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HERE COMES THE SUN
SoCal's wild wet weather draws to a close -- just in time for the surf to pick up
First too little:
The 2004 Fall season in Southern California sucked by even the most gracious standards. Dominant high pressure in the Eastern North Pacific during October and November forced the storm track too far to the north in the mid-Pacific, resulting in very little swell for the winter breaks south of Point Conception. (Click here for a SoCal photo gallery -- yeah, there's some good shots, too.)
On a better note, most spots north of Point Conception in Central and Northern California were on fire. Due to better exposure to the northwest swells that swept through the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, many of these "more northern" spots enjoyed great waves with super clean conditions under the ridge of high pressure. (Click here to see a NorCal photo gallery.)
By December 2004, the Eastern Pacific high pressure ridge began to relax a bit, which allowed the storm track to drop further south in the mid-Pacific above Hawaii. With a better angle on all of California, the improved storm track finally produced a few great days of fun overhead swells with clean conditions everywhere.
Then too much:
"Geezzzz -- who left the fricken' door open?" At the beginning of January 2005, a subtropical "cutoff" low near Hawaii broke through the remaining high pressure in the Eastern North Pacific and all Hell broke loose. The subtropical low became somewhat stationary off the coast of California, and continued to suck up warm, moisture laden air from the tropics near Hawaii into a series of cold troughs dropping down from the north Pacific. When the warm moist air from the tropics merged with the cold air, it was like wringing out a super soaked sponge. Cold air can't hold much moisture like warm air can, so it was a major dump. Our "minor El Nino" this season was not the cause of all this, but it certainly helped to enhance it with warmer than normal water temperatures in the mid-Pacific. The end result was similar to throwing gasoline on a fire, and "Ground Zero" -- was Southern California.
Needless to say, the surf has sucked so far in January 2005. Similar to the endless rains of 1993, Southern California experienced major flooding, coastal erosion, horrific sewage overflows into the ocean, significant landslides, and tragic loss of life. (You know how they say to give it 72 hours before you enter the ocean due to the runoff? I would give this one a week. It's that bad.)
One note of interest is the amount of sand and debris flowing downstream into the ocean rivermouths. Everytime we do experience this much rain in a short period of time, many of our normal surf breaks may undergo a "major" facelift -- for better or for worse. As an example, the Lower Trestles "left" was created during the El Nino rains of 82-83, before which Lowers was mostly only a right. So you might want to take a look around to see if any new sand points have popped up in your area that may have created your own local Kirra. Usually these local anomalies last only a few months or so before they erode away so you definitely want to be on it.
Finally, here comes the sun. And the surf
High pressure and great weather have returned to California in mid-January and should remain for the next couple of weeks or so. The storm track has also improved greatly for most of California, and has dropped far to the south near Hawaii in the mid-Pacific. Due to this new configuration of the pieces in our North Pacific puzzle, California can look forward to a great series of swells with good conditions over the next couple of weeks. The first swell is a solid overhead west, and is scheduled to arrive early next week. (See LOLA for details.) While the worst of the bad weather is over for now, it will very likely return again around the end of January and into February -- so get it while you can. --Sean Collins
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Sean Collins
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