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'MONSTER DOWN UNDER' HEADED TO CALIFORNIA
Epic surf expected for Boost Mobile Pro at Trestles -- again
Wow. Sometimes all the stars line up, sometimes they don't and you simply have to go with the cards you are dealt. In the case of the Boost Mobile Pro at Lower Trestles over the past few years, I suggest these boys spend some time in Vegas.
The strongest Southern Hemisphere storm of the year has developed this week about 1500 miles south of Tahiti. This storm is the product of a deep low pressure system coming up from below New Zealand, but the secret ingredient was a strong influx of tropical moisture from a sub-tropical low in the Tasman Sea. The combination of these merging factors super charged this extra-tropical storm with hurricane force winds and seas near 50 feet today.
This is a classic New Zealander storm reminiscent of the storms that produced very large swells for us in California during the summer of 1975 and spring of 2004. Also similar to the storm that generated another huge swell Surfline followed with Mike Stewart from Tahiti to Alaska in July 1996. And it will be sending good surf to millions of surfers all around the Pacific Ocean.
The initial effects of this storm will be felt in Tahiti on Sunday and Monday with waves in excess of 30 feet on the face at Teahupo'o. We've already put the alert out to most of the world's big wave surfers and many are already on their way down to Tahiti to surf these huge waves. Next up will be Hawaii's South Shores with solid 8-15 foot waves (faces) by Thursday. Skipping over to the other side of the ocean, surfers in Costa Rica, Mexico, and California will also enjoy 8-12 foot waves (faces) by Friday and Saturday. Santa Cruz and many Northern California south-facing areas will also enjoy 8-12 foot waves on Saturday and Sunday. Canada's southerly breaks will be firing with 6-10 foot surf on Sunday. And if you don't mind dodging a few grizzly bears on the beach and surfing off a glacier, Alaska will have great 4-8 foot surf from this swell on Monday.
Closer to home, the Boost Mobile Pro begins at Lower Trestles on Tuesday, September 13th, with the top surfers in the world competing all week. The surf will be fun in the 3-5 foot+ range throughout much of the week. By Friday the 16th however, our new swell from the "Monster Down Under" will begin to arrive with 8-10 foot surf (faces) by the afternoon. The peak day of this swell looks like Saturday the 17th with 8-12 foot+ surf at Lowers, and only slightly smaller for the Boost finals on Sunday.
Elsewhere in Southern California we can expect strong 5-8 foot surf in most areas open to the south, and larger 12 foot+ sets in the more exposed south-facing areas like Newport and Huntington. The Wedge promises to be well over 15-18 feet on Saturday and Sunday, the 17th and 18th.
Beachgoers should use extreme caution before entering the water and should always stay in front of manned lifeguard towers. Some south-facing harbor entrances like Oceanside, Dana Point, and Alamitos Bay will have large breaking waves near the entrances, especially during the afternoon low tides on Friday through Sunday, so mariners should use extreme caution before approaching the harbor entrances.
Graphics of this storm (on left) include a satellite photo, wind tracking chart and a swell tracking chart -- both for Southern California. Also attached is our comparison graphic between our swell model LOLA (red) and real-time satellite tracking data (green) that measures the wave heights around the globe. As you can see, our LOLA swell model is right on. By the way, the satellite track only went over the very edge of the swell and missed the biggest waves.
Surfline will have further updates throughout the coming week as we monitor this swell's progress with satellites measurements and other sources.
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Sean Collins
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