HAPPY GROUNDHOG DAY | Sean Collins looks for his shadow -- six more weeks of winter?

Registered or Premium Member? LOG IN | Become a Member: TRY PREMIUM FREE

HAPPY GROUNDHOG DAY

Sean Collins looks for his shadow -- six more weeks of winter?

February 2, 2010

30785 visits | 11 comments

I think that most surfers in Hawaii and on the Pacific West Coast would all agree that we've had a great winter of waves. November and early December may have started out a little slow in some areas, but by mid December and January the gates opened with almost non-stop good swells. What makes this winter different than others and why is this one so much better than our recent past winters?

Sure, we are experiencing a moderate El Nino when warmer water temperatures can definitely enhance storm activity. But in the past we've also had poor swell years during moderate El Ninos and great swell years during strong La Ninas, so what is the controlling factor? It's HIGH PRESSURE.

Often ignored by surfers, high pressure systems are the "traffic cop" of storm tracks and the upper level jet streams, and force the flow to go around them like a big boulder in the middle of a river. High pressure systems contain cool, dry stable air masses that sink to the surface of the Earth. Strong high pressure systems also extend very high into the upper atmosphere and can virtually anchor themselves in place for months at a time. So if a very strong high pressure forms in the North Pacific and anchors itself above Hawaii and the West Coast, we're generally in for a pretty long spell of bad waves and this situation can totally ruin an entire season of waves.

"Hawaii should see another very significant major swell around Wednesday and Thursday the 10th and 11th, but conditions might be a little sketchy due to the closeness of the storm."

On the flip side, the lack of high pressure is generally very good because this would allow the jet streams and storm tracks to drop very low and closer to Hawaii and California resulting in more swell. And this is the situation we've enjoyed in the North Pacific during December and January of this season. And even though we don't want a big high pressure system blocking our storm track, we do like strong high pressure systems to follow behind the storms because they help to produce strong, consistent wind speeds in the back end of the storm, which generates larger swell.

Another important factor to remember, good strong storms that generate a lot of swell also like a large contrast in air temperatures. As the storm tracks move very cold air farther south over warmer waters (especially during an El Nino year), the warm air in the storm rises faster and more violently resulting in more instability, and stronger winds. And as a simple rule: stronger winds, over more duration of time, and extending over a longer fetch of ocean, will result in bigger waves and larger swells for us.

Currently we continue to have a very good "weak high pressure" situation in the North Pacific. After a great stretch of swell (and storminess) throughout the middle of January, the North Pacific experienced a lull in the storm action to close out the month. The reason why is that high pressure strengthened slightly in the western Pacific off Japan during the last week in January, and shut off the flow of tropical moisture feeding the instability of the storms. Much the same as choking off the fuel line in your car, the engine will begin to sputter due to lack of fuel.

But the good news is that the "tropical fuel line" near Japan has just reopened, we still have weak high pressure throughout the entire North Pacific, and we can look forward to a resurgence of storm activity over the next couple of weeks. The charts attached for February 7th - 9th display how this scenario will develop by the beginning of next week. We have cold air coming down off Siberia that will mix with the warm, tropical air coming up between Japan and Hawaii. The net affect will be the development of a very strong storm in the North Pacific with 50 knot winds and 40 foot+ seas.

Hawaii should see another very significant major swell around Wednesday and Thursday the 10th and 11th, but conditions might be a little sketchy due to the closeness of the storm. This storm should follow a very good track to also generate a good swell for California around Friday the 12th and the following weekend. And this could be a very significant major swell for California if the storm holds its strength over the top of Hawaii.

On the very long-range horizon throughout the end of February our storm track should stay open with lots of swell throughout the end of the month. Conditions may deteriorate during periods of storminess and variable winds, but if you plan it right you will be able to find good waves somewhere. March will likely NOT be a very good month as stronger high pressure systems will anchor down in the North Pacific. We may have a few leftover decent swells here and there in March, but most of the storm activity will be blocked by high pressure resulting in much smaller swell and very windy conditions in the outer waters.

And in California we'll watch water temperatures that may drop significantly due to upwelling from the winds during March and April. About that time we'll also be looking south to the Southern Hemisphere for our weekly "fix" of swell.

So your best bet right now? Catch up on work, school, family obligations, or whatever THIS WEEK so you can be on it for the bigger swells during the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February.

+++

For those who don't know, Punxsutawney Phil is America's most important furry little mammal. Every year on February 2nd, the groundhog emerges from his burrow in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, and if he sees his shadow, he'll return for six more weeks of winter. If not, springtime isn't far off. We figured Sean Collins was the closest thing surfers had to ole Phil...

MORE SURF NEWS
SURFLINE HOME PAGE

Comments: (11) Add Your Comment

Guilherme 02/03/2010 11:03 AM

Hello Sean Thanks for all the great info! I´m south in Chile, so, from what you´ve siad i should expect a great Fall season (April/May) downhere? Thanks!

Alan Reynolds 02/03/2010 09:26 AM

This 2009-10hasjust clean/clear/cloudless,Indian Summer>and I've surfed spots that rarely break,ie.HB.Box:Cars:Ventura Overhead,and other reefs,points,even River Jettiesthat's 1'when HB's 6-10'so I think 2010 will go down the our history books as the best in modern times.obtw-thanks surfline! in San Diego,and points in Santa Barbara,have had many days,on these

Matt Moore 02/02/2010 07:44 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name

East Coasters, listen up! (I used to be one, but now reside out west). Oceanography 101-the west coast has convergent weather (it sweeps in from the Pacific). Most of your weather is divergent(coming across the continent), unless it is a hurricane/NE'er. Either move out to So Cal and get super consistent, mediocre surf, or stay put and make us jealous during hurricane season. At least back east, you can afford to travel, out here travel money goes for everyday living expenses.

montaukradar 02/02/2010 06:53 PM

yeah seriously there's never any forecast information this indepth about anything to do with the east coast.. which is where a lot of us do surf... please hook us up!

editor reply:
Maybe you missed this? http://www.surfline.com/forecast/el-nio-atlantic-outlook--breaking-down-the-fall-winter-atlantic-season_31044/

Shaun 02/02/2010 05:31 PM

I went to Rincon, Puerto Rico the third week of March in 2008 and scored an epic swell.

Steve Lefkowitz 02/02/2010 05:09 PM

Sean, Thank you for your insight on our NPAC winter observations and forecasts during this wonderful El Nino SOCAL and Hawaii winter. How will this weather pattern impact this spring and summer southern hemis? Thank you, Steve

Sooze 02/02/2010 03:26 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Nickname

Sweet description for us thirsty surfers. I especially enjoyed the promising prognosis.

oaf 02/02/2010 02:21 PM

blacks was so heavy that day. I didnt have a gun but rather Dane Reynold's "proton" with major rocker. it wasnt the right board for how heavy it was. There were 13ft sets coming in around noon with steep drops.

Michael Jones 02/02/2010 11:35 AM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name

Phil and Sean do kinda look alike! Hehe ;) Thanks for all the great info, always insightful and interesting!

Michel Schnaas 02/02/2010 11:32 AM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name

Nice! Now I know when to go to Mexico City on business. Thanks Sean!

Ben 02/02/2010 11:08 AM

I love all of this information and the analogies used to explain weather patterns, but what about the Atlantic Ocean? I'm going to the North Coast of Puerto Rico in the 2nd week of March and was wondering what to expect. Thanks

Add Your Comment:

ABOUT SURFLINE'S COMMENTS: Surfline comments are intended to foster and continue a community discussion and/or debate on the topic brought up by the feature above. We encourage you to comment and express your opinion. Before commenting, you should know that Surfline Comments are moderated, which means that comments containing personal attacks, excessive profanity, or off-topic remarks may not be posted. Also, 'EDITOR'S PICKS' are comments that we feel capture points-of-view from all sides of the issue at hand, not necessarily the comments Surfline most agrees with. Thanks. --the editors