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HOPE FOR THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL SEASON
A factual look at the 2009 East Coast tropical season - Part 1
By:
Mike Watson
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The allure of the Atlantic hurricane season
has always carried this misconstrued notion of plentiful epic swells along the eastern and Gulf coast states. While it certainly can get epic - and it surely has, these mythic swells are really few and far between.
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like never before in our short history on this planet, media hyperbole has certainly played a significant role. Plus we have been in a multi decadal phase of enhanced tropical activity which has produced two excellent seasons, 1995 and 2008 along with several fairly decent swells during this 1995-2008 stretch. But what else drives this unending fascination with what arguably is a fickle surf season? After two and a half decades of tracking, studying, predicting and lastly, surfing the resultant swells from these systems, I think it can mostly be summed up in one word - Hope. Surfers wait all summer long, hoping that the summer flatness will finally be broken, hoping for that blob of clouds to turn into a solid tropical system, hope that the storm is then in the swell window, hope the local winds are light or offshore to greet the swell, and on and on... This emotive state is really what has driven us collectively as a species since our very beginning - hope of an arbitrary event happening that will elevate us - even if only so slightly - to a better circumstance than that we just inhabited a moment ago. Hell, even the seal of the state of Rhode Island contains the word "Hope" prominently displayed over the stock of an anchor. Perception is reality. But science is science and facts are facts. So my goal with this multi part series is to bring you facts regarding our Atlantic hurricane season. This surely will not be an exhaustive list but it will give you some ground truths from which to work with when approaching and moving through the season. This is not to diminish our collective hope, but to give a logical outlook on that which makes up our Atlantic hurricane season. "...[Hope] is really what has driven us collectively as a species since our very beginning - hope of an arbitrary event happening that will elevate us...to a better circumstance than that we just inhabited a moment ago."
Once June 1st rolls around the question is - 'Ok, where the hell are the storms?' We generally get some sort of disturbance but we rarely get a named storm during June. In fact we average one named system every two years in June. July is also a quiet time and we average, almost the same as June, 0.6 named storms per year during this month. The number of hurricanes in June and July are 0.2 and 0.3 respectively. When we are looking for storm development during June or July, we focus on the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. We rarely get a system that forms over the Atlantic waters during these months. Early August is still a very quiet time. But as we approach the middle of the month we begin to transition to a more active period. Easterly waves are periodically pushing off of the African coast and making their way across the basin. Most of the activity is towards the end of the month; storm genesis regions spread out and we need to scan a larger portion of the ocean for development potential. August, on average, produces 2.2 named systems per month and 1.4 hurricanes. By September we are in the wheelhouse of the tropical season. The Cape Verde season is well underway and we reach our climatological peak around the 9th-10th. Again we need to monitor a large portion of the ocean for storm genesis. September averages 3 named storms and 2 hurricanes per year. Much of this average comes from the first 2 weeks of the month. October is when things are beginning to slow down. The Cape Verde season had ended and fall begins to really be felt. We begin to look more towards the central and West Atlantic for tropical cyclone generation. We also have to monitor the tail end of frontal boundaries that are beginning to dip further south - these scenarios can sometimes spin up a surface low that can develop into a tropical system. This month averages 1.8 named storms and 1.0 hurricane. This can be quite a dangerous month as the systems form close to home with plenty of heat potential in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to support a major hurricane. November ushers in the end of the season and at this point we are more focused on Northeasters for swell generation than tropical cyclones. However we still need to keep a wary eye for any development but by the end of the month, the tropical season is over. This month produces, on average, 0.4 named storms and 0.2 hurricanes. Already we are seeing abnormal weather patterns. We just had a Northeaster impact the East Coast and the tropics remain quiet for now. We have a developing situation that needs to be watched in the East Pacific - El Niño is forecast to develop. We will address this issue in our next installment and the potential ramifications to our season so stay tuned for our discussion on that. Until then sit back and relax because it may be a while until we see a swell producing tropical system. If something does pop up, you can track the storm and the swell with our ever improving, powerful Hurricanetrak chock full of tools. For now though, all we have is hope. MORE FORECAST SURFLINE HOME PAGE |
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Comments: (3) Add Your Comment
phillip heath 06/29/2009 12:28 PM
i have enjoyed every story that i have read. i am an east coast surfer(washout) so the peice on big guy short boards really opened my eyes about water dissplacement ,rocker, and volume. just wanted to say thanks!
mojosurfer 06/28/2009 07:46 AM
In another space and time before major media would even pay attention to the surf scene on the East Coast Much less the Gulf Coast there was all ready a strong group of storm chasers all though older now we still are on it Roy Leap was the Meteorologist of the time and would give detailed up to the min reports on all weather and storms he keep us informed and we scored because of his expertise granted things are better now but this is nothin new some of us have been in the trenches for 40+ yrs.
stick 06/27/2009 08:00 AM
all the pros need to just stay home this year, go surf world class waves somewhere else and let us locals normal people have our gems without all your cameras around
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