Surfline • Wavetraks Newsletter March 17, 2003



		From Sean Collins and the Surfline Forecast Team : EFFECTIVE March 17, 2003


	NORTHEAST (Maine ~ Virginia) -- Colder Than A Witch's... February started off pretty good as an area of low pressure pushed off DELMARVA towards the Canadian Maritimes and strong high pressure dominated the North/Central Atlantic. This set up 3-4'+ ENE/ESE swells for many breaks in the area on the 1st, while breaks from Cape Cod north cleaned up on the 2nd. Prefrontal S swell produced 3-4'+ surf for the area on the 4th and 5th. South-facing breaks had a few days of moderate short period SW/W wind swell from high pressure to our south/low pressure to our north from the 9th-13th. Without question though, the President's Day storm was the most significant surf/weather event of the month -- if not the entire winter. Several spots had 4-6'++ surf in wake of this system on 18th and 19th -- as well as a hell of a lot of snow on the ground. Another strong low/frontal system moved into New England on Sunday the 23rd, which produced more 4-6' S/SW swells at top exposures. The month ended with waist to shoulder + ENE windswell picking up in the Mid Atlantic region, as a surface low was pushing off Virginia. The NE gets an improved 6.5/10 for February. --Mark Willis
	SOUTHEAST (Georgia ~ the Outer Banks) -- Situation Normal The Outer Banks in particular started the month of February off with fun 3-4' E mix swells with offshores as low pressure pushed NE from DELMARVA. S/SW flow ahead of a strong frontal system set up 3-4'+ S/SW swells to top exposures on the 4th and 5th. Another winter stormed move off the Mid Atlantic Coast on Friday the 7th that led to cleaned up 2-4' surf for the Carolinas. S/SW flow ahead of the President's Day storm set up moderate 3-4'+ wind waves at south exposed breaks esp. the weekend of the 15th and 16th. Solid 4-6'+ NE/ENE ground swell created by this storm reached the Outer Banks on the 17th and 18th. This only slowly faded through the 21st with fairly clean conditions. A strong area of low pressure moved into New England on Sunday the 23rd with an associated cold front nearing the SE US. This led to solid chest to head high+ S/SW wind swell at top south facing breaks. 3-5' NE wind swell was picking up at the end of the month as a new low moved through VA/NC from the SW. The SE gets a 4.5/10 for the month. --MW
	FLORIDA -- Holding Pattern Florida had a handful of typical quasi-playful 2-3' days during February, and several of those days the standout breaks had some chest high sets. However, we did not see much in the way of solid swell from any direction. The President's Day storm that pushed off the Mid Atlantic Coast sent us a small NE ground swell on the 18th and 19th, but most of the swell energy associated with this system was focused on beaches from Hatteras north. Several North and Central Florida beaches had small but rideable 2-3'+ (up to chest for top breaks) mix of NE/ESE swells from the 23rd-27th. Conditions were best, as offshore flow developed ahead of frontal systems. Onshores created bumpy conditions as high pressure build to our north behind fronts. Unfortunately, breaks south of the Treasure Coast had very little rideable surf during the month. The West Coast of FL had a few rideable days, the strongest on the 23rd with 3-5' WNW ground swell at top breaks. Florida gets a 3.5/10 for February. --MW

	Omega Blocking? Maybe you should see a Doctor about that? When spring starts to roll around, we usually think of the Northern Hemisphere Oceans becoming less active and the Southern Hemisphere oceans beginning to become more active with storm activity. A decreasing temperature gradient in our hemisphere yields a weaker jet stream circulation and thus less potent storm systems are typically the end result. However, don't jump the guns saying we are already going to enter the typical early summer flat spells just yet. The way I see it, the ingredients are still there for at least a couple of East Coast swell producing lows to push off the Mid Atlantic region over the next month or so. Those ingredients being warm, moist air from the S/SE and colder, dryer air from the N/NW. The regions most likely to have the greatest effects from these systems will be Hatteras through New Jersey and exposed Florida breaks in moderate + NE swell. The strength and positioning of the reinforcing high-pressure areas building behind these frontal systems will be a large player in the size of these swells. Ahead of these frontal systems, small to moderate SE/S/SW wind swells will pick up 3-4 times over the next 30 days as well at exposed beaches as well. There is also the possibility of a subtropical Gale developing in the open Atlantic during the upcoming shoulder season, which could produce moderate ground swells anywhere from the Treasure Coast of Florida through New England. A good precursor to this is an omega-blocking pattern setting up over the East Coast -- something we haven't seen in a while due to the persistent blocking pattern over the Pacific NW. While you count the days down to Hurricane Season (starts June 1), make those last snowboarding trips very soon before its too late. --MW
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