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Trying to put my finger on understanding what oceanographic conditions create closed out wave conditions versus perfectly formed waves. Can
you help me out? Is it when you have wind swells that are most likely to create closed out waves, or something else? Thanks.

- N.Rhodes Gardner, San Jose, CA.

N.Rhodes Gardner,

The main factors that come into play for wave shape are bathymetry, swell direction, wind, and tide. Therefore, any variation and combination of these factors will result in a different wave shape. Which in-turn, can make or break a session for a specific spot, depending on what you are looking for, as well as closed-out versus good surfable waves.

Different spots (points, reefs, beach-breaks, jetties, piers, etc.) will behave differently according to the conditions at hand. And the behavior is always changing as are the main factors ***{swell(s) direction/size/period/building-fading trend, tide rising/falling, wind speed and direction}. I invite you to check out Sean Collins' book, The California Surf Guide. With this book, you can learn more about the relationship between conditions and waves, as well as particular breaks along the California coast and the ideal conditions for these specific locations. http://store.surfline.com/store/myProducts.cfm?parentcategoryid=7%7CBooks&productID=608&showDetail=1&categoryID=7|Books&vendoridtodisplay=0&filterFor=&collection=


Example 1 - A solid SW groundswell may be walled up and closed-out on the beach-breaks of Oceanside, where as, just up the road Trestles is going off with nice surfable waves. This is due to the fact that beach-breaks have a broad, sandy, flat bottom that won't break up the long-period swell energy. Therefore, the swell lines roll in and wall up as it runs into this long, flat stretch of beach where it closes out. Trestles on the other hand has a cobble stone point bathymetry where South Hemi swells focus and wrap around nicely for good peeling lines (unless it's too big for Trestles to handle). But if you throw a NW swell into the mix with the SW energy, then the situation changes. Combo swells tend to break best on the beach-breaks with crossed up peaks and workable rights and lefts. Where-as, points and reefs tend to be a little too mixed up and sectiony, in-turn closing out on you.

Example 2 - Wind conditions. Onshore flow will create surface chop and may help larger swells to break sooner than they normally would from the bathymetry configorations. As the wave peaks, the onshore wind blowing on the back of the wave-crest may start the wave to crumble in sections prematurely. Thus creating closed out surf. Offshore winds help clean up the wave face and stand waves up a little more until they are finally forced to break by the bottom contours. Even with offshores, you may still have close outs, as the bathymetry and swell direction/angle/period will determine that end result for that specific spot.

Example 3 - Tides. Very low or a negative Low tide may cause "drained out" or "gut-less" conditions, which usually the beach breaks tend to become sectiony and closed-out. Then too high of tide may result in the raw swell energy dumping closer to shore with close-outs. Check what tide your spot like best.

I can't stress more than the fact that every spot has its own attitude for different conditions. Some spots will be crappy close-outs as others down the beach will be perfect. Then next week, different conditions are at hand and the other spot is better. It's all about learning a specific spot and what it likes best in-terms of producing surfable waves. Again, there so many factors and many spots are very picky or fickle.

Learning what elements need to come together for a specific spot can mean scoring the session of a life-time, rather than crappy close-outs.

Hope this helps! cheers,


Jonathan Warren
Surfline Forecaster/Meteorologist

Ok so I've been looking at the details and I've already got stumped. As I understand it, wind starts from air moving from high pressure areas to low pressure areas and air pressure is measured in millibars. Here's where I'm mixed up: I've been looking at charts of low pressure areas ( smaller circles with lower millibar levels) moving under Africa towards Australia. They're sorta like peaks on a topographical map only just the opposite and the smaller circles represent the "low" instead of the peak. If the wind blows towards the low from the high, how does the wave energy move towards Indo or Western Australia. It seems like I've got the concept in reverse. Dang! there goes my career as a forecaster.

Thanks for some assistance

Barry

Barry-

Great question! Ok, with this we need to take a couple things into consideration. You're correct when you mention that wind flows from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure, as the earth constantly tries to reach a state of equilibrium. The tendency for air to move from an area of high pressure to an area of low pressure is called the pressure gradient force (PGF). Now if the earth didn't rotate about its axis the wind would flow directly from high to low, such as the below.



But in reality the earth rotates, causing the wind to deflect to the right (in relation to a straight line) in the Northern Hemisphere and deflect to the left in the Southern Hemisphere. This is known as the coriolis force. Check out this Wikipedia Entry for a good coriolis force demonstration.

So, when these two forces act against each other (and other factors such as friction come into play) the wind will not flow directly from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. For simplicity's sake, we'll just say that the wind will closely follow the path of the isboars, (equivalent to contour lines on a topographic map) such as below. The black arrows represent the basic flow of the wind:




With areas of low pressure, cyclonic flow will closely parallel the isobar lines with a slight bend toward the center of the low. The opposite is true with areas of high pressure, or areas of anticyclonic flow: the wind will closely parallel the isobar lines, with a slight bend out from the center of high pressure.

Furthermore, in the Southern Hemisphere, winds will rotate clockwise around an area of low pressure and counter clockwise around an area of high pressure. The opposite is true in the Northern Hemisphere: winds rotate counter clockwise around an area of low pressure and counter clockwise around an area of high pressure.

Now what I'm sure you'll also notice on the above map is that it appears the wind is blowing directly from west to east and the resulting swell will pass well to the south of the Indonesian Islands, particularly from the storm south of Africa. But of course this is a flat map and the earth is round! So, have a look at the dark lines that converge at Bali and then extend out toward the West Indian Ocean. These are the great circle paths that correct for a flat map vs. round earth. When you see the isobar lines running parallel to the great circle lines, wind and eventually swell, are being aimed at your location.

Now have a look at the concentric rings (for lack of a better term) that intersect the great circle lines. Each one of these rings represent a distance of roughly 600 miles, which is about how far a swell with 17 second interval can travel in one day. So, strictly looking at this map and ignoring some other factors, there are new swells heading toward Bali/Indo, with arrival time 5 days from now, 7 days from now and 9 days from now.

Hope that explains things a bit more and makes sense. Feel free to contact us again with any further questions.

Kevin Wallis
Surfline Forecaster

hey gang! i was wondering, how can you predict if there is gonna be a glass off in the evening? can you give me all the indicators to a glass off (i.e. winds, Hi or Lo pressure, etc)? i seem glass-offs occur a lot in the summer, so i wanna know to better schedule my sessions.

thanks!
chris

Chris,

There are many factors that can come into play for an evening glass-off, and to forecast it, you need to really stay on top of the weather. The wind can slack off and become calm for a specific location before dark, where-as not too far away, an afternoon seabreeze continues right into the night. Geography and climate characteristics for each specific location are also factors.

Nonetheless, temperature and pressure gradients are the key factors for whether or not this event will occur, as well as any wind event. Under normal conditions with high pressure over the region and the relationship between the land/sea, the coastal wind pattern is directly affected to the temperature contrast of the land/sea. Unless of course a more dynamical pressure system moves into the region. Now, taking a look at the land/sea effect; keep in mind that the land will heat or cool faster than the ocean as the ocean will stay relatively constant with respect to the climate. So, throughout day, the sun heats up the land to a warmer temp than the sea. Therefore, the warmer air over land will rise and pull the cooler air in off the ocean (onshore flow.. aka, afternoon sea breeze). Throughout the night, the lands cools to a lower or near equal temp of the sea. Therefore, the winds become calm as they switch around. The warmer air over the ocean will rise and pull the air off the land (offshore flow) for the early morning. Again, this is under normal High pressure conditions over the region and the usual case. Other factors and weather situations may also come into play for a different result. You can often see this land/sea effect happen for almost everywhere, especially the West Coast (clean in the mornings before the afternoon sea breeze moves in).

(For...say California) If strong High pressure sets up offshore with inland Low pressure, then gusty NW winds will sweep the coast. As a result, an evening glass-off will most likely not occur. However, if the High weakens a bit and moves a little more over CA, then lighter surface winds will occur. Therefore, the land-sea effect will take a more dynamical role for the specific locations along the coast.

Now, for the evening glass-off, you're looking for the land to cool down to a temperature close to that of the sea (again, under normal high pressure conditions), and you want this to happen before the sun goes down. Therefore, the winds will back off and the surf cleans up for that evening session.

In the summer; days are longer, in-turn so are the evening/dusk hours. High pressure has established more of a presence throughout the Northern Hemisphere as frontal Low pressure systems are weaker. Also, the ocean temps are warmer. More evening glass-off session can be found later in the summer and fall.

Aside from that; you can find mid-morning glass-off sessions as the winds switch around, same with the afternoons, pretty much any time. And like I said before, there's so many factors and you need to stay on top of things as the weather is always changing. Small shifts in weather patterns can and will change your local weather. Glass-off sessions can be found as a front passes through as well. Again, fluctuations in the pressure/temperature gradients which directly affects the wind.

Your best bet is to keep your eye on the weather and what factors are coming into play, then check your local spot.

Hope this helps some, cheers,

Jonathan Warren
Surfline Forecaster/Meteorologist

Dear Surfline Forecasters,

This is my second year surfing in Southern California, and I have now surfed every season twice. To me it is obvious that winter offers the bigger NW swells which we all like, and occasional S swells in summer... besides that, I was wondering if you could give me a more precise
summary of the four surfing seasons in Southern California.. the pros, cons, and what to expect for each.

Thanks a bunch.

Robbie

Hey Robbie-

Here's a basic breakdown of what all the seasons typically experience both surf and wind/weather wise:

Spring: This is a transitional time when both the North Pacific and South Pacific can spit out swell, so we'll often see a peaky combo of NW/WNW and S/SW swells in the water. This is particularly good for the beachbreaks, which really like the cross of swells. We'll often see some of our largest Southern Hemi swells of the year between late March and May to with the Antarctic ice sheet being smallest (less ice equals more open for wind to blow over equals larger fetch/surf). NW windswell really starts to increase too as the North Pacific high settles into a position right off the US West Coast, setting up the aforementioned windswell but also lots of onshore NW wind.

Pros: Good combo of swells, bikinis start showing up on the beach

Cons: Onshore wind, water can get quite cold with the strong NW wind due to upwelling

Summer: South and Southwest Southern Hemi swells pulse in sporadically through the summer months, best in the south facing regions of Orange and Northern LA Counties, as well as select areas in San Diego and Ventura. Unfortunately, long periods of flatness can and often do prevail when storm activity in the South Pacific takes a breather. NW windswell still occasionally kicks up, but is not as strong or consistent as the spring months. S/SE hurricane swells start to make an occasional appearance, generally from August through October.

Pros: warmer water, lots of bikinis on the beach

Cons: long flat spells, crowded lineups, most afternoons are blown out with an onshore wind/seabreeze

Fall: Similar to spring but with generally much better conditions. We can often see a good combo of WNW and S/SW swell, which is again particularly good for the beachbreaks (think about the Fire swell from Oct. 2007). Wind conditions are often excellent as this is the season for Santa Anas and several days with offshore wind all day.

Pros: Good combo of swells, excellent wind conditions, kids are back in school

Cons: Um...maybe slightly less bikinis on the beach?

Winter: Generally larger and more consistent swells out of the W/NW...this is prime season for spots in Santa Barbara, Ventura, South LA and most of San Diego. Weather can deteriorate a bit but often for only a day or two in SoCal before sunny skies and excellent conditions return. Many days with clear blues skies and light wind/glassy conditions all day.

Pros: Generally the largest and most consistent surf of the year, less crowds

Cons: occasional bouts of inclement weather, poor water quality due to run off after rain, colder water and air temps, limited days of bikinis on the beach

Hope that helps!

Kevin Wallis
Surfline Forecaster

There really wasn't a winter this year in ny at least not a real one will the unusually high temps for this winter effect the water temps for the summer and if so what effects could it have as far as summer swells go.

Hi Richard,

Well this type of winter was expected for the NE US region. We have La Nina in place and this has had the greatest effect on the the weather this winter for the entire US - La Nina will generally produce warmer conditions than average for the East Coast. Also, I wrote a blog entry that describes the situation in more detail here - Caribbean Surf Outlook.

While water temps will likely be able to rebound more quickly than usual, local water temps will generally be of no significant consequence to the overall synoptic or large scale weather patterns and thus the local generation of waves. The warmer temps can act to enhance/diminish (dependent upon thermal contrast between land and sea) the local landbreeze/seabreeze regime but overall the synoptic scale is going to domintate while water temps will only play a minor, localized role.

Now, when La Nina is in place, it is statistically correlated to increased tropical activity in the Atlantic. However, the previously mentioned La Nina has already hit the mature stage and thus we expect the La Nina event to subside though the spring and into summer. You can read more on this here - La Nina.

Hope this helps.

Best regards,
Mike Watson
Surfline EC Manager/Forecaster

Whats up forecasters,
I was at Huntington this past weekend, and i was noticing that the water was more turbid than normal, i couldnt tell what it was. My first guess might of been red tide, for the water had a rusty hue to it... but i'm not certain. The particulates were not granular in texture like sand; which eliminated the possibility that it was a rip kicking sand up hence causing the brown/rusty water. Provided the assumption that it WAS red tide, what causes it? The lack of swell (for i remember during the summer flat spells the red tide would rears its ugly head)? temperature change in water?

anyways just curious

thanks!
J0sh

Hi Josh,
Water clarity is caused by multiple factors and is influenced by many things on both a local and larger scale. The water clarity you saw over the weekend was the result of sand and other sediments being stirred up by a combination of either winds, rip tides, low tide mornings, waves, even possibly some snow melt runoff or a minor red tide.

Now, you ask 'assuming it was red tide, what causes it?'. Well, that's a more biological case where a red tide organism is in bloom and will taint the water color. There is more information on red tide in Mike Watson's blog here: Red tide?

Surfrider has another informative page on the topic as it relates to SoCal.

The red tide organism must be present and then local conditions must come together to give an ideal breeding ground for this type of phytoplankton. This is based on my personal observation, but I've sometimes noticed red tide flourish when a temporary cool water episode occurs, followed by replenished warmer water, plus a subtle amount of sunlight, like in Summertime.

Swell may influence the currents and thus the flow of red tide along the coast, but I've seen red tide in both large and small surf, so I not real sure about surf breaking up or killing the red tide organism at all? The phosfluorescence effect is really cool though as the waves glow on red tide at night.

Anyways, red tide still has a long way to go before it is understood or even predictable. I'm in no way a marine biologist, so if you do find other info out there, please let me know as I would like to be more educated in the phenomenon too.

Thanks for the question,
Katie Jackson
Surfline Forecaster
katie@surfline.com

What is the difference between refraction and diffraction? I hear these words use interchangeably so what's the difference?

A Physic's definition of refraction involves a change in the direction of waves as they pass from one medium to another. This is due to energy conservation when a wave changes its wavelength, and thus wave speed, as it enters a new medium (like in light or sound waves traveling from air to water). Now, in terms of ocean waves, refraction also involves a change of direction when a wave experiences a shift in wavelength and wave speed. However, this shift generally occurs due to changes in ocean depth. As a wave travels from deep to shallow water, the wavelength shortens, the wave speed slows down, and the wave will refract, or bend, toward the shallow area in order to conserve its energy. This is commonly seen in deep water canyons where the wave encounters shallow water along the canyon's edges, and the wave will bend/refract towards the shallow water. Sean Collin's explains how this can benefit surfers in the previous blog "Waves at Newport Pier?"

Diffraction occurs when a wave encounters an obstruction in its path and will change direction, or wrap around it. In ocean waves, we see this occur when a wave encounters an object like a jetty and the wave rotates around it (sometimes diffraction also occurs when a waves moves through a small opening in a seawall or between or two islands). The 'wrapping' or turning potential of a wave is larger in waves with a longer wavelength (i.e. longer period). This is why a long period Groundswell wave can sometime wrap a full 180 degrees around a barrier/jetty, whereas short-period Windswell wave will often shoot straight by it. Diffraction can occur in shallow or deep water and is separate from refraction since it is not a result of a change in ocean depth. However, both refraction and diffraction will involve a change in a wave's direction.

Now, you may see these two used interchangeably in ocean waves because we often see swell encountering an Island and both refraction and diffraction will occur in this case. The Island acts as a barrier and we see diffraction occur as the waves wrap around it. The bending of the waves then intensifies as they encounter shallower water around the Island, thus refraction occurs.

Hope this helps clear up the difference,
Katie Jackson
Surfline forecaster

Hy Guys,

Simple question: why do groundswells usually move from west to east?

Thanks,

Eduardo
Sao Paulo, Brasil

Eduardo,

To simply answer your question; there seems to be many more significant West to East moving groundswells due to the fact that there are many more wave-producing West to East moving frontal storms on our planet. Again, a result of the Earth's constant spin. That is why most West facing coastlines with a significant ocean is more consistent with groundswell activity than East facing beaches.

Swells move in which ever direction the wind source or fetch has produced the swell. Which can be in every or any direction. Swell actually "rings out" from the center of the storm or area of surface Low pressure as strong winds circulate around a common center of convergence across the ocean. The stronger the wind, the more energy is transferred into the ocean. As a result, longer period and deeper energy swell or groundswell, along with the surface chop or windswell.

Certain sections of the storm can be stronger as the pressure gradients become tightly packed together and wind speeds increase. This will usually happen with the interaction with an area of High pressure nearby and various other 'fuel' for storm intensification. Also, the movement/duration/strength/size of the wind fetch plays a major role in swell energy and size. This swell will then ring out in which ever direction it was pushed and travel for many many miles across the ocean until disrupted by a landmass.

Frontal systems and the wave-producing Lows do generally track from West to East due to the constant spin of the Earth for the North and South Hemispheres, and many West to East swells are produced from these storms. However, this doen't mean the swell only travels from West to East. For example, frontal Lows move Eastward off North America into the Atlantic, but a solid E/NE swell can develop for the US East coast as well as a solid W/NW swell for Europe, a SE swell for Canada, and S swell for Greenland, and a N swell for the Caribbean. All from the same system. Furthermore, Typhoons for Japan and Hurricanes for the US East Coast are other examples of strong East to West moving swells.

Keep in mind that practically every exposed coastline in the world can receive swell. Even the Great Lakes (although mostly windswell).. it all depends on the wind direction/speed/duration.

Hope this helps some, cheers,


Jonathan Warren
Surfline Forecaster/Meteorologist

Hey guys, why doesn't the Newport Pier ever break? Blackies breaks on a west and the point breaks on a south, but the pier itself never seems to have any waves. It's shallow enough (unlike Balboa) but never seems to break like the Huntington and San Clemente piers do. Just wondering.

Steve

Steve,

There is a deep water Newport Canyon immediately offshore from Newport Pier.
Like all other spots adjacent to deepwater canyons close to shore, the waves are focused from the edges of the canyons where the waves refract toward shallower water. As a result, larger waves will be present on the beach near the edges of the canyons, and smaller waves will be found on the beach directly in front of the canyon. This is due to the wave energy that originally began to travel down the middle of the canyon being stolen away by refraction, and added to the wave energy near the edges of the canyon.

Due to less wave action on the beach at the mouth of the canyon sand accretion often develops creating a wider beach or even a sandy point due to less wave erosion. You may notice that local fisherman and/or mariners often launch their boats and return to shore at the canyon mouth close to shore where there is less wave action. In fact, the reason why the Newport Pier was built in that exact location was due to less wave action on a sandy point, and close access to the deep Newport Canyon offshore for fishing.

Other areas in California very similar to Newport Pier is Scripps Pier at the mouth of the deep La Jolla Canyon just offshore. As we know Blacks benefits greatly with bigger waves from the north edge of the canyon while La Jolla Cove benefits with larger waves on the south edge of the canyon, while Scripps Pier located at the exact mouth of the canyon has smaller waves just like Newport Pier.

In Redondo Beach, the Redondo Canyon creates larger waves at Redondo Breakwall, and crossed up peaks at the Avenues to the south on the right swell from wave energy refracted out of the canyon. While King Harbor and Redondo's Horseshoe Pier generally have smaller waves unless there is a strong short period northwest wind swell running that is less affected by the canyon.

In Oxnard, Port Hueneme and Channel Islands Harbor are at the mouth of the Oxnard Canyon with smaller waves, because all the wave energy is refracted up toward Silver Strands and to some degree down toward the Hueneme beaches, depending on the swell direction.

Even up at Moss Landing the Monterey Canyon creates smaller waves at the entrance of Moss Landing Harbor at the mouth of the canyon, while much larger waves are refracted on the edges of the canyon to the north and south along the beach.

Attached is a graphic from Surfline's LOLA Nearshore Model showing the swell refracting on both sides of the Newport Canyon at Newport Pier. Assuming you're a Premium member you can check out these long term Nearshore forecasts to determine for yourself ahead of time whether the best spot will be Blackies or Newport Point on upcoming swells.

Hope you score!

Sean Collins

Hey Guys,

I think you guys are on point a lot on your forecasts and I was wondering what education background you guys have. Is it a combo of long-time surf knowledge/knowledge of the different types of models (basically knowledge gained from work experience) with a university degree or is it a purely a post-grad degree in meteorology with an emphasis on the ocean. Are there any specialized programs that you can do that make one more marketable to join a surf forecasting team like Surfline? Do you have to have an undergraduate background in physics and earth sciences to get into such a program? I would love to forecast swells around the world, and believe I have the drive and capacity to do so, but I am thinking that my economics degree is not going to be helping me too much!
Long-time ocean weather observer,
Bermudian BA degree

Hi Bermudian,
This is a great inquiry which all of us forecasters working at Surfline have crossed at one point. A great starting place on the subject would be to first check out our MEET THE FORECASTERS section.

As you can see, the Surfline forecasting staff is composed of a variety of educational backgrounds. We have a very solid and educated staff and there is a vast combination of surfing-ocean-weather experience, formal and un-formal education, past and ongoing meteorology and oceanography research, and much, much, more. There is not one particular program or educational route which will render the best path to becoming a surf forecaster. It is truly a matter of passion and if you want to learn to forecast surf, its as simply as putting yourself out there and learning as much as you can on the subject.

As far as formal education goes, I recommend in gaining knowledge in the topics of Physical Oceanography and Meteorology. Meteorology will help you focus on how storms/winds/pressure/etc. effect the ocean surface to produce ideal swell conditions. On the other end, Physical Oceanography will allow you to understand waves/swell characteristics (i.e. wave speed, period, height). Surf forecasting takes in the combination of both the weather and ocean working together. Generally, school programs tend to be split between Meteorology and Oceanography so it's a choice of which classes you would rather focus on more (however, most programs will integrate a few classes of the other in too). Don't be too scared but both topics have a foundation in physics, math, and earth science. If you are in it just for the basics, it is not necessary to be too in depth with the calculations; however, you will want to know the core wave calculations, like wave speed. How far you decide to take your formal education is up to you, whether it be a few classes or a PhD, we all come from different backgrounds.

Now as for un-formal education, this is an ongoing and intensive procedure. I would say the only way to gather this kind of knowledge is through experience, experience, experience. To start, begin with researching information on your local beaches and simply start creating your own forecast. Trail-and-error will teach you a lot in this subject. When certain swells/winds hit your break: note it, chart it, document it, and remember those details for future swell events. It is an ongoing and evolving process to learn to forecast, since weather and seas will continually change. For me personally, I grew up sailing and surfing and that gave me the basic knowledge and experience I needed to get started. Being familiar with, and learn to read, the clouds, winds, waves, swells. This is all part of forecasting.

Surfline is a great source for all the tools you'll need to start surf forecasting. We provide LOLA, buoys, weather models, charts, and more for users to produce their own forecast. Most, if not all, our official written forecasts, are composed by using tools on the Surfline site.

For a great general overview of surf forecasting, I would recommend reading the Surfology 101 section written by Sean Collins.

If you want more scholastic info, there are some great modules availible on the COMET program's website
I recommend the COMET Wave Life Cycle's to start. They also have a ton of weather modules if you go to the home page.

As for school programs, it depends on what you are looking for. A masters/phd program, an online program, a community college class? They are all out there, you just gotta do some research to see what fits your needs best.

I hope this gets you going in the right direction.
Best of luck!
Katie Jackson
Surfline forecaster