Any info on Tropical Cyclone Oli impacting Tahiti?

Tahiti and French Polynesia have been battered by something other than large southerly swells roaring up out of the South Pacific the past couple days: Tropical Cyclone Oli. TC Oli initially formed as Tropical Storm 7 near the Cook Islands on February 1st and then gradually strengthened into a Category 1 cyclone with 65 knot wind by early in the morning on February 3rd. Rapid intensification took place from Wednesday afternoon to early Thursday morning (local time), with TC Oli exploding from a Category 1 cyclone with 80 knot sustained wind to a category 4 storm with 155 knot sustained wind.





Although Oli is now located about 480 miles south of Tahiti, and gradually weakening as he heads toward the Austral Islands, heavy rain and winds in excess of 100 knots were experienced on Tahiti as it passed roughly 150 miles west of the island as a category four storm on Thursday, February 4th. A large west-northwest swell in excess of 20 feet also hammered the north and west facing shores of Tahiti and many of the other islands in the area.



Tropical cyclones impacting French Polynesia are quite rare, with the last major cyclone (category 3 or higher) being Cyclone Wasa in December of 1991. The El Nino fueled 1982-1983 time period saw an exceptional number of tropical cyclones affect the region, including Category 3 cyclones Nisha-Orama (Feb 83) and Veena (April 83) and Category 2 Cyclone Rewa (March 83).

Be sure to keep an eye on Hurricanetrak to get all the latest updates on Oli.

Todos Santos Big Wave Event Forecast Update: 2/4/10

Medium size (10'+) swell for Sunday the 7th

Watching possible better series of swells starting the 13th

In the short term we will see a medium size W to WNW swell build as we move through the weekend, thanks to a developing storm now centered a few hundred miles off the British Columbia coast. This storm is forecast to have several relatively small and shifting fetches over the next 24+ hours, which will limit size and swell period.

For Northern Baja/Todos, we'll see a building trend through the weekend, with the WNW swell strongest on Sunday. Overall this shorter to mid period swell will produce waves mainly in the 10' range Hawaiian scale (15-20'+ faces on the better sets, occasionally a little larger). We'll also see moderate NW wind in the 8-15kt range through the day on Sunday as high pressure builds into the coast and not the best of conditions.

Things continue to look more promising as we move through the middle part of the month, as a series of storms/swell will impact the West Coast during that time. The first of these swells will build into Northern Baja for the weekend of the 13th, thanks to a large storm that is expected to strengthen off Japan in a few days.

The swell from this storm may be a little limited in size for Northern Baja/Todos Santos as the storm is now forecast to weaken once it moves east of Hawaii, but 10-12'+ swell (15-25' faces) looks possible at that time by Saturday the 13th. We'll know more on this once we see this storm pull together and evolve over the next 3-6 days and will update everyone further next week.

Ultra long range charts indicate a number of storms located closer to the California coast are will develop in the wake of the above storm. Under that scenario, larger and possibly more westerly swells are possible during the week of the 15th, although wind/weather conditions will also have to be watched closely. More details to follow in our next few updates...

-The Surfline Forecast Team

Next update: Monday the 8th, unless we see a significant change to the above forecast

Volcom Pipeline Pro Forecast (updated 1.31.2010)

BRIEF OVERVIEW: Although the swell will be on the decline, Monday morning will still offer plenty of good waves and clean conditions for the finals!


(Hawaiian Scale)
MONDAY 1st
SWELL/SURF: Fading NW swell provides 4-6'+ sets in the morning at Pipe (8-12'+ faces), strongest early. Look for clean/glassy conditions for the morning.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Calm to very light SE wind in the morning. Then light to moderate SW-West Kona winds rise up over the afternoon, staying under 10kts.

TUESDAY 2nd
SWELL/SURF: Old NW energy lingers as a new NW fills in late. Pipe continues to produce surf in the 3-4' range (head high to a few feet overhead). Surface texture and bump, getting worse into the afternoon.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Light-moderate SW-West winds in the morning, becoming breezy from the West into the afternoon. Front moving through over the afternoon/night.

WEDNESDAY 3rd
SWELL/SURF: New NW swell fills in further over the morning and peaks by the afternoon with 6-9'+ Pipe. Poor, mixed-up conditions expected.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Breezy North veering NE winds through the day.

THURSDAY 4th
SWELL/SURF: NW swell holds fairly steady through the day with 6-8' Pipe. Conditions better, but still not favorable with breezy sideshore flow.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Breezy NE winds.

FRIDAY 5th
SWELL/SURF: Fading NW swell provides 4-6'+ sets in the morning at Pipe, strongest early. Look for conditions to clean up with offshore easterly Trades.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Breezy ENE-East Trades, possibly decreasing through the day.


DISCUSSION & LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER/WIND
A weak approaching front nears the Islands on Monday and stalls into Tuesday. Look for calm to very light SE winds Monday morning, becoming light to moderate and clocking SW-West over the afternoon. On Tuesday, moderate westerly flow will gradually become breezy through the day as the stalled front strengthens and pushes through the Islands. At this time, the front is expected to pass through over Tuesday afternoon/evening with strong high pressure building into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Wednesday will see breezy North winds veer NE through the day and continue through Thursday. By Friday and into the weekend, Easterly trades prevail and gradually decrease.

SWELL/SURF(Hawaiian Scale)
The current NW swell (310-330) will gradually fade tonight and through Monday. Monday morning still offers 4-6'+ sets at Pipe (8-12'+ faces) with clean/glassy conditions. By Tuesday, the surf eases even more, but hangs fairly steady in the 3-4' range (head high to 2-3' overhead).

A new storm of the Northwest Pacific developed a good fetch for Hawaii off the Kamchatka Peninsula recently and should remain intact over the next day or so, gradually moving into the central NPAC and pushing toward the Islands. As a result, we're expecting a run of more solid NW swell (310-325 shifting 325-350) to fill in late Tuesday afternoon/night and peak around mid-day on Wednesday. This swell will then hold fairly steady into Thursday before slowly easing into the weekend. This swell is looking very similar in size to today's swell with plenty of well overhead surf on the North Shore Wednesday through Friday (Feb 3rd-5th). Pipe producing 6-9'+ sets Wed/Thurs. However, wind conditions don't look good until Friday.


Next update: Monday evening, February 1st


-The Surfline Forecast Team

SoCal Swell Review: Dec 9-10 WNW swell

As many of our premium subscribers know, the swell that affected Southern California on Wednesday, December 9th and Thursday, December 10th was a selective one; due to the very long period and initially more 'northerly' swell angle (290-300) it focused highly in specific areas, while leaving other areas in a swell void and seeing much smaller surf.

These types of swells present a dilemma for our forecast team: how to effectively communicate that some regions will be going off, while others will be significantly smaller, without acting like traffic cops and directing people to a specific break (we were actually much more detailed than normal in the forecast, due mainly to extreme differences in size up and down the coast).

So, starting with this past swell, we're going to occasionally blog on these unique types of swell events, in the hopes that we can educate our user base on where and when to score on similar swells in the future, and also offer those who are not premium members a glimpse into the written forecast information that you would have access to each and every day as a Surfline member. Kind of like an addendum to these Swell Stories, but with actual archived forecast data included, and even a little self critique when necessary.

The feedback we received from you, our users, following the completion of the Dec 9th-10th swell was a mixed bag. While a couple users told us that we nailed it in the areas they checked/surfed, there were others who were pissed and claimed we over called the swell.

After examining the buoy data, receiving reports up and down the coast, and surfing ourselves, we think both factions were actually right. If you were surfing at one of those long period breaks that really focused the swell on Wednesday, you scored solid and building waves through the day. However, Thursday and Friday didn't materialize quite as large as we hoped, especially from our early predictions from the weekend when the storm/swell was developing (we brought the numbers down a bit in the subsequent days).

To give you an idea of what we were forecasting, have a look at the long range written forecast that we issued from the weekend before the swell, on Saturday the 5th, here. To summarize that forecast:

A very long period NW swell (290-300 degrees) would be building on Wednesday, December 9th, focusing highly in areas like parts of Southern Ventura, select breaks of the South Bay, extreme North Orange County and South San Diego. Those breaks were expected to see surf running anywhere from solidy overhead up to double overhead+.

Many other spots would be left in somewhat of a swell void, with the longer period swell focusing elsewhere and being 'stolen' away. Those regions included much of Santa Barbara, North LA County, Orange County (from the HB Pier down through South OC) and much of North San Diego County. While some fun waves were expected in some of those areas on Wednesday, more size would be showing on Thursday and into Friday (the 10th-11th) as the swell came down in period a bit, and also from a more westerly angle (280-300 degrees).

Below are several nearshore model graphics showing the difference in swell size throughout the region on the different swell periods/directions, archived nearshore model graphics to help further illustrate this forecast, as well as some photos from some of those hot spots on Wednesday.

The below image displays the swell heights that will reach the Southern California shoreline after shadowing (by both Pt. Conception and the offshore islands) and the offshore bathymetry takes effect. This is for a 290 degree swell at 20 second swell period, which is what we saw on Wednesday, December 5th. Notice how highly focused it is in certain areas (indicated by red bars), while other regions can be much smaller (indicated by blue bars). Spots that are in between are represented in yellow.


Same set up as the above image, but with swell direction of 285 and swell period of 15 seconds. Notice how the swell is able to 'spread out' a little more and offer a little more size for more areas. Hot spots are still indicated by red lines, medium spots in yellow and cold spots remain in blue.


The following three images are from our archived LOLA nearshore model. They show some hot spots as this swell intially filled in (Ventura, extreme North OC) and some not so hot spots (Santa Barbara, HB Pier and Newport), although they got more size on Thur/Fri as the swell period came down and swell direction also became more westerly.








Somewhere in Orange County on Wednesday, December 9th.

So how does this weeks upcoming swell compare to the macker swells of Dec 2005 and Dec 2007?

-Nate

Hey Nate-

This will be a very different swell from each of the past, very large early December swells. Overall this upcoming, December 2009 swell will be quite a bit smaller (although still sizeable), less 'westerly' in direction, but longer lasting than the Dec 2007 event and especially the Dec 2005 swell event. The reasons why are detailed below:

-Position of the storms: The 2005 and 2007 storms were located very close to the California coast, roughly 1000-1200 miles offshore, and also at very southerly latitudes. This allowed for very westerly surf (270-300 for the 2007 swell and 260-290 for the 2005 swell) that was able to filter into all the nooks and crannies of Southern California. Consistency was also high, as the swell had very little distance to decay before impacting Southern California.

-Also, with the close proximity of the 2005 and 2007 storms, all of the resulting swell periods (13-20 seconds) hit the coast within a few hours of each other, which further helped consistency and allowed more of the coast to see surf (different breaks come alive on different swell periods, much like they do with different swell directions). This also caused the 2005 and 2007 swells to be primarily one day events; rising and dropping sharply over a 24-30 hour time period. I've heard my boss Sean Collins compare these types of swell to a 'shotgun blast', with all the swell directions and swell periods arriving very close to each other.

-The swell for later this week is coming from a storm that is much further away, around 2500 miles when it was strongest (compare charts from the Dec 2007 and Dec 2009 events below). It also didn't drop quite as far south, with the resulting swell being more northwest in direction; initially building in at 290-295 degrees on Wednesday the 9th and then shifting more to the west-northwest (280-295) on Thursday and Friday the 10th-11th. So with the more NW/WNW swell, you won't see all the nooks and crannies of Southern California come to life as much (but still some fun waves, even at the S/SW facing breaks).

-Furthermore, with the most recent storm being much further away, the differing swell period bands will be able to space out more (long period swells move faster than shorter period swells), with the long period swell of 17-20+ seconds arriving about a day ahead of the medium period stuff in the 14-16 second range. This long period swell will build through the day on Wednesday out of the northwest direction (290-295) and act more like a laser beam than a shotgun blast (another excellent 'Collinsism'), focusing highly at the breaks that really favor the long period energy, while leaving many other spots in a swell void and much smaller. There will literally be stretches of beach where it will go from double overhead to shoulder high or less within a couple miles.

We've detailed the hot and cold spots for Wednesday in our Premium Edition Southern California Forecast and be sure to also check out the Nearshore Model as well.

By Thursday and Friday we'll see more of the WNW'erly, mid period swell fill in (280-295 at 14-17 seconds), which will help spread things out quite a bit more throughout Southern California. So, if you know where to look, you can get two full days of solid surf on Wednesday and Thursday and even pretty good size surf into Friday (just watch out for the increasing S/SE wind by Thursday afternoon as the next front approaches Southern California!).

Hope that answers your question and good luck scoring waves!

Kevin Wallis
Surfline Forecaster

The low pressure systems (L) that created the swells for December 2007 (top) and December 2009 (bottom). Notice how much closer and also slightly further south the December 2007 storm is. This allowed for a larger and more westerly swell than we'll see later this week.

BILLABONG PRO MAUI FORECAST Wednesday Morning 12/09/2009

BRIEF OVERVIEW: Strong surf will continue for Honolua on Wednesday, before fading through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Wind conditions will remain favorable through the end of the week as well.

WEDNESDAY 9th
SWELL/SURF: NW swell remains solid, gradually backing down. Honolua will see 10-12'+ faces Wednesday, with larger waves up to 15'+ at times. Clean conditions.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Light/variable easterly wind.

THURSDAY 10th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller/fading NW swell with 5-8' faces in the morning. Decrease in size through the day. Clean conditions.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Very light E/ENE wind.

FRIDAY 11th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller/fading surf with 3-5' faces early. New WNW swell starts to gradually build for the late afternoon/evening but is really too west to wrap much more than small surf into the bay and the overall trend is a fading one.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Building and moderate E/ENE trades as high pressure moves in from the west.

SATURDAY 12th
SWELL/SURF: Small WNW swell wrap around shoulder high.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Light ESE/SE wind through most of the day. Possible shift to S/SSW flow after dark.

SUNDAY 13th
SWELL/SURF: Fading and very small WNW swell wrap.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Possible very light wind shifting W/NW/N through the day.

DISCUSSION & LONG RANGE FORECAST
A front will pass well to the north of Hawaii Wed/Thurs, with a weak pressure gradient taking shape over the Islands. Light/variable easterly wind will prevail, with the possibility of a sea breeze developing in the afternoon on Wednesday. High pressure will then briefly strengthen over the state on Friday, setting up a temporary increase in East Trades to moderate levels.

By the weekend, the next front will be approaching the region although it looks to remain well north of the islands. At this point, good wind continue through Saturday, with light to moderate wind out of the ESE/SE. As the front passes to the north, Sunday will bring wind shifting from the W>NW through the day, although it looks very light right now (really light/variable W/NW). By Monday, gentle ENE flow looks likely to return. Conditions Saturday through Monday will depend on the behavior/timing of the approaching front, so stay tuned.

The huge surf that has been slamming the Hawaiian Islands the past couple days will be easing in size on Wednesday and also turning a slight more NW/NNW direction. Surf size will remain strong at Honolua on Wednesday in the 10-12' range on the face, with some larger bombs up to 15' at times. Fading and smaller surf will prevail Thursday, with a decreasing trend continuing on Friday.

Going a little further out; we're watching another storm that is centered about 1500 miles northwest of Hawaii this morning. Unfortunately, the swell resulting from this storm will be from a very westerly direction at 300-315 deg, and will be largely blocked from Honolua by Molokai. Overall, we're expecting only minor swell to wrap in starting late Friday and best on Saturday around shoulder high, with a fading trend continuing from earlier in the week through the weekend.

Beyond that, long range charts indicate we could see a slightly more northerly swell for around Monday-Tuesday the 14th and 15th that will offer larger surf than the swell for Saturday. We'll have further details on this in the next few days.

Next update: Thursday morning, December 10th

-The Surfline Forecast Team

Why are SW swells shadowed for North OC, whereas South OC and San Diego are not?

The simple answer would be the approach angle of specific SW swells with the blocking by Catalina and San Clemente Islands on North OC, but we'll dig a little deeper.

First; we need to consider the initial shadowing of SW swells long before they approach the coast of Southern CA. Developing from storms near New Zealand and with an angle of roughly 210-220, these particular SW swells will undergo filtration by Tahiti and the many other islands of the South Pacific. So, before you read further, check out this great blog by Kevin Wallis on the 'Tahitian Shadow'.

Now, lets move closer to shore and look at the shadow affect on SW swells by the Channel Islands, specifically Catalina and San Clemente Islands on North Orange County.

The image below displays an example of a 180 degree South groundswell of 18 seconds, which North OC is very open to receive this angle. Infact, North OC is one of the, if not the best location of SoCal to maximize this energy. The more South to even SSE directions will sweep right on by San Diego and South OC where they head straight into the beaches of North OC. This is due to the more southerly exposure of North OC before the coastline gradually curves toward the west as you head south. Furthermore, these swells are not only unaffected by the Channel Islands, but they are clear of shadowing by the South Pacific islands as well.

180 degree South groundswell of 18 seconds


As the swell angle becomes more westerly (roughly over 205 degrees from the SW), North Orange County really starts to feel the shadowing effects of Catalina and San Clemente Islands. Whereas South OC, San Diego, the South Bay, and parts of Southern Ventura are the better exposed locations. However, South OC will start to fall under the shadow as well once the angle becomes too westerly.

205 degree SW groundswell of 18 seconds



For SW swells that are right around the cut off line for northern Orange County (roughly around 205 degrees), the difference in period can play a major role if some energy is able to wrap around the southern end of San Clemente Island and get into parts of North OC (mainly for the Newport area). The longer period energy of a SW groundswell of 205deg will wrap in better than the shorter period energy. Therefore, you will find the newer/building long period SW energy to show better for North OC as opposed to the older/fading shorter period energy. *For most swell trains, especially those that develop within a longer distance (like Southern Hemi swells for CA), the longer period energy will always precede the shorter period energy as they travel faster. Therefore, the longer period energy usually arrives first.

Side Note: As the angle becomes very west (WSW to West+, from North Hemi storms), the swell energy will start to make it into North OC over the top of Catalina and through the San Pedro Channel. Which North Hemi swells and North OC would be a different blog, stay tuned.

For more info and images on swell exposure and shadowing throughout CA, check out The California Surf Guide by Sean Collins.


Cheers,

Jonathan Warren
Surfline Forecaster

BILLABONG PIPELINE MASTERS FORECAST, MONDAY MORNING 12/14/2009

BRIEF OVERVIEW: Fading surf persists through Monday morning as old WNW swell offers mainly 4-5' faces at Pipe/Backdoor. We'll start to see a gradual pick up in new WNW swell late this afternoon and evening, with that swell filling in further and looking strongest on Tuesday with 8-10' faces at Backdoor and Pipe along with occasional waves up to 12'. A new N swell will build late Tuesday and hold Wednesday to keep the surf at similar size. Conditions will be favorable on Monday and most of Tuesday, before deteriorating Wednesday and Thursday with a frontal approach and passage.

MONDAY 14th
SWELL/SURF: Mainly old WNW swell fading further in the morning with 4-5' faces early. New, mid period NW swell starting to build over the late afternoon/evening with 6-8' faces by sundown, primarily at Backdoor.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Light/variable easterly through the morning, turning toward light NE in the afternoon.

TUESDAY 15th
SWELL/SURF: Mid period WNW swell builds further with 6-10'+ faces at Pipe/Backdoor (mainly Backdoor) and occasional larger waves up to 12' on the face.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Favorable wind conditions through the morning with light flow shifting from ESE/SE as a front approaches. Afternoon to evening wind gradually shifting from SE/SSE/S/SSW.

WEDNESDAY 16th
SWELL/SURF: Mix of mid period WNW swell holding/easing and new N swell building, strongest early, with 6-10' faces at Pipe/Backdoor (mainly Backdoor).
WIND/CONDITIONS: Moderate SW/WSW wind through the day.

THURSDAY 17th
SWELL/SURF: WNW/N swell mix fading, with 5-8' faces at Pipe/Backdoor (mainly Backdoor).
WIND/CONDITIONS: Moderate to breezy win shifting from NW/N/NNE through the day as front passes.

FRIDAY 18th
SWELL/SURF: Potential for new, shorter to mid period WNW/NW swell mix with 6-8-10' faces and possibly larger if storm behaves as currently forecast.
WIND/CONDITIONS: Moderate to breezy NE/ENE trades possibly return.

DISCUSSION & LONG RANGE FORECAST
High pressure is centered over the Western US today and extends through the Central Pacific. Another weak ridge is forecast to build from the west this afternoon. As a result, light/variable easterly wind through the morning will shift to light NE this afternoon.

A front will approach and pass for the middle days of the week. Conditions look favorable for most of Tuesday, with wind gradually shifting from ESE/SE in the morning, to SE/S/SSW over the late afternoon and evening. Moderate SW/WSW flow on Wednesday will then give way to breezy wind shifting from NW/N/NNE on Thursday as the front passes. Moderate to strong NE/ENE trades look likely to return by Fri/Sat. All of the above will depend on the exact timing of the front, so stay tuned for further updates.

A somewhat disorganized, but rather broad storm track has taken hold over the past couple days. As a result, we'll see overlapping, mid period WNW (300-325) and N swells (~350) move in for the next couple days, with the largest waves showing Tuesday and Wednesday.
New WNW swell will start to gradually build this late afternoon/evening at Pipe and Backdoor (generally favoring Backdoor), but will be strongest on Tuesday. We'll see 8-10' faces for Tuesday, with the largest waves up to 12' on the face. As the WNW swell eases on Wednesday, a new N swell will move in to keep surf up an showing primarily at Backdoor with more 6-10' faces and occasional larger waves. Fading surf takes over on Thursday (conditions also look unfavorable both Wed and Thur). The storm creating the N swell is still very much active, so we'll have more details on it in tomorrow's forecast.

Going a little further out, forecast charts/models indicate a shorter to mid period WNW/NW swell mix could move in on Friday with 6-8 occ. 10'+ faces at Backdoor and Pipe, although it doesn't look like a very clean, well organized swell at this time. A slightly larger, longer period and likely overall cleaner WNW swell looks possible for the weekend. More concrete details on that as we see the storm pull together in the next couple days.

Next update: Tuesday morning, December 15th

-The Surfline Forecast Team

The below image shows the LOLA nearshore swell model and the surf size we can expect for Backdoor and Pipe on Tuesday, when our new WNW swell arrives.

Trying to understand the buoys for the North Shore?

Sean Collins explains...

Data corresponds to Wednesday the 18th, Nov 2009

The North swell is showing on multiple buoys, but difficult to see underneath all the big ENE Trade swell. Here are a few images from our LOLA buoy data showing the swell. Obviously not the best swell direction for the contest at Haleiwa, but it's out there and will be building throughout the day.

Here's the 51001 buoy NW of Oahu but no clear isolation of the north swell on the top graphic, but we can see it on the Height vs. Period in the lower graphic of the same buoy. The green line is a south swell and the blue line from 235 @ 17 just a tiny blip from a western typhoon. When we look at the same 51001 buoy through the Height vs. Period view below we can see the increasing energy in the yellow and orange 11-14 second period bands, which is the north swell buried under the trade swell.



On the 51100 buoy North of Oahu, we can see the North swell better. LOLA has separated it out to be about 6 foot at 12 seconds. In the Height vs. Period view below we can also see the increase in swell energy in the 11-17" period bands, similar but stronger than the 51001 buoy father west. That confirms the main body of the swell is father to the east. (Please ignore the "You Are Here" buoy location map on the left as this buoy is located North of Hawaii and not off southern California).



And on our local Waimea Bay buoy off Oahu's North shore, we can clearly see the increasing North swell, at about 4 feet at 11 seconds with the Green line below. And in the bottom Height vs. Period view we see it in the 11-17" yellow and red lines.






Sean...

Curious with figuring out the different swell situations for the Triple Crown?

Below is a tutorial by Sean Collins on a specific swell scenario, given on Thursday, Nov 12th. This info can help you better understand the tools available on Surfline for surf on the North Shore, Oahu.

Surfline Forecast and North Shore LOLA FORECAST Dashboard. Probably the best 7-day overview of the North Shore.

As we know Haleiwa prefers more WNW direction in the swells and you can roll over the swell lines to see more directional information.

As we can see below on the LOLA Forecast Dashboard, OFFSHORE SWELLS view (highlighted in Yellow), the north pulse is dropping fast, strong ENE trades and associated swell will dominate, and the next decent North swell opportunity looks around Tuesday and Wednesday with very strong easterly Trades.




On the same page, if you click on the NEARSHORE & SWELL TRACKING MODELS Tab right above the Dashboard there (highlighted in Yellow below) is a great Nearshore Model that will indicate exactly how much swell will get into what areas of the North Shore, AFTER wrapping through the outer reefs.



Scrolling down on the same page will also provide more Swell and Wind charts, but the Long Range Swell Track model below is a great long range planning tool to see possible swells up to 14 days away. On this model we can also see that Tuesday through Saturday improve for northwest swell on the North Shore. Please keep in mind that the storms expected to generate NW swells more than 4-5 days away still haven't even happened yet so this model output may change depending on the actual storms, but it is a great tool for what to expect in the long term.



And we know the buoys are very important for Hawaii. On the same page just choose the LOLA Buoys tab (highlighted in Yellow below) to review the latest buoy reports. Surfline's LOLA buoy reports are unique in that we actually separate ALL of the swells at the buoy into separate wave trains contrary to the general data you'll find anywhere else. This is obviously very important for us to separate the Easterly trade swell from the possible Northwest swell on the way to the North shore.

On the 51001 buoy below we can see that all the swells currently are from the ENE, along with a very strong NE-070 swell at 14-15 seconds that is generally missing Oahu entirely. Assuming the future storms coming off Japan behave as forecast, by Monday we can use this link to watch for new northwest swell filtering in underneath all the stronger easterly trade swell. The NW swell will show from the different direction and also at a longer swell period of probably around 14-16 seconds, compared to the expected 8-12 second easterly trade swell.

The bottom graphic is an example of our Height vs. Period calculation from the exact same buoy data, which displays all of the wave energy within each period band. This is a very valuable planning tool to watch for new long period forerunners preceding the main body of a new swell. The forerunners will usually be the purple lines in the 20+ second periods - and the stronger and longer period they are, the stronger the following swell will likely be building on the buoy in the next 6-12 hours.



Hopefully these links and descriptions will be some help. We certainly hope that high pressure breaks down soon, and looks like it will in the longer range!

Sean...