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HERE COMES SUMMERTIME?
Pacific Surf Outlook for July/August '05
July and early August the Pacific Ocean is usually into full summer mode but this year there are still a couple of quirky areas that haven't quite gotten the "time to change seasons" message.
Most of our significant swell will be coming from the South Pacific, which is a pretty typical pattern for this time of year. Right now the SPAC is still cranking out plenty of storm activity both in the mid- and high-latitudes, which have a tendency to merge into stronger more intense lows as the warm-moist air expels energy in the higher-latitudes. Watch for periods of zonal activity as high-pressure shifts around, but in general we should have some level of swell headed our way from the SPAC for the next month. And since it is the Southern Hemi winter there is the potential for a couple of solid swells to slip our way.
The North Pacific is behaving a little weird right now. Normally we would have the EPAC high sitting nice and strong over portions of the California Coast and most of the mainland would see a drop in local windswell along with sunnier/warmer conditions at the beaches. Unfortunately the high is a little further off the coast -- centered more above Hawaii -- which is allowing for stronger NW winds to push down the West Coast and the consistent generation of the Southern California Eddy (aka June Gloom). The one good thing we are seeing is that with the high-pressure out of position it is allowing a few storms to slide into the Gulf of Alaska and send us some playful WNW swell. Over the next month I do expect the high to reposition to a more normal summer pattern while the WNW swell dwindles away leaving us with just local windswell.
The Tropics -- well the tropics pretty much suck right now. Sure, we've already had four named storms but none of them have reached hurricane strength nor produced any significant swell. The biggest problem right now is the lack of warm water. Sure there are some pockets next to the Mainland Mexico coast, but once you get past the tip of Baja the ocean water cools significantly -- so much so that storms cannot maintain themselves and quickly fall apart.
The EPAC High-pressure is the culprit. By being out of place it allows all the winds to move down the West Coast and along Baja, eventually out into the open ocean. This constant wind keeps the waters cool and cool water equals no tropical activity. Over the next month as the EPAC settles closer to the coast and shuts off the wind we will start to see a gradual warming of the SST (Sea Surface Temps) in the key areas we need for a storm to make it into our swell window. Look for increased tropical activity as we move deeper into August.
RELATED LINKS:
WAVETRAKS Newsletter, July 05
IDLING IN NEUTRAL Outlook for 2005 East Pacific Hurricane Season
--
Adam Wright
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