Search Surfology

GO

Meet The Forecasters

Surfline is proud to bring you a unmatched team of experts in the fields of meteorology, forecasting, science and surfing

Nicaragua ISA World Masters Surfing Championship - Official Surfline Forecast

The surf outlook for the ISA World Masters Surfing Championship at Playa Colorado, Nicaragua July 14th-22nd.

  • Published:07/16/12
  • Views:1,668
  • Comments:3
  • Share Article:

Update: Monday afternoon, July 16

Forecast Outlook for Playa Colorado (17th-22nd)

Brief Overview: Mainly fun sized southern hemi energy is expected for Nicaragua over the next few days. The S/SSW swell from the weekend will ease through midweek as a new small, but longer period SW swell gradually fills in. Minor W/WNW energy from Tropical Cyclone Fabio is also expected through the middle of the week. Stronger SW groundswell is lining up for the end of the event. Offshores are expected through most of the contest.

Daily Details

TUESDAY 17th
Swell/Surf: Fading S swell mixes with new small, but longer period SW swell and minor W energy to produce 3-4' (waist to chest high) surf with head high ranged sets during best tides.
Wind: ENE 5-13kts. Occasional higher gusts during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

WEDNESDAY 18th
Swell/Surf: Dominant SW groundswell mixes with small, underlying S and W swells to produce 3-5' (waist to head high) surf. Slightly overhead sets during best tides.
Wind: ENE 5-13kts. Occasional higher gusts during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

THURSDAY 19th
Swell/Surf: Dominant SW swell continues to produce 3-5' (waist-head high) surf. Slightly overhead sets during best tides.
Wind: ENE 9-16kts. Stronger gusts over the late morning/early afternoon hours possible, then easing late day.

FRIDAY 20th
Swell/Surf: Southern hemi mix in the 3-4' range (waist to chest high). Shoulder to head high sets during best tides.
Wind: ENE 7-15kts. Occasional higher gusts during the morning and early afternoon hours.

SATURDAY 21st
Swell/Surf: Rising SW swell with 4-5' (shoulder to head high) surf. 1-2' overhead sets developing late.
Wind: ENE 6-15kts.

SUNDAY 22nd
Swell/Surf: Stronger SW swell with 5-7' surf (head to 2' overhead). Developing well overhead sets (~8' faces) through the day, strongest late.
Wind: ENE 5-13kts.

Discussion:

Swell/Surf: We are expecting a mix of fading, short-mid period S (195-180) and rising, small but longer period SW (220-210) swell over the next several days. This leaves lots of waist-shoulder high surf for Tuesday through Thursday. Head to slightly overhead sets are expected during best tides, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Mainly small/fun sized southern hemi mix is expected to continue into Friday.

Further out, we are still expecting a stronger pulse of SW (220-205) swell to fill in as we move through the end of the weekend, thanks to a recent strong storm that pushed out from under New Zealand late last week. This swell looks good for head to overhead surf, with well overhead sets expected to develop during Sunday. Stay tuned as we continue to track this swell through the Pacific.

Wind/Weather: Primarily light to moderate offshore ENE winds are expected over the next several days, mostly in the 5-15kt zone except slightly stronger over Thursday and Friday. Occasional higher gusts are possible especially during the late morning and early afternoon afternoons before winds diminish a bit late in the day. While its hard to rule out a passing shower and thunderstorm this time of year in the tropics, current indications are that rain chances will remain fairly low with the offshore wind pattern that has been in place. As such, we expect rain chances to be in the 20-30% range through the period. Any showers that pop up will be capable of temporarily impacting winds and surf conditions.

Next Update: Friday the 20th

-Prepared by: Mark Willis and The Surfline Forecast Team



--------------------------------------------------------------------------


Update: Friday afternoon, July 13

Forecast Outlook for Playa Colorado (14th-22nd)

Brief Overview: Mainly fun sized southern hemi energy is expected for Nicaragua over the next several days. A slight increase in S/SSW swell is expected by the end of the weekend. This eases into next week as new small but long period SW groundswell moves in. Minor W/WNW swell from Tropical Cyclones Emilia and Fabio is expected for the next several days as well. Stronger SSW groundswell is lining up for the end of the event. Offshores are expected through most of the contest.

5 Day Forecast:

SATURDAY 14th:
Swell/Surf: Small S/SSW groundswell and minor W swell mix. Surf is 2-3-4' (thigh-chest high) with sets around shoulder to head high during favorable tides.
Wind: ENE 6-15kts. Occasional higher gusts during the morning and early afternoon hours.

SUNDAY 15th
Swell/Surf: S/SSW swell pulses up a touch while mixing with lingering small W energy. Surf is 4-5' (shoulder to head high) surf with 6' sets (1' overhead).
Wind: ENE 5-14kts.

MONDAY 16th
Swell/Surf: Mix of fading S/SSW swell and new, small but long period SW swell. Minor W energy from tropical sources continues. Surf is 3-5' (waist to head high). Sets slightly overhead during best tides.
Wind: ENE 7-16kts. Stronger gusts over the late morning/early afternoon hours possible, then easing late day.

Tuesday 17th
Swell/Surf: Easing S swell and rising small but long period SW groundswell. Surf is 3-5' (waist to head high). Slightly overhead sets especially late.
Wind: ENE 6-15kts. Occasional higher gusts during the morning and early afternoon hours.

WEDNESDAY 18th
Swell/Surf: Modest SW groundswell continues. Surf is 3-5' (waist to head high) with slightly overhead sets.
Wind: ENE 6-15kts. Occasional higher gusts during the morning and early afternoon hours.

Discussion:

SURF/SWELL OUTLOOK: We are still looking at mainly a modest mix of overlapping southern hemi swells over the next 24hrs or so. That leaves mainly thigh-waist-chest high surf into Saturday with a few slightly higher sets.

Beyond that, we are expecting a modest increase in surf heights by Sunday and into early/mid next week thanks to a couple of recent storms/fetches we were watching in the South Pacific. This will be a mix of S/SSW and SW swells from a variety of sources, though the primary energy is initially expected to be between 195-180 degrees thanks to a recent and fairly close proximity system in the SE Pacific. This bumps surf into the chest to head high range on Sunday with sets running a foot or so overhead. This swell eases a notch going into early next week, but its remains will mix with a couple of smaller but longer period, overlapping SW swells to keep surf in the waist-head high zone on average for next Monday through Thursday. Again, we expect some slightly overhead sets during favorable tides.

Further out, the above swells back off into next Friday July 20th leaving a bit smaller but still plenty rideable/fun surf then. However, we are currently watching a stronger storm move out from under New Zealand now. This storm has some strong gale to storm force winds aimed at Central America, and we also just got satellite confirmation that it is producing seas around 40 ft that LOLA is handling fairly well. This should lead to a stronger run of southern hemisphere swell starting next weekend and continuing into the following week after the contest ends (July 21-27). Please stay tuned as we continue to track these still active storms/swells. However, our confidence is increasing that we will see a bit stronger surf by the end of next weekend thanks to the confirmed storm under New Zealand now. This pulse looks to be focused in the 215-200 directional band with fairly high periods (16-20s). Given the very large decay distance it likely won't be a huge swell but should be the strongest of the contest. Please stay tuned as we iron out the details.

WIND/WEATHER - Primarily light to moderate offshore ENE winds are expected over the next several days, mostly in the 5-15kt zone. Occasional higher gusts are possible especially over the late morning and early afternoon afternoons before winds diminish a bit late in the day. While its hard to rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm this time of year in the tropics, current indications are that rain chances will be fairly low with the offshore wind pattern that has been in place. As such, we expect rain chances to be in the 20-30% range through the period. Any showers that pop up will be capable of temporarily impacting winds and location conditions.



Next Update: Monday the 16th

-Prepared by: Mark Willis and The Surfline Forecast Team

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Update: Monday afternoon, July 9

FORECAST OUTLOOK FOR Playa Colorado (14th-22nd)

Brief Overview: Mainly modest but contestable southern hemi energy expected for the beginning of the event. Possible stronger pulse towards the end of the event but too early for specifics. Conditions looking good with offshores at this point.

Forecast Outlook: After a fairly active early July, things have calmed down a bit recently in the South Pacific. As such, no significant swells are currently on the radar for the beginning to middle of the event.

However, we have been watching a handful of storms especially in the Southwest and South Central Pacific over the last several days. These storms have periodically had some high winds aimed at Nicaragua, but due to the very large distance the associated swells must travel, we do not expect this to lead to significant swell for the country. What it will do is produce plenty of 3-5' (waist to head high) surf with some slightly overhead sets mixing in at times over the weekend and into next week. This energy will primarily be spread out between 215-190 degrees though some small S swell (190-180) is also expected to mix in for the end of the weekend and into early next week, thanks to a separate system we are currently watching in the Southeast Pacific.

We are also tracking Hurricanes Daniel and Emilia in the East Pacific. Both of these storms are moving away from us which is unfavorable for sending swell to Central America. As such, we are only expecting a small amount of mid-period W swell from mainly Emilia for the beginning of the contest.

Finally, some of the computer models are pointing towards a more active storm track in the South Pacific later this week and into this weekend. If this pans out, we could see a bit stronger SSW swell towards the end of the event. However, we have very little confidence in this just yet so please stay tuned.

WIND/WEATHER - At this point, we're expecting primarily light to moderate 5-15kt offshore ENE winds and good conditions for Playa Colorado for the beginning of the event. While its hard to rule out a passing shower and thunderstorm this time of year in the tropics, current indications are that rain chances will be minimal with the offshore wind pattern that has been in place. However, weather in the tropics can change quickly this time of the year. More details on the swell, wind, and weather will be provided in our next update.



Next Update: Friday the 13th

-Prepared by: Mark Willis and The Surfline Forecast Team

Category: Special Event Forecasting
Comments: (3)    Add Your Comment
Dunc 07/13/2012 07:36 AM
I left July 1st. Think about how I feel. I was watching sick video online from July 4th. It has been a very inconsistent season.
Molica 07/11/2012 08:40 AM
The surf has been amazing at Popoyo! I hope the swell doesn't die too much before the comp. If the waves kept up I would definitely extend my stay. I recommend staying at hotel melting elefante
roger dodger 07/10/2012 03:11 PM   * PREMIUM MEMBER - Nickname
So much for Nicaragua being the best bet in July, well at least the middle of July. I am heading to the Popoyo region the 14th through the 20th and was hoping for solid overhead surf. Wish my trip had been at the beginning of the month. Mother nature is quite fickle.
Add Your Comment:
ABOUT SURFLINE'S COMMENTS: Surfline comments are intended to foster and continue a community discussion and/or debate on the topic brought up by the feature above. We encourage you to comment and express your opinion. Before commenting, you should know that Surfline Comments are moderated, which means that comments containing personal attacks, excessive profanity, or off-topic remarks may not be posted. Also, 'EDITOR'S PICKS' are comments that we feel capture points-of-view from all sides of the issue at hand, not necessarily the comments Surfline most agrees with. Thanks. --the editors
Name
Email Address (optional, will not be displayed)
Comment (limit 500 characters)
You have characters left.