From Sean Collins and the Surfline Forecast Team : EFFECTIVE March 17, 2003
 
 
  Grinding to Life
INDIAN OCEAN - High pressure was the dominant feature in the South Indian Ocean and most of the storm energy was confined off of the Antarctic ice-shelf region but a few moderate SW ground swells managed to reach Indonesia and Western Australia during February. Tropical cyclone activity was starting to fire up in the Indian Ocean and most of the swell energy generated by these storms was directed towards the East coast of Madagascar.

SOUTH PACIFIC - Tahiti's north facing reefs continued to bring in more swell energy from the North Pacific, while the south facing reefs did not see much surf from the South Pacific. Fiji pulled in a handful of moderate SW ground swells that were generated under Australia and south of the Tasman Sea. Their north facing reefs had calmer conditions but a few head high plus NNW ground swells managed to give them a few days of workable surf.

CENTRAL AMERICA - The SPAC ground back to life during February and despite the presence of those frustrating ridges of high pressure it managed to kick up a couple of playful S to SW swells for Mexico and Central America. It wasn't as consistent or as big as it will get in the next few months but it was fun and we sure didn't hear any travelers complaining about scoring shoulder-overhead tropical waves in the middle of winter.

SOUTH ATLANTIC - The South Atlantic also had its share of high-pressure cells keeping the storm track in the higher latitudes. Small to moderate surf affected South Africa for most of the month, while a solid and double overhead plus WSW ground swell gave the Cape some fun waves during the middle of February. Brazil continued in its wave drought and very weak to flat conditions plagued the coast for most of the month.

EUROPE - The North Atlantic remained fairly active with storm activity in February, with consistent moderate strength cyclones pushing ENE through the North Atlantic towards the Norwegian Sea. The dominant weather pattern consisted of broad low pressure in the North Atlantic with high pressure just SW of Portugal. This led to several days of overhead W/WNW swell in Western Europe during February, with a few Double overhead + days in the mix as well. Expect the consistency of the larger, longer period W/WNW ground swells to decrease -- but with plenty of fun overhead days possible. Best conditions will be when high pressure builds over Ireland, the UK, and France.

CARIBBEAN - February consisted of several days of minor NW to NE background swells in the 2-3' range for the Leeward Islands, and typical 3-4' E/ENE trade swells at exposed breaks as well. Slight stronger 3-5' N pulses reached the area on 2/4-2/5 and on 2/15-2/16. These waves were produced by low-pressure areas that moved N/NE from the Mid Atlantic Coast and their interaction with rebuilding high pressure to the west. There is still the possibility for more moderate N swell to effect the region over the next 30 days but NW to NE swells above shoulder high will become less and less consistent.

--AW, KN, and MW


 
 
 
  Fall of the Southern Hemisphere
It's that time of year again and the Southern Hemisphere will start to gain strength as we head through the remainder of March and into April. Warm sub-equatorial waters will continue to spread into the southwest portions of the Indian, South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans and this will help to add some needed energy for early season storm activity. The Antarctic ice sheet is almost in full retreat due to summer temperatures and this will help to add more ocean surface for swell generation in the higher latitudes. Overall, you can expect larger and more consistent swell activity to affect Indonesia, Western Australia, Fiji, Tahiti, South America and South Africa as we head through March and into April. The North Pacific still has a few months of life and you can still look forward to some solid N/NW swells along the north facing reefs of the South Pacific islands into April and even the month of May.

INDIAN OCEAN - Heading into fall we will see renewed strength from the Southern Indian Ocean. Cyclones will be boosting in the high latitudes throughout the month and each one will work to supercharge colder frontal storms. Indo and the tropics will still see funky weather conditions as the Monsoon continues but there may be a little more long-period energy heading that way. Western Oz will still likely be the best place for waves. There will be bigger swells as fall storms intensify but it can still count on being a little more protected from monsoonal flow and all but the most extreme tropical storms.

SOUTH PACIFIC - This region is starting to come back alive. We have tropical storms and cyclones near New Zealand/Australia that will do their best to break down high-pressure over the mid-latitudes allowing more vertical movement in the storm activity around Antarctica. This movement, as apposed to the zonal flow, will push more swell to exposed islands and we can expect more size as we head to summer.

SOUTH ATLANTIC - The south Atlantic is gearing up once again for fall. Storms are getting stronger as they move out from South America and with the high next to Brazil starting to get a little shaky we can expect storms of have more latitude movement. With more active and larger storms expect wave heights to be on the rise through the month. South Africa will again be the best place for waves in this region since most of the storms will be strengthening after they push out from under South America. Brazil and Argentina have a better shot of getting quality waves than last month but high pressure near the coast will continue to be a problem.

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA - With the SPAC starting to generate stronger storms we can expect much more swell coming this way. While not known as a super-active SPAC month March has been able to produce some very fun and clean, thanks to the dry season, S to SW swells for the region. Overall expect mostly playful sized surf with bigger wave heights starting to become more consistent by the end of the month as we get closer to summer.

--AW and KN

 
 
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