From Sean Collins and the Surfline Forecast Team : EFFECTIVE March 17, 2003
  NORTH PACIFIC FEBUARY 17-19th 2003
February was a pretty dismal month for storm activity. We saw a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure hanging over the eastern NPAC that severely tweaked the storm track and kept the biggest waves headed toward Alaska rather than the more surfable locations. Our storm of the month managed to fight off the power of the high for a brief couple of days and send a large swell, (but not that big compared to previous storm's of the month), towards Hawaii before it succumbed and was forced over the Aleutians. This storm did manage to produce 55-65 knots of wind but most of the fetch was aimed in the wrong direction and the best Hawaiian spots saw 15-20' faces. California eventually picked up some of this swell but was busy fighting off bad weather and the increase in waves went through mostly unnoticed with all the wind and the rain. --Adam Wright
 
 
 
  HAWAII -- Overhead and Glassy
The islands had a good run of surf in February. After an initial sloppy start from a close-proximity mid-latitude storm, conditions really began to clean up. As a near stationary high-pressure system built ENE of Hawaii, we saw a very stable weather pattern develop; storms would spin off of Japan/Siberia, strengthen in the WPAC, begin sending swell as they tracked towards the islands, and then get punted up into Alaska by the high. This pattern prevented us from getting very large swells but it did keep conditions very clean for the moderate sized waves we did have. Overall we had four distinctive swells that offered a good chunk of surfable days throughout the month with only a couple of noticeable lags. Hawaii gets a 7.5/10 this month -- consistently playful with clean conditions is damn hard to beat. --AW
 
  NORTHERN CALIFORNIA -- We Just Want To Forget
The beginning of the month, surf and weather-wise at least, began where January left off. Conditions were generally sunny with light wind and a modest series of WNW swells in the slightly overhead range at the good breaks. By around the 10th of the month, however, it appeared as if spring had been thrust upon us. A humble series of Western Pacific storms pushing through the second half of the month mustered enough energy to create mostly medium-period, head-high waves, with only a couple of days of double overhead surf at the standout breaks. Unfortunately, due to the position of the Eastern North Pacific high and some sneaky storms able to squeak around it, conditions were mostly less than ideal with plenty of days of onshore wind and some periods of rain. February 2003 is a surfing month that will likely be forgotten fairly soon. Overall rating: 5. --Kevin Wallis
 
  SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA -- Oh So That Was Winter
After a two-month party of surf in December and January, February was kind of like the hangover that followed. Sure, there were a couple of good days with surf in the overhead range with clean conditions at the good winter spots, but they were pretty few and far between. Storm production in the Western North Pacific stayed fairly weak and, thanks to blocking high pressure in the Eastern North Pacific, the storms that did were never able to get very close to the west coast for most of the month. The storms that did manage to squeak around the high were generally modest at best, but at least spawned some much needed rain. Of particular interest was a rare, clean, overhead S wind swell around the middle of the month, which looked deceptively like hurricane surf at the best exposed breaks. Unfortunately it was gone almost as soon as it arrived. Overall rating: 3. --KW
 
 
 
  And Here Comes Spring
A strong high-pressure system will return to dominate the Eastern North Pacific in March and April. The North Pacific storm track will meander from Japan through the mid latitudes before the track is pushed further north by the high pressure in the Eastern Pacific. This weather phenomenon is very typical for late March through April and signifies smaller west and northwest swells on the horizon.

For Hawaii, expect smaller west and northwest swells as the storms steadily weaken in intensity over the next month. The next 30-days Hawaii will also see more local wind as the east/northeasterly trades increase due to the close location of the stronger high pressure to the north. Watch for a few early Southern Hemisphere swells out of the south/southwest from increasing storm activity off New Zealand.

For the US West Coast, smaller west and northwest swells will creep in from storm activity off the Aleutians. A side effect of the high pressure in the Eastern Pacific will be a series of local northwest wind swells along the US West Coast of California and Baja. Unfortunately water temperatures are also likely to drop at least a few degrees everywhere after the windy days. Watch for early Southern Hemisphere swells beginning to filter in from increasing storm activity off New Zealand and Antarctica.

See ya out there, Sean...

 

 
 
 

NORTHEAST (Maine ~ Virginia) -- Colder Than A Witch's...
February started off pretty good as an area of low pressure pushed off DELMARVA towards the Canadian Maritimes and strong high pressure dominated the North/Central Atlantic. This set up 3-4'+ ENE/ESE swells for many breaks in the area on the 1st, while breaks from Cape Cod north cleaned up on the 2nd. Prefrontal S swell produced 3-4'+ surf for the area on the 4th and 5th. South-facing breaks had a few days of moderate short period SW/W wind swell from high pressure to our south/low pressure to our north from the 9th-13th. Without question though, the President's Day storm was the most significant surf/weather event of the month -- if not the entire winter. Several spots had 4-6'++ surf in wake of this system on 18th and 19th -- as well as a hell of a lot of snow on the ground. Another strong low/frontal system moved into New England on Sunday the 23rd, which produced more 4-6' S/SW swells at top exposures. The month ended with waist to shoulder + ENE windswell picking up in the Mid Atlantic region, as a surface low was pushing off Virginia. The NE gets an improved 6.5/10 for February. --Mark Willis

 
 

SOUTHEAST (Georgia ~ the Outer Banks) -- Situation Normal
The Outer Banks in particular started the month of February off with fun 3-4' E mix swells with offshores as low pressure pushed NE from DELMARVA. S/SW flow ahead of a strong frontal system set up 3-4'+ S/SW swells to top exposures on the 4th and 5th. Another winter stormed move off the Mid Atlantic Coast on Friday the 7th that led to cleaned up 2-4' surf for the Carolinas. S/SW flow ahead of the President's Day storm set up moderate 3-4'+ wind waves at south exposed breaks esp. the weekend of the 15th and 16th. Solid 4-6'+ NE/ENE ground swell created by this storm reached the Outer Banks on the 17th and 18th. This only slowly faded through the 21st with fairly clean conditions. A strong area of low pressure moved into New England on Sunday the 23rd with an associated cold front nearing the SE US. This led to solid chest to head high+ S/SW wind swell at top south facing breaks. 3-5' NE wind swell was picking up at the end of the month as a new low moved through VA/NC from the SW. The SE gets a 4.5/10 for the month. --MW

 
 

FLORIDA -- Holding Pattern
Florida had a handful of typical quasi-playful 2-3' days during February, and several of those days the standout breaks had some chest high sets. However, we did not see much in the way of solid swell from any direction. The President's Day storm that pushed off the Mid Atlantic Coast sent us a small NE ground swell on the 18th and 19th, but most of the swell energy associated with this system was focused on beaches from Hatteras north. Several North and Central Florida beaches had small but rideable 2-3'+ (up to chest for top breaks) mix of NE/ESE swells from the 23rd-27th. Conditions were best, as offshore flow developed ahead of frontal systems. Onshores created bumpy conditions as high pressure build to our north behind fronts. Unfortunately, breaks south of the Treasure Coast had very little rideable surf during the month. The West Coast of FL had a few rideable days, the strongest on the 23rd with 3-5' WNW ground swell at top breaks. Florida gets a 3.5/10 for February. --MW

 
 
 
  Omega Blocking? Maybe you should see a Doctor about that?
When spring starts to roll around, we usually think of the Northern Hemisphere Oceans becoming less active and the Southern Hemisphere oceans beginning to become more active with storm activity. A decreasing temperature gradient in our hemisphere yields a weaker jet stream circulation and thus less potent storm systems are typically the end result. However, don't jump the guns saying we are already going to enter the typical early summer flat spells just yet.

The way I see it, the ingredients are still there for at least a couple of East Coast swell producing lows to push off the Mid Atlantic region over the next month or so. Those ingredients being warm, moist air from the S/SE and colder, dryer air from the N/NW. The regions most likely to have the greatest effects from these systems will be Hatteras through New Jersey and exposed Florida breaks in moderate + NE swell. The strength and positioning of the reinforcing high-pressure areas building behind these frontal systems will be a large player in the size of these swells. Ahead of these frontal systems, small to moderate SE/S/SW wind swells will pick up 3-4 times over the next 30 days as well at exposed beaches as well.

There is also the possibility of a subtropical Gale developing in the open Atlantic during the upcoming shoulder season, which could produce moderate ground swells anywhere from the Treasure Coast of Florida through New England. A good precursor to this is an omega-blocking pattern setting up over the East Coast -- something we haven't seen in a while due to the persistent blocking pattern over the Pacific NW. While you count the days down to Hurricane Season (starts June 1), make those last snowboarding trips very soon before its too late. --MW

 

 
 
  Grinding to Life
INDIAN OCEAN - High pressure was the dominant feature in the South Indian Ocean and most of the storm energy was confined off of the Antarctic ice-shelf region but a few moderate SW ground swells managed to reach Indonesia and Western Australia during February. Tropical cyclone activity was starting to fire up in the Indian Ocean and most of the swell energy generated by these storms was directed towards the East coast of Madagascar.

SOUTH PACIFIC - Tahiti's north facing reefs continued to bring in more swell energy from the North Pacific, while the south facing reefs did not see much surf from the South Pacific. Fiji pulled in a handful of moderate SW ground swells that were generated under Australia and south of the Tasman Sea. Their north facing reefs had calmer conditions but a few head high plus NNW ground swells managed to give them a few days of workable surf.

CENTRAL AMERICA - The SPAC ground back to life during February and despite the presence of those frustrating ridges of high pressure it managed to kick up a couple of playful S to SW swells for Mexico and Central America. It wasn't as consistent or as big as it will get in the next few months but it was fun and we sure didn't hear any travelers complaining about scoring shoulder-overhead tropical waves in the middle of winter.

SOUTH ATLANTIC - The South Atlantic also had its share of high-pressure cells keeping the storm track in the higher latitudes. Small to moderate surf affected South Africa for most of the month, while a solid and double overhead plus WSW ground swell gave the Cape some fun waves during the middle of February. Brazil continued in its wave drought and very weak to flat conditions plagued the coast for most of the month.

EUROPE - The North Atlantic remained fairly active with storm activity in February, with consistent moderate strength cyclones pushing ENE through the North Atlantic towards the Norwegian Sea. The dominant weather pattern consisted of broad low pressure in the North Atlantic with high pressure just SW of Portugal. This led to several days of overhead W/WNW swell in Western Europe during February, with a few Double overhead + days in the mix as well. Expect the consistency of the larger, longer period W/WNW ground swells to decrease -- but with plenty of fun overhead days possible. Best conditions will be when high pressure builds over Ireland, the UK, and France.

CARIBBEAN - February consisted of several days of minor NW to NE background swells in the 2-3' range for the Leeward Islands, and typical 3-4' E/ENE trade swells at exposed breaks as well. Slight stronger 3-5' N pulses reached the area on 2/4-2/5 and on 2/15-2/16. These waves were produced by low-pressure areas that moved N/NE from the Mid Atlantic Coast and their interaction with rebuilding high pressure to the west. There is still the possibility for more moderate N swell to effect the region over the next 30 days but NW to NE swells above shoulder high will become less and less consistent.

--AW, KN, and MW

 
 
 
  Fall of the Southern Hemisphere
It's that time of year again and the Southern Hemisphere will start to gain strength as we head through the remainder of March and into April. Warm sub-equatorial waters will continue to spread into the southwest portions of the Indian, South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans and this will help to add some needed energy for early season storm activity. The Antarctic ice sheet is almost in full retreat due to summer temperatures and this will help to add more ocean surface for swell generation in the higher latitudes. Overall, you can expect larger and more consistent swell activity to affect Indonesia, Western Australia, Fiji, Tahiti, South America and South Africa as we head through March and into April. The North Pacific still has a few months of life and you can still look forward to some solid N/NW swells along the north facing reefs of the South Pacific islands into April and even the month of May.

INDIAN OCEAN - Heading into fall we will see renewed strength from the Southern Indian Ocean. Cyclones will be boosting in the high latitudes throughout the month and each one will work to supercharge colder frontal storms. Indo and the tropics will still see funky weather conditions as the Monsoon continues but there may be a little more long-period energy heading that way. Western Oz will still likely be the best place for waves. There will be bigger swells as fall storms intensify but it can still count on being a little more protected from monsoonal flow and all but the most extreme tropical storms.

SOUTH PACIFIC - This region is starting to come back alive. We have tropical storms and cyclones near New Zealand/Australia that will do their best to break down high-pressure over the mid-latitudes allowing more vertical movement in the storm activity around Antarctica. This movement, as apposed to the zonal flow, will push more swell to exposed islands and we can expect more size as we head to summer.

SOUTH ATLANTIC - The south Atlantic is gearing up once again for fall. Storms are getting stronger as they move out from South America and with the high next to Brazil starting to get a little shaky we can expect storms of have more latitude movement. With more active and larger storms expect wave heights to be on the rise through the month. South Africa will again be the best place for waves in this region since most of the storms will be strengthening after they push out from under South America. Brazil and Argentina have a better shot of getting quality waves than last month but high pressure near the coast will continue to be a problem.

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA - With the SPAC starting to generate stronger storms we can expect much more swell coming this way. While not known as a super-active SPAC month March has been able to produce some very fun and clean, thanks to the dry season, S to SW swells for the region. Overall expect mostly playful sized surf with bigger wave heights starting to become more consistent by the end of the month as we get closer to summer.

--AW and KN

 

 
 
  LOLA TIP#2 LOCAL ANIMATIONS
Local Forecast Animations are easily one of LOLA's best features. These animations combine forecast wave heights and tide charts for small, specific surf zones on the U.S. West Coast. Many spots and beach towns are labeled on the maps. You can easily use this model to locate where the waves will be biggest along the coast, and where they won't be.

The Local Animation Model takes information from the Global Model and adjusts the deep-water swell heights as the waves filter through offshore islands and wrap around points of land. It also shows the effects of refraction as the swells begin to shoal over shallower water like the continental shelf. Swell direction and swell period play a huge role in the process and the animation takes them both into account anticipating how an incoming swell will behave as it starts to feel the sea-floor.

As of right now California is the only finished region but will be adding many more Local Swell Model regions soon including Hawaii and the East Coast.

Click here for more details.

 

 
 
  CALIFORNIA: For anyone that was worried about the fate of the California Coastal Commission, the State's only coastal watchdog agency that was under threat last month -- breathe easy. February saw Governor Gray Davis sign legislation that sets the term of office for legislative appointees to the CCC to four-year terms, thereby allowing the agency's continued existence. Whew.

FLORIDA: A bunch of invasive, coral-smothering seaweed has spread across the reefs along the south Florida coast. Recent reports from divers and fisherfolks show that the seaweed was so thick on reefs in Florida's Palm Beach County in February that it is forcing lobsters and fish away. Click here for the whole story.

NEW JERSEY: Local Asbury Park surfers understandably want their beach open for surfing year round. But rather than sitting around complaining about it, they go busy and started a petition to send to those in charge, stressing the economic and social benefits of a surfing beach. Click right here to sign on.

MEXICO: Mainland Mexico has long been a dreamland of warmwater tubes, but it looks like years of overdevelopment and underplanning may be taking a toll, especially on places like Zihuatanejo -- many beaches are flunking the pollution test. Click here for the whole story.

FRANCE: The Oil spill from Prestige continues to foul southwest France and northwest Spain, even seeping into the southern UK. It has become one of Western Europe's worst environmental disasters, as beaches remain closed and storms continue to swirl the muck around. Click here for an interview with Surfrider Europe's Jacques Beall.

 

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