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EL NIÑO PACIFIC OUTLOOK
Breaking down the fall/winter Pacific season
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El Niño is back! The announcement officially came from NOAA in July
but it is only now that many surfers are becoming aware that we may be headed for a classic El Niño winter. [Click here for NOAA's 1/7/10 update.] We are breaking this into two parts - first the Pacific outlook followed by the Atlantic outlook. So first let's examine - just what is El Niño?
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The exact mechanism that triggers an El Niño event is unknown. We do know that persistent trade winds blowing across the Pacific pile up water towards the western portion of the basin. These trade winds relax which sets off what is known as a Kelvin wave. This sounds all fancy but in reality a Kelvin wave is nothing more than a low amplitude, very fast moving wave. The Kelvin wave travels across the Pacific along the equator towards the eastern portion of the Pacific basin where it then travels southward along the coast in the southern hemisphere and northward along the coast in the northern hemisphere. This Kelvin wave brings in the warmer waters which act to suppress upwelling of the cool, nutrient rich waters off of South America resulting in a deeper thermocline and thus warmer than normal sea surface temperatures. The effects of El Niño are far reaching and the impacts are felt globally. In the Pacific we generally see a more active tropical season while in the Atlantic we see a less active season. But as we head into the fall and winter season we really begin to see more impacts from El Niño. El Niño results in an amplified weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean which in turn gives us more frequent systems coming down the pipe. Not only do we see more frequent systems but El Niño can actually influence these storms potentially resulting in stronger Pacific storms and stronger storms potentially equals stronger swell. "...the North Pacific should certainly expect a stronger swell season during Fall and Winter 2009-2010 due to the increasing El Niño influence." - Sean Collins
"Aside from the obvious warmer water off tropical Mexico, another area to point out is that orange blob of warmer water between Hawaii and California that will influence the Eastern Pacific storms with more warm air resulting in increased wind speeds, swell, and possible rain. That area is pretty warm at about +2-4 degrees F above normal. Also note that +3-5 degree F orange blob off Japan between 160-180 degrees that was pushed up there by Typhoon Vamco in late August. And we also just observed Super Typhoon Choi Wan pushing up even more warm water to that same area. That whole region of warmer water in the Northwest Pacific could super charge a cold front coming off Siberia, resulting in a major swell blow up for Hawaii and the Pacific West Coast in October. Kind of like flicking burning matchsticks in between a few open gas cans. One is very likely to catch and blow up." The jury is still out on the precise strength or magnitude of this event. Looking at the historical Oceanic Niño Index which is calculate using a three month running mean, we can compare years in which El Niño really made an impact. One of the most famous years was the winter of 1982-83 and comparing the trend leading to that event and the current El Niño, we see some similarities. But we cannot glean too much from this data yet as we would like to see the three month average for Aug-Sept-Oct and Sept-Oct-Nov to further see if we are on track for a strong influence from El Niño. Current forecast are calling for a moderate event. According to Sean Collins: "As of early September NOAA is calling for a slight increase for a moderate El Niño throughout the 2009 Fall with Eastern and Central Pacific water temperatures a couple degrees higher than normal. Currently in late September, we have continued to observe relaxed ENE trade winds throughout the Central Pacific, and the recent tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific have seemed to stall out and meander just southwest of Baja instead of tracking farther toward Hawaii. These factors indicate that water temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific will continue to warm greater than normal, and perhaps even slightly more than expected by NOAA. Whatever the case, the North Pacific should certainly expect a stronger swell season during Fall and Winter 2009-2010 due to the increasing El Niño influence." It's important to note that El Niño does not guarantee pumping or epic surf throughout the Pacific for the fall and winter months, nor are the below long range outlooks guaranteed to come to fruition. However it's influence does tip some contributing factors in our favor and overall we can expect more consistent and intense storm activity in a more southerly region of the North Pacific, leading to higher than average and more 'westerly' surf for California, Baja and the west facing breaks of Mexico and Central/South America. In addition, California and Hawaii will likely see an increase in precipitation and stormy weather, with plenty of snow showing in the mountains of California. 2009 Tropical Season With warm sea surface temps in the Eastern North Pacific, especially off the coast of Central America/Mainland Mexico and Southern Baja, there is ample fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop and maintain strength for significant periods of time, depending on their exact location and track. While it hasn't been an overly impressive tropical season in the East Pacific thus far, don't be surprised to see an energetic end to September, with that activity potentially lasting well into October and beyond. The primary beneficiaries of swell during that time will be Southern Baja and Northern Mexico, although those areas will also see an increased chance for tropical storm/hurricane landfall as, historically speaking, late season and El Niño year storms tend to re-curve back to the north or northeast with greater frequency than average. California Heading into the Northern Hemisphere late fall and winter months, on a long term basis we can expect to see a less persistent ridge of high pressure over Southern and Central California. With this protective blanket gone, the storm track is able to dip further south, resulting in more 'westerly' swells for California. For Southern California this can be especially meaningful, as the more westerly swells are less susceptible to blockage from Point Conception and are more of a direct hit, resulting in larger and more widespread surf throughout the region. Of course, with the more southerly diving storms we'll also see an increase in precipitation, onshore wind and overall bad weather for much of the state. For you skiers and snowboarders out there, the silver lining is that Tahoe, Mammoth and even many of the Southern California resorts have a good shot of ample snowfall this winter, although it will be more of the heavy, sierra cement variety as El Niño winters are relatively warm, temperature wise. In addition to the potential southerly displaced storm track in the North Pacific, the warmer than normal water temps that we're seeing can strengthen storms as they develop. Mid latitude storms are largely fueled by temperature contrasts and the larger the temperature gradient between the cold air moving down from arctic and the warm air (thanks to that warmer than normal water) over the region, the stronger and the wind/storm can be. So, in addition to a more southerly storm track and the resulting more westerly swells, the storms themselves will also be more intense. Again, this a long term average and on a day to day basis we could see something completely different...weather and swell have a funny way of doing whatever they want, regardless of what Chris Farley would call 'The Niño'. Hawaii Heading further out into the Pacific, the north and west facing shores of Hawaii can and will see large, stormy surf throughout the winter, with higher than average Kona wind days as the southerly based storms sweep over the Islands. Of course that also means some of the windward breaks could be a more consistent option with a higher than average number of clean days (versus the normally blown out conditions caused by the easterly trades). Much like the East Pacific basin, heading south could be a good call. The north facing areas of French Polynesia, and many of the other north facing reefs of the South Pacific, can receive a portion of the swells that slam the North Shore of Oahu/Hawaii, but with better and less stormy conditions. Pacific Northwest Oregon , Washington and Southern British Columbia typically enjoy milder than normal winters with El Niño in place. Air temps can be a little warmer and, with the storm track often split far to the north and well to the south (the split jet stream flow mentioned above), precipitation and overall stormy weather will be less than average. Surf potential is still fairly high, but there will be less of the storm and wind driven variety and a higher amount of cleaner days and more favorable weather. Of course if you're a skier or snowboarder in the Pacific Northwest, the news of El Niño isn't all that good. With warmer and dryer than normal conditions expected, your playground could be a bit bare. Could be a cause of concern for the 2010 Winter Olympics in Whistler, British Columbia. We'll see... Mexico, Central and South America With the increased storminess in California and Northern Baja, looking south could be a good call this winter, especially if/when we start to see a long term pattern of more southerly based storms. As we mentioned above, the onset of El Niño can produce more intense and southerly displaced storms, which is good news for the west facing surf spots from Southern Baja to South America. Starting in Southern Baja, the region will enjoy much of the larger and more westerly surf that is generated, but the weather and conditions will be better than Central and Southern California. That's not to say the area will be completely spared from increased storminess and precipitation; actually, it's just the opposite, with an increase in stormy weather days. Some of the southern most diving storms will bring periods of unsettled weather, especially for South/Central Baja, but those episodes will occur with less frequency than in California. The further south you head, the better your chances of getting out of the stormy weather and into solid, clean surf. The west facing breaks of Northern Mainland Mexico, parts of Central America, Ecuador, and Northern Peru should enjoy quite an active North Pacific swell season in 2009-2010. And, as with all the regions above, these areas will also benefit from the stronger than normal storms and their location in the more southerly latitudes of the North Pacific; the closer and stronger the storm is to a particular location, the stronger the resulting swell for that region will be. Throw in the very crucial element of generally good weather and favorable conditions and you have a strong, long term 'best bet' from November through March or April this year from northern Mainland Mexico through Peru. Overall, it appears that we could have plenty of options throughout the Pacific this winter, whether we surf, snowboard or ski. Keep an eye on the forecasts as we'll certainly dial you into and help you score the best surf conditions possible wherever you may be. MORE FORECAST SURFLINE HOME PAGE |
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Comments: (62) Add Your Comment
cloud warrior 02/25/2010 10:19 AM
You need to come to salinas ecuador to surf. Its good this year and the women are even better. I moved to ecuador last year and i'll probaly die here. This place has it all and its dirt cheap to live me and a female roomate have everything we want for $8oo a month. that in cludes utilities food gas cable phone. We live in cuenca and drive to the coast every weekend. Cuenca is 8200 ft above sea level and stays between 50 and 80 degress all the time. See ya there
dukster 10/17/2009 05:47 PM
yee haw!!!!! i love it when its huge and windy everyday!!!See ya'll at swamis
oregon guys a fucking redneck
Zoot Allures from Colton,Ca. 10/17/2009 04:06 PM
I can't believe the post by Snot Vinegar talking about el nino and water for Arizona! It's a goddamn desert like California and shouldn't have ANY water diverted! Rivers deposit sediment that provides estuary growth (for all sea life!) and SANDBARS to get shacked in! More surf, more get involved to fight pollution from golf courses, methane-shitting cows, and too many people- sterilize all earthlings! Go El Cap!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MC Such'n'such 10/15/2009 09:01 PM
It seems like forecasters say every year is an 'el nino' year and then we end up with less than average rainfall in socal. California weather forecasting seems to be an exercise in hyperbole.
Vickie Hays 10/14/2009 07:09 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
was this last year the record for the "the smallest waves ever"???
townboi 10/01/2009 03:07 PM
where is the atlantic update? interested to hear your ridiculous claims regarding the atlantic...
lol @ replying... "simply not true"
editor reply:
Coming in a few days. Analysis takes time my friend. My comment was that your analogy is simply not true. El Nino impacts are felt globally.
jul 10/01/2009 03:06 PM
what about indonesia this winter? think it will be worst or better for the indian ocean...,?
JOHN CASTILLO 09/30/2009 04:33 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
Colombia, the Pacific coast is FARC country, Your body won't be discoverd either!
mike 09/30/2009 01:33 PM
El Nino brings larger swell and increased flurries of aggression to Southern California.
Peruviano 09/30/2009 09:41 AM
Go surfing PAPA
The Cliffhanger 09/30/2009 06:47 AM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Nickname
Sounds like big closeouts to me.I guess me and 500 friends can surf Swamis.
jorkingson 09/29/2009 10:16 AM
This better be not fall through. I like my winters nice and active, storm. rain, heat, clouds, waves. BRING IT ON
skip carpowich 09/28/2009 10:20 PM * PREMIUM MEMBER - Real Name
Good stuff man can't wait for some swells!
Elias 09/27/2009 08:48 PM
No vengan a PERU ya estamos completos!!... jaja, here in peru we are going to have good time
scott pinegar 09/25/2009 09:03 AM
View All Comments (62 comments)
This is good news. I live in the Arizona desert so I don't make to the coast as often as I would like where I grew up. The increased storm activity will impact us greatly however, increasing our snow pack in the mountainous regions of our state, giving us much needed water, the rain in the desert areas will help stimulate more work for me (I'm a roofer) thus will allow me more opportunities to dip in the water at thirtenth st. seal, beach with a strong west, north west pouring in.....
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