at the best spots like Pleasure Point and the Lane.

And finally, the south and southwest facing surf spots in Oregon, Washington, Canada, and even Alaska also enjoyed solid overhead waves between the 28th and 30th of April before this swell ran out of ocean, more than 11 days and 7,000 miles later from its origin.

And again, what made this swell so special?
A) A very limited icepack off Antarctica.
B) Warm tropical air influence into an extra-tropical storm.
C) And finally a very wide and large fetch of 40-60 knot winds, which created huge seas and longer swell periods, with more energy in the swell to push into just about everywhere.

Overall, a classic swell and one for the record books.

Where were you? --Sean Collins





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