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UNLEASHED
A "PERFECT STORM" SENDS CLASSIC WAVES TO THE GLOBE WCT-FIJI
Michael Marckx was peaking.
As VP of Marketing at Globe, Michael was the lucky bastard in charge of hosting 44 of the hottest surfers in the world on Tavarua Island for the Globe WCT-Fiji, the fourth stop on the ASP World Tour, the one just after The Billabong Pro Tahiti - normally a very tough act to follow, but especially so this year with Teahupoo delivering epic surf, a perfect heat by Slater, and even a headline-grabbing, near-death experience by Raimana that (Thank God!) ended up with everyone AOK.
So it was understandable that Michael was a little edgy when he emailed Surfline wanting to know what the waves were going to be like for his contest.
Can you imagine if the forecast called for crummy waves? How much of a downer would that be after the scene that went down at Teahupoo?
Marckx wanted answers to all the questions Marketing Guys normally ask when dropping hundreds of thousands of dollars on a world class surf event: Are there going to be waves? How big is it going to be? What are the biggest days? What is the weather going to be like? What about the winds? The tides? And on and on and on.
The classic thing with Michael, though, is he wanted this info, like... three and a half weeks before the contest. So, as Official Forecasters, Surfline’s Sean Collins wrote him back saying it would be a while before he could provide any real guidance, but that the macro view of conditions in the South Pacific looked poor for swell development around the opening days of the contest.
Bummer.
Sean consoled Michael with the fact that Surfline would be providing continual updates over the coming days, that anything could happen, there was plenty of time, keep calm, don’t worry till we tell you to, etc., etc.
Over the course of the next two weeks, something did happen, macro conditions went from bleak to breathtaking, the guidance came in loud and clear, and now, as you read this, the only thing Mr. Michael Marckx has to worry about is if the waves for his contest are going to be too big.
Imagine how filled with joy everyone at Globe felt when they received this email from Sean Collins on Thursday, May 26:
“Wow. Now that’s a storm! The system below Australia that we have been monitoring is coming together exactly as planned, and actually a little better. Satellite measurements have confirmed wind speeds of over 70 knots. The fetch is pointed perfectly up toward Tavarua through the Tasman Sea. This “Perfect Storm” will continue to intensify overnight and will peak tomorrow. The system will then spin off the main body of the fetch, which will carry forward and extend 30- to 40-knot winds up into the Tasman Sea. All that will do is continue to push more and more energy into the swell toward Tavarua.
“But wait, there’s more: A second, huge, swell-generating fetch will spin off the back side of the storm and follow the first one with 50 knots of wind all the way up next to Tasmania. All of this wind passing over the already existing swell left behind by the first fetch will supercharge the combined swell. This is a major, major weather event...
“By late Monday you’ll begin to see new, very long-period waves in the lineup - the first signs of our new swell. A good way to identify the new swell will be to time successive waves as they pass a stationary point like a boat or a surfer. The old swell should be between 12-14 seconds between waves. The new swell will be between 18-20+ seconds between waves. Once you see those long-period waves the size will build quickly within a few hours to the 8- to 10-foot range, with sets up to the triple overhead by late afternoon.
“Right now the peak days look like BOTH Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to the “double whammy” nature of this storm. And how big is big? Honestly, I think Cloudbreak is going to see solid, 12- to 15-foot deep-water swell heights. That means the small waves will be double overhead, and the set waves will be more than four times overhead with even larger sets. I don’t know... 20- to 30-foot faces?
“Honestly, guys... we’re not writing this script. I
t’s just happening this way. All the best. - Sean”
Can a forecast get any better? Can sponsors, surfers, media, Michael Marckx, be any happier?
Here is the bottom line for the contest, as Surfline sees it as of late Thursday evening: Remember that famous tow-in photo of Conan Hayes at Cloudbreak a few years back? The one where he turns around and looks up at the lip twelve feet above him? Yeah, it should be like that... but maybe bigger.
Keep in mind, though, that Tavarua has two world-class waves, Cloudbreak and Tavarua, and when a big swell hits there are options.
According to Sean, Restaurants should be solid 6-8 feet (double overhead plus) on Tuesday and Wednesday and probably the best venue to run the event, all things considered. Wind conditions for Monday through Wednesday look like they will be in the ten-knot range out of the southeast - a great wind for both Cloudbreak and Restaurants.
Meanwhile, tow hero Shane Dorian is on his way from Hawaii to hopefully get dragged in to a few biggies at Cloudbreak if the event is moved to Restaurants, and Mike Parsons and Brad Gerlach are already there as commentators - and you know they will putting their microphones down for at least a couple PWC sessions. Oh, and don’t forget those other guys - Irons, Slater, Parkinson, Fanning, etc.
How this all will play out, God only knows. But the cool thing is that we all will be able to watch it live on the Globe webcast: http://www.globefiji.com/
Plus, Surfline.com will be providing video highlights, photo slideshows and written commentary as the event progresses.
Don’t touch that dial...
--
Dave Gilovich
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