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Legend for Arrows and Colors on the Forecast Pages Posted on 03/18/10 On surf forecasts, you use arrows. Sometimes they are green or red. The size also changes. Where on you site is a legend showing what that means?
Here ya go, a basic breakdown of the arrows and colors that we use on the forecast pages:
  
Posted on 03/13/10 Does Surfline provide consulting to help analyze swell and wind impact on coastlines and reefs?
Yes, the Surfline staff offers special consulting services to create specific reports and analysis of the wave data well beyond the basic data presentation from the Wavewatch III swell model. In many locations there will need to be significant additional analysis to determine the nearshore wave climate after the affects of wave shadowing, diffraction, refraction, shoaling, and all of these variables in association with the analysis of the offshore bathymetry that can have a drastic effect on the nearshore wave climate.
Here are links to a few samples of our consulting work: 1. Long Beach, California Breakwater Study 2. Teahupoo, Tahiti April-May Report and analysis for Billabong 3. Teahupoo, Tahiti August-September Report and analysis for Billabong Additionally, some clients have also requested the creation of a real time nearshore swell model that we can build, similar to the nearshore models we offer on Surfline/Buoyweather. Nearshore Model Sample Analyzing The Model Data There will be projects and applications when the basic Wavewatch III data will not present enough detail. As an example, there could be a nearshore harbor or surf location that would not experience wave activity from trade winds off the coast, or from swells from specific directions, but would experience very large waves from certain swells from specific directions and swell periods. Offshore islands, reefs, and shallow water bathymetry offshore could often greatly enhance the ability of large waves to reach a nearshore location depending on specific swell variables. The Wavewatch III basic model data provides the fundamental data needed to draw conclusions regarding the wind and wave climate and can be very valuable. The wind data is self explanatory, but the wave data can be very complex to analyze. Significant Wave Height ( HTSGW) is the combined wave heights of the ocean at that location, and represents the highest 1/3 of the highest waves as a trained observer would record for that time. Peak Wave Direction and Peak Wave Periods represent the single dominant swell or wave train at the time for that location in deep water, but there could be many other contributing swells. Depending on the situation and location, there may need to be additional analysis to accurately associate this deep water wave data to the wave climate at a nearshore location. Most of the time the wave energy at one deep water location has traveled from another locations to get there, and there will usually also be multiple swells and wave trains coming from many different sources and directions, sometimes from storms many thousands of miles away. The historical Wavewatch III model data does not separate these different swells and wave trains at a location but only provides the combined Significant Wave Height, Peak Direction, and Peak Period metrics. Depending on the research application, there may be the need to separate the wave trains and isolate specific swells that are within the Significant Wave Height metric. In these instance we are available to provide additional consulting to help you with your research. We have developed methods to isolate specific swells within the Significant Wave Height metric, and can also analyze the local bathymetry and other variables that may affect the wave climate at a specific location. If you have a special project that may require more attention we will be happy to provide our help on a case by case consulting basis. Please contact us at consulting@surfline.com. We also serve many customers who want to review long term historical wave data for specific locations in their research work and/or for special applications. We currently can create 12 years of historical wave data for any location in the world. A few examples of these clients and their work: 1. Coastal engineers who want to research the long term wave climate at a location such as a harbor or an offshore platform. 2. Shipping companies in their research of long term schedules versus wind and wave conditions along their shipping routes. 3. Oceanographers and marine biology scientists who want to study waves, and even their possible long term affects of wave actions on coral reefs or other structures. 4. Surf contest organizers who want to schedule their multi million dollar events during the periods of the best optimum surfing conditions for specific locations. 5. Attorney's and legal proceedings who want to determine the exact ocean and wave conditions at a specific time when an incident may have taken place (we also have provided expert witness testimony to support findings and analysis). 6. Energy companies are exploring the incredible resource of ocean wave energy and the location of possible wave generating stations are crucial to position in the best wave environment. Our special historical wave data and consulting can greatly help in deciding new wave energy locations as well as to predict far in advance the expected wave energy output for a specific location. If you have a project or application that would require more than our basic historical data, please contact us for more information at consulting@surfline.com.
Posted on 02/17/10 Hello Forecasters
So we can blame the lack of surf here in NY due to El Niño and its pulling down of the northern jet stream, correct? How long did our weather take to get to normal (some swells) back in the 97/98 El Niño? Any information would help, can we see the light at the end of the tunnel (keg)? Thank you, John Excellent questions John! While NY has suffered from a very poor January and very marginal February, we have been expecting this to occur. We do get an amplified polar jet, but it is the subtropical jet that plays the biggest role of influencing our storm track during El Niño winters.
We are at the midpoint of winter and the impacts of El Niño are in full effect, and the current El Niño index El Niño index indicates that we are in a strong El Niño - the next update will come at the end of February so at that point we will be able to see the trend - whether up or down. However, by looking at past history, El Niño tends to peak around the North American winter while trending towards more ENSO neutral conditions through Spring and into Summer. As we indicated in our El Niño Atlantic outlook earlier this year, we were expecting a more typical Northeaster pattern - storms tracking from SW to NE towards the Canadian Maritimes versus systems that track through the Great Lakes. It is often times these Great Lakes systems that allow for the solid S swells to build in the western Atlantic that will then pound Long Island and New Jersey with solid surf. Thus this winter's storm track has produced some good swell for the Northeast region, but often times these swells have been the wrong direction or greeted by poor winds for Long Island. So over the remainder of February through March it looks like El Niño business as usual. The one factor that needs to be considered - since El Niño tends to trend towards a more ENSO neutral state and sometimes even towards a La Niña (this happened in 1997/98), the upper level shear that helped kill the Atlantic tropical season this past year will not be a factor in 2010. If there are more questions then please feel free to contact us! Best, Mike Watson Freezing Forecaster in Florida
Posted on 02/16/10 Can I get streaming images on my iPhone?
YES. Streaming cameras are now available on the iPhone!
Premium Surfline members can watch live streaming on almost all of our 140 cameras. On the iPhone, open 'http://mobile.surfline.com' in the browser and navigate to one of our camera pages. Underneath the camera image you'll see an orange button "Stream this Camera in HD" - click it to launch the player.  If you have problems - try clicking on "LD Stream" for the lower definition stream Android users: Hold on, we're working on a streaming system for you too!
Posted on 02/05/10 Any info on Tropical Cyclone Oli impacting Tahiti?
Tahiti and French Polynesia have been battered by something other than large southerly swells roaring up out of the South Pacific the past couple days: Tropical Cyclone Oli. TC Oli initially formed as Tropical Storm 7 near the Cook Islands on February 1st and then gradually strengthened into a Category 1 cyclone with 65 knot wind by early in the morning on February 3rd. Rapid intensification took place from Wednesday afternoon to early Thursday morning (local time), with TC Oli exploding from a Category 1 cyclone with 80 knot sustained wind to a category 4 storm with 155 knot sustained wind.
  Although Oli is now located about 480 miles south of Tahiti, and gradually weakening as he heads toward the Austral Islands, heavy rain and winds in excess of 100 knots were experienced on Tahiti as it passed roughly 150 miles west of the island as a category four storm on Thursday, February 4th. A large west-northwest swell in excess of 20 feet also hammered the north and west facing shores of Tahiti and many of the other islands in the area.  Tropical cyclones impacting French Polynesia are quite rare, with the last major cyclone (category 3 or higher) being Cyclone Wasa in December of 1991. The El Nino fueled 1982-1983 time period saw an exceptional number of tropical cyclones affect the region, including Category 3 cyclones Nisha-Orama (Feb 83) and Veena (April 83) and Category 2 Cyclone Rewa (March 83). Be sure to keep an eye on Hurricanetrak to get all the latest updates on Oli.
Posted on 02/01/10 Todos Santos Big Wave Event Forecast Update: 2/23/10
Moderate size WNW swell Thur PM, conditions a bit suspect
Watching potential larger swell for Sun the 28th, although conditions may also be sketchy Looking pretty slow in the immediate term with just modest WNW swell mix Tue/Wed. New WNW swell builds and peaks over the afternoon on Thursday but that will be below the contest size threshold and mainly in the 8' range (15' faces, with a few sets up to maybe 20' on the face, at best). Conditions Thursday afternoon/evening, as the swell peaks, also look less than ideal with 10-15kt+ NW wind. We will be watching a potentially larger NW swell for late in the weekend, which is looking strongest for Todos Santos on Sunday the 28th at this point. If the storm behaves as currently forecast, a 12'+ deepwater swell (20-25' faces) looks possible on Sunday, although conditions will need to be watched closely as a front will be moving through the area at roughly the same time and may set up unfavorable wind. The storm is forecast to be strongest 1200-1500 miles northwest of Todos Santos later this week, on Thursday, so we'll have a more concrete idea of the size/timing of the swell by that point, as well as an improved handle on conditions. We'll keep everyone up to speed with at least quick updates over the next couple days too, if the storm/swell continues to look promising. -The Surfline Forecast Team Next update: Wednesday the 24th
Posted on 01/20/10 Volcom Pipeline Pro Forecast (updated 1.31.2010)
BRIEF OVERVIEW: Although the swell will be on the decline, Monday morning will still offer plenty of good waves and clean conditions for the finals!
(Hawaiian Scale) MONDAY 1st SWELL/SURF: Fading NW swell provides 4-6'+ sets in the morning at Pipe (8-12'+ faces), strongest early. Look for clean/glassy conditions for the morning. WIND/CONDITIONS: Calm to very light SE wind in the morning. Then light to moderate SW-West Kona winds rise up over the afternoon, staying under 10kts. TUESDAY 2nd SWELL/SURF: Old NW energy lingers as a new NW fills in late. Pipe continues to produce surf in the 3-4' range (head high to a few feet overhead). Surface texture and bump, getting worse into the afternoon. WIND/CONDITIONS: Light-moderate SW-West winds in the morning, becoming breezy from the West into the afternoon. Front moving through over the afternoon/night. WEDNESDAY 3rd SWELL/SURF: New NW swell fills in further over the morning and peaks by the afternoon with 6-9'+ Pipe. Poor, mixed-up conditions expected. WIND/CONDITIONS: Breezy North veering NE winds through the day. THURSDAY 4th SWELL/SURF: NW swell holds fairly steady through the day with 6-8' Pipe. Conditions better, but still not favorable with breezy sideshore flow. WIND/CONDITIONS: Breezy NE winds. FRIDAY 5th SWELL/SURF: Fading NW swell provides 4-6'+ sets in the morning at Pipe, strongest early. Look for conditions to clean up with offshore easterly Trades. WIND/CONDITIONS: Breezy ENE-East Trades, possibly decreasing through the day. DISCUSSION & LONG RANGE FORECAST WEATHER/WIND A weak approaching front nears the Islands on Monday and stalls into Tuesday. Look for calm to very light SE winds Monday morning, becoming light to moderate and clocking SW-West over the afternoon. On Tuesday, moderate westerly flow will gradually become breezy through the day as the stalled front strengthens and pushes through the Islands. At this time, the front is expected to pass through over Tuesday afternoon/evening with strong high pressure building into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Wednesday will see breezy North winds veer NE through the day and continue through Thursday. By Friday and into the weekend, Easterly trades prevail and gradually decrease. SWELL/SURF(Hawaiian Scale) The current NW swell (310-330) will gradually fade tonight and through Monday. Monday morning still offers 4-6'+ sets at Pipe (8-12'+ faces) with clean/glassy conditions. By Tuesday, the surf eases even more, but hangs fairly steady in the 3-4' range (head high to 2-3' overhead). A new storm of the Northwest Pacific developed a good fetch for Hawaii off the Kamchatka Peninsula recently and should remain intact over the next day or so, gradually moving into the central NPAC and pushing toward the Islands. As a result, we're expecting a run of more solid NW swell (310-325 shifting 325-350) to fill in late Tuesday afternoon/night and peak around mid-day on Wednesday. This swell will then hold fairly steady into Thursday before slowly easing into the weekend. This swell is looking very similar in size to today's swell with plenty of well overhead surf on the North Shore Wednesday through Friday (Feb 3rd-5th). Pipe producing 6-9'+ sets Wed/Thurs. However, wind conditions don't look good until Friday. Next update: Monday evening, February 1st -The Surfline Forecast Team
Posted on 12/18/09 SoCal Swell Review: Dec 9-10 WNW swell
As many of our premium subscribers know, the swell that affected Southern California on Wednesday, December 9th and Thursday, December 10th was a selective one; due to the very long period and initially more 'northerly' swell angle (290-300) it focused highly in specific areas, while leaving other areas in a swell void and seeing much smaller surf.
These types of swells present a dilemma for our forecast team: how to effectively communicate that some regions will be going off, while others will be significantly smaller, without acting like traffic cops and directing people to a specific break (we were actually much more detailed than normal in the forecast, due mainly to extreme differences in size up and down the coast). So, starting with this past swell, we're going to occasionally blog on these unique types of swell events, in the hopes that we can educate our user base on where and when to score on similar swells in the future, and also offer those who are not premium members a glimpse into the written forecast information that you would have access to each and every day as a Surfline member. Kind of like an addendum to these Swell Stories, but with actual archived forecast data included, and even a little self critique when necessary. The feedback we received from you, our users, following the completion of the Dec 9th-10th swell was a mixed bag. While a couple users told us that we nailed it in the areas they checked/surfed, there were others who were pissed and claimed we over called the swell. After examining the buoy data, receiving reports up and down the coast, and surfing ourselves, we think both factions were actually right. If you were surfing at one of those long period breaks that really focused the swell on Wednesday, you scored solid and building waves through the day. However, Thursday and Friday didn't materialize quite as large as we hoped, especially from our early predictions from the weekend when the storm/swell was developing (we brought the numbers down a bit in the subsequent days). To give you an idea of what we were forecasting, have a look at the long range written forecast that we issued from the weekend before the swell, on Saturday the 5th, here. To summarize that forecast: A very long period NW swell (290-300 degrees) would be building on Wednesday, December 9th, focusing highly in areas like parts of Southern Ventura, select breaks of the South Bay, extreme North Orange County and South San Diego. Those breaks were expected to see surf running anywhere from solidy overhead up to double overhead+. Many other spots would be left in somewhat of a swell void, with the longer period swell focusing elsewhere and being 'stolen' away. Those regions included much of Santa Barbara, North LA County, Orange County (from the HB Pier down through South OC) and much of North San Diego County. While some fun waves were expected in some of those areas on Wednesday, more size would be showing on Thursday and into Friday (the 10th-11th) as the swell came down in period a bit, and also from a more westerly angle (280-300 degrees). Below are several nearshore model graphics showing the difference in swell size throughout the region on the different swell periods/directions, archived nearshore model graphics to help further illustrate this forecast, as well as some photos from some of those hot spots on Wednesday. The below image displays the swell heights that will reach the Southern California shoreline after shadowing (by both Pt. Conception and the offshore islands) and the offshore bathymetry takes effect. This is for a 290 degree swell at 20 second swell period, which is what we saw on Wednesday, December 5th. Notice how highly focused it is in certain areas (indicated by red bars), while other regions can be much smaller (indicated by blue bars). Spots that are in between are represented in yellow.  Same set up as the above image, but with swell direction of 285 and swell period of 15 seconds. Notice how the swell is able to 'spread out' a little more and offer a little more size for more areas. Hot spots are still indicated by red lines, medium spots in yellow and cold spots remain in blue.  The following three images are from our archived LOLA nearshore model. They show some hot spots as this swell intially filled in (Ventura, extreme North OC) and some not so hot spots (Santa Barbara, HB Pier and Newport), although they got more size on Thur/Fri as the swell period came down and swell direction also became more westerly.    Somewhere in Orange County on Wednesday, December 9th. 
Posted on 12/07/09 So how does this weeks upcoming swell compare to the macker swells of Dec 2005 and Dec 2007?
-Nate Hey Nate-
This will be a very different swell from each of the past, very large early December swells. Overall this upcoming, December 2009 swell will be quite a bit smaller (although still sizeable), less 'westerly' in direction, but longer lasting than the Dec 2007 event and especially the Dec 2005 swell event. The reasons why are detailed below: -Position of the storms: The 2005 and 2007 storms were located very close to the California coast, roughly 1000-1200 miles offshore, and also at very southerly latitudes. This allowed for very westerly surf (270-300 for the 2007 swell and 260-290 for the 2005 swell) that was able to filter into all the nooks and crannies of Southern California. Consistency was also high, as the swell had very little distance to decay before impacting Southern California. -Also, with the close proximity of the 2005 and 2007 storms, all of the resulting swell periods (13-20 seconds) hit the coast within a few hours of each other, which further helped consistency and allowed more of the coast to see surf (different breaks come alive on different swell periods, much like they do with different swell directions). This also caused the 2005 and 2007 swells to be primarily one day events; rising and dropping sharply over a 24-30 hour time period. I've heard my boss Sean Collins compare these types of swell to a 'shotgun blast', with all the swell directions and swell periods arriving very close to each other. -The swell for later this week is coming from a storm that is much further away, around 2500 miles when it was strongest (compare charts from the Dec 2007 and Dec 2009 events below). It also didn't drop quite as far south, with the resulting swell being more northwest in direction; initially building in at 290-295 degrees on Wednesday the 9th and then shifting more to the west-northwest (280-295) on Thursday and Friday the 10th-11th. So with the more NW/WNW swell, you won't see all the nooks and crannies of Southern California come to life as much (but still some fun waves, even at the S/SW facing breaks). -Furthermore, with the most recent storm being much further away, the differing swell period bands will be able to space out more (long period swells move faster than shorter period swells), with the long period swell of 17-20+ seconds arriving about a day ahead of the medium period stuff in the 14-16 second range. This long period swell will build through the day on Wednesday out of the northwest direction (290-295) and act more like a laser beam than a shotgun blast (another excellent 'Collinsism'), focusing highly at the breaks that really favor the long period energy, while leaving many other spots in a swell void and much smaller. There will literally be stretches of beach where it will go from double overhead to shoulder high or less within a couple miles. We've detailed the hot and cold spots for Wednesday in our Premium Edition Southern California Forecast and be sure to also check out the Nearshore Model as well. By Thursday and Friday we'll see more of the WNW'erly, mid period swell fill in (280-295 at 14-17 seconds), which will help spread things out quite a bit more throughout Southern California. So, if you know where to look, you can get two full days of solid surf on Wednesday and Thursday and even pretty good size surf into Friday (just watch out for the increasing S/SE wind by Thursday afternoon as the next front approaches Southern California!). Hope that answers your question and good luck scoring waves! Kevin Wallis Surfline Forecaster The low pressure systems (L) that created the swells for December 2007 (top) and December 2009 (bottom). Notice how much closer and also slightly further south the December 2007 storm is. This allowed for a larger and more westerly swell than we'll see later this week.  
Posted on 12/04/09 BILLABONG PRO MAUI FORECAST Wednesday Morning 12/09/2009
BRIEF OVERVIEW: Strong surf will continue for Honolua on Wednesday, before fading through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Wind conditions will remain favorable through the end of the week as well.
WEDNESDAY 9th SWELL/SURF: NW swell remains solid, gradually backing down. Honolua will see 10-12'+ faces Wednesday, with larger waves up to 15'+ at times. Clean conditions. WIND/CONDITIONS: Light/variable easterly wind. THURSDAY 10th SWELL/SURF: Smaller/fading NW swell with 5-8' faces in the morning. Decrease in size through the day. Clean conditions. WIND/CONDITIONS: Very light E/ENE wind. FRIDAY 11th SWELL/SURF: Smaller/fading surf with 3-5' faces early. New WNW swell starts to gradually build for the late afternoon/evening but is really too west to wrap much more than small surf into the bay and the overall trend is a fading one. WIND/CONDITIONS: Building and moderate E/ENE trades as high pressure moves in from the west. SATURDAY 12th SWELL/SURF: Small WNW swell wrap around shoulder high. WIND/CONDITIONS: Light ESE/SE wind through most of the day. Possible shift to S/SSW flow after dark. SUNDAY 13th SWELL/SURF: Fading and very small WNW swell wrap. WIND/CONDITIONS: Possible very light wind shifting W/NW/N through the day. DISCUSSION & LONG RANGE FORECAST A front will pass well to the north of Hawaii Wed/Thurs, with a weak pressure gradient taking shape over the Islands. Light/variable easterly wind will prevail, with the possibility of a sea breeze developing in the afternoon on Wednesday. High pressure will then briefly strengthen over the state on Friday, setting up a temporary increase in East Trades to moderate levels. By the weekend, the next front will be approaching the region although it looks to remain well north of the islands. At this point, good wind continue through Saturday, with light to moderate wind out of the ESE/SE. As the front passes to the north, Sunday will bring wind shifting from the W>NW through the day, although it looks very light right now (really light/variable W/NW). By Monday, gentle ENE flow looks likely to return. Conditions Saturday through Monday will depend on the behavior/timing of the approaching front, so stay tuned. The huge surf that has been slamming the Hawaiian Islands the past couple days will be easing in size on Wednesday and also turning a slight more NW/NNW direction. Surf size will remain strong at Honolua on Wednesday in the 10-12' range on the face, with some larger bombs up to 15' at times. Fading and smaller surf will prevail Thursday, with a decreasing trend continuing on Friday. Going a little further out; we're watching another storm that is centered about 1500 miles northwest of Hawaii this morning. Unfortunately, the swell resulting from this storm will be from a very westerly direction at 300-315 deg, and will be largely blocked from Honolua by Molokai. Overall, we're expecting only minor swell to wrap in starting late Friday and best on Saturday around shoulder high, with a fading trend continuing from earlier in the week through the weekend. Beyond that, long range charts indicate we could see a slightly more northerly swell for around Monday-Tuesday the 14th and 15th that will offer larger surf than the swell for Saturday. We'll have further details on this in the next few days. Next update: Thursday morning, December 10th -The Surfline Forecast Team 
Let us know what you're thinking about at forecasters@surfline.com. Thanks for your support! |
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