Surfline's very own Sean Collins replies:

Wow. We thought last summer was bad, but this summer has been worse. But you know, it's not really a surprise as we kinda called for this to happen way back in April of this year. See Surfline's April Wavetraks Newsletter's Pacific Outlook.

As expected way back in April, dominant high pressure in the Southern Hemisphere has continued to prevent the storm track down under from getting a good aim on California, and most of the swells have been directed toward South America. I think we had one decent swell in each month of May, June and another in July, but overall extremely poor results from the Southern Hemisphere this year. As far as cycles go, things should change pretty quick as these high pressure-blocking scenarios only usually last a few months, and we are due for a change which can only be for the better. Hopefully late summer and fall will pump!

Closer to home, the strong Eastern Pacific high pressure system last spring and those strong northwesterly winds off the California coast created very strong upwelling and very cold water during the entire spring – even down to the high 40's in some areas. Although local water temperatures have since attempted to warm up from time to time, the warm water is actually only a thin layer on top of remaining cold water below. As a result, whenever the wind blows hard, upwelling off the headlands and deepwater canyons like Point Dume, Palos Verdes, Newport Canyon, Dana Point, and La Jolla force cold water to the surface. And then these cold pockets of water (high 50's) drift down the coast. So just when we get into boardshorts, a couple days of heavy winds will put us right back into full suits.

Our tropical season is also faltering but not really a surprise. Tropical storms and hurricanes need warm water near 80 degrees to maintain their strength. Cold pockets of water left over from our windy, cold spring are still located off the tip of Baja and restrict any tropical storms or hurricanes from getting into California's swell window. Tropical Storm Eugene in July was the only storm to even make into our window and it immediately died once it hit that cold water. The water temperatures off Baja are slowly warming up and hopefully we can look forward to increased tropical activity later in August and September, but we're kinda running out of time in this year's tropical season.

Regarding the red tides -- every year, we always have red tides in the spring. We even have a quarantine on clams and other shellfish during the spring because it is known that shellfish accumulate the red tide toxins and therefore can be poisonous to human consumption. The reason we have red tides in the spring is for a number of reasons – primarily due to plankton blooms as the water temperatures begin to warm up, and from the nutrients coming to the surface from the increased upwelling we experience in spring. Some surfers aren't bothered by the red tide at all, but others often complain of sinus and ear infections from the red tide. I guess everybody is different but it can't be good.

In my experience, the red tide episodes have almost always been set off by rapid drops of water temperatures, which is typical in spring. In Southern California, the trigger is when the water begins to warm up to around the mid 60's and then all of a sudden we have a few windy days with upwelling, and the resulting cold water snap back down to the low 60's or high 50's sets off a red tide bloom. You can paddle through warmer green water but once you paddle into the red water it can be more than a few degrees colder. I don't know the exact science behind why that happens, it just simply does.

When the overall water temperatures along the coast reach the 68 degree mark, the red tides begin to disappear - much like in mid July of this year when water temperatures were approaching 70 degrees in many areas. Unfortunately, if that 68-70 degree water is only a thin layer of water over a much colder mass
below, like it was in July, another couple of windy days will bring yet another red tide bloom. The last couple of weeks in July were very windy, and as expected, the red tides came back in force. So until the water warms up "deeper" below the surface, we'll continue to have episodes of red tide blooms. And for the water to get warmer, we need a couple weeks of light to moderate winds and/or a south wind coastal eddy to develop. The way this summer is going, it might not be until the water goes consistently cooler again in the fall before the red tides disappear.

As far as the jellyfish, who knows. I remember a horrible year in the late 60's when we had so many jellyfish you couldn't surf anywhere without getting stung. For some reason they were torn up by the surf so we would get little stinging pieces of them stuck in our wetsuits. Yeah, now that was a bummer, and far worse stings than the ones we have now… Some theories are that the jellyfish have come in to feed on the increased local plankton blooms.

Additionally, from a fishing perspective, there have been some fingers of warm tropical water extending up along the coast of Baja and there are reports of tropical yellowfin tuna and dorado (they like 70 degree water) mixing with albacore (they like 64 degree water) within 80 miles of San Diego. It seems logical that local visits by jellyfish, giant squid, little red crabs, etc. are all tied into these tropical currents but nobody really knows for sure. It seems every couple of years we have new strange critters visiting us for some reason and I suspect they are tied in with the currents coming up from Baja.

So overall, we need less wind, and when the water warms up to a solid 68 degrees or more and has a chance to extend deeper, then the red tides will disappear. More than likely the jellyfish will disappear as well. Until then, your best bet will be to keep your full suit with you at all times this summer, and you might also want to carry a little vinegar for the jellyfish stings. Otherwise, rubbing wet sand on the affected area helps to get the sting out. And ear plugs may help to prevent those with sensitive ears from getting bad reactions from the red tides. Or better yet, just don't fall off or duckdive!

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Here's what Surfrider says about Red Tides